ATL: LAURA - Models

[cp79]

Will be curious to see if Marco impacts Laura in any way, whether it be with its strength and walled waters or track. Guess it depends how fast these systems move. I would imagine if Marco is making landfall in NO while Laura is approaching the Keys, the outflow could bump it East a bit.

[eastcoastFL]

Since the tracks of both storms overlap, if Marco gets stronger than expected its upwelling may help to weaken Laura prior to landfall.

Would upwelling have much effect with a steadily moving storm like Marco?

[Steve]

^^. It’s still August, so it’s going to be strong (Atlantic high pressure). GFS hits around Slidell with Marco at TS or Cat 1 @ 998 Monday afternoon and Morgan City with strong 964 Cat 2 Wednesday evening. Weekend just got a little longer.

[supercane4867]

Since the tracks of both storms overlap, if Marco gets stronger than expected its upwelling may help to weaken Laura prior to landfall.

Would upwelling have much effect with a steadily moving storm like Marco?

Warm waters in the northern Gulf aren’t very deep. It won’t take much to do the job.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Canadian

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[AtlanticWind]

Is this ever happened?
Same area getting hit by 2 storms in less than 72 hours

[StPeteMike]

Though Marco has the potential to upswell some cooler waters, still above 81 F though, Marco won’t go over the warm waters around the Keys that Laura might possibly go over.

[Blown Away]

HWRF has been @degree slower each of the past 3-4 runs.

[Cat5James]

Is the MLC starting to swing North as the HWRF suggested?

[eastcoastFL]

HMON @27 hrs

[ronjon]

12z CMC now swings much further east moving Laura more N-NW in the eastern GOM. Landfall looks just west of Panama City Beach. We might have to be prepared for more model shifts east in the GOM as it appears Marcos strength and more northward track is eroding a piece of the Atlantic ridge off to allow Laura to move more N-NW once rounding the keys.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020082212&fh=84

[Cat5James]

HMON @27 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020082212/hmon_ref_13L_9.png

Slight north shift and more organized then prior run

[eastcoastFL]

HMON @27 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020082212/hmon_ref_13L_9.png

Slight north shift and more organized then prior run

It’s odd though because the frame before that it’s basically due south of there

[Cat5James]

HMON @27 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020082212/hmon_ref_13L_9.png

Slight north shift and more organized then prior run

It’s odd though because the frame before that it’s basically due south of there

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020082212/hmon_ref_13L_8.png

What is being depicted is the land interaction forces Laura to consolidate north of the island... similar to what took place with Isaias

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF @ 18hrs

[eastcoastFL]

Slight north shift and more organized then prior run

It’s odd though because the frame before that it’s basically due south of there

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020082212/hmon_ref_13L_8.png

What is being depicted is the land interaction forces Laura to consolidate north of the island... similar to what took place with Isaias

Ok thanks. That makes sense.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Again much slower than 06z

[ronjon]

12z HWRF of Marco at 18 hrs is more than a full degree longitude further east and about half degree further north than the 06z run. Its also much stronger at 990 mb vs 1006 mb in 06z run. Wonder what implications this has for Laura's future track?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=14L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020082212&fh=18

[PTPatrick]

12z HWRF... Again much slower than 06z

Slower should portend a slightly more west track in the gulf than the last run, I “think “

[eastcoastFL]

HMON inland Cuba 42 hrs