ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[alienstorm]

I am not sure what they see but on visible I just dont see a center where their fix is at. Maybe they are waiting for recon to get there, but I believe there wont be any tonight.

[TheStormExpert]

NHC is quite bullish on future intensity in the Gulf.

They dont show it weakening at all over Hispaniola

INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

85 MPH is not that bullish considering it’s late-August and heading straight into the GoM. I know that could change but they’ve been pretty consistent for several advisories for now.

[Sanibel]

It might be jumping above the islands...

[Beef Stew]

In regards to the Greater Antilles "Shredder"- the mountainous terrain absolutely wrecks havoc on well structured systems because it grinds momentum built up by well-defined and continuous circulation to a halt. Once the core of a powerful cyclone is disrupted and choked out by elevation like this, it takes a while to recover. A disorganized system on the other hand has far less dynamic stability and momentum to conserve, so tracking over elevated regions isn't a death sentence. In the case of Laura (where stacking is already proving hard to come by) there just isn't that much to severely disrupt, much less kill. In some cases, it actually aids a storm (looking at you, Isaias) by cutting off the 'slop' and allowing a reformation to occur around better defined circulation. I don't think Laura gets killed by the GA's, and neither does the NHC. It's more likely that interaction just stalls Laura's strengthening prior to the gulf, seeing as land is less conductive than ocean for intensification.

In essence, if you crash a new Ferrari into a tree... it's going to have a lot of damage. If you crash a totaled Oldsmobile... it's not getting more totaled.

[eastcoastFL]

It’s weird seeing Hurricane Watches up for the Northern Gulf Coast on the Marco graphic but not Laura.

Cuba is even weirder. They have TS Warnings for the west coast from Marco and on the east coast from Laura and nothing in the middle

[Kingarabian]

NHC is quite bullish on future intensity in the Gulf.

They dont show it weakening at all over Hispaniola

INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

85 MPH is not that bullish considering it’s late-August and heading straight into the GoM. I know that could change but they’ve been pretty consistent for several advisories for now.

Maybe could be due to them considering the Euro's intensity. The Euro in prior years is notorious (at least this is true for the EPAC) to initialize Cat.4 hurricanes as 999mb TS's.

[supercane4867]

NHC is quite bullish on future intensity in the Gulf.

They dont show it weakening at all over Hispaniola

INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

85 MPH is not that bullish considering it’s late-August and heading straight into the GoM. I know that could change but they’ve been pretty consistent for several advisories for now.

Read the discussion. They stated this is conservative and noted very favorable environment ahead.

[Kingarabian]

Read the discussion. They stated this is conservative and noted very favorable environment ahead.

Yup. They have some time to see what it does and how it interacts with land in the next 24 hours. If it's stronger then I'm pretty sure they will go with the higher end guidance.

[gfsperpendicular]

Laura, but there's no land

[Kat5]

It might be jumping above the islands...

Seems like it...

[StPeteMike]

It will be interesting to see if HWRF is right about the jump north. It has been pretty spot on when it comes to its short-term forecasting.

[BobHarlem]

If they recenter it it'll be in the 11PM, 5PM is just too early to tell without recon.

[Kazmit]

Hmm... some are expecting it to jump above Hispaniola, others below.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmm... some are expecting it to jump above Hispaniola, others below.

Either one seems like fair game right now. Despite looking pretty good on satellite now, radar is still pretty ambiguous with several areas that seem to be swirling around. Depending on which vort becomes the dominant circulation center, it either option seems possible.

[CourierPR]

Hmm... some are expecting it to jump above Hispaniola, others below.

I would think that any center reformation would follow the convection to the north.

[FLpanhandle91]

I see 18.5N 67.5W as the center on radar.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1297283924175933440

[Do_For_Love]

Gonna be a bumpy ride for Laura (and those dealing with her rains) for the next couple days. After that, Laura has a shot to be a significant hurricane and maybe our first major of the year, depending on how everything plays out. Definitely a dangerous situation, especially with Marco possibly impacting similar areas...

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1297287967862665216




GFS wants the HWRF solution

[Blown Away]

It might be jumping above the islands...

Not sure where you are seeing that.