ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

NHC keeps migrating the center of the cone westward. Started out in Florida and is now on the TX/LA border.....see a trend here? A westward track will allow Laura more time over the hot hot GOM. I fear for the worst with this future hurricane.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Guantanamo Bay Radar

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate ... e=PPIZH240

was hoping nobody posted the link.. so the site doe snot crash.. lol

[SoupBone]

I'm gonna ask this again now that more people are awake, but how much impact does Marco have on Laura, with him leaving an open door for her to follow? Does high pressure typically build back in fast enough to shut that door and push her more west?

[Visioen]

I'm thinking about a worst case scenario where the LLC smashes itself against the hight terrain on the eastern side of Cuba, after which a new one forms under the convection of the MLC and the system goes just south of Cuba over the extremely warm waters there. Not saying this will happen, just a hypothetical scenario that seems possible to me.

[alan1961]

NHC have their centre here with there 11am co-ordinates 19.2N 73.2W

[Ken711]

NHC seeing intensification approaching landfall with the 100 mph inland.

INIT 23/1500Z 19.2N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

[alienstorm]

Seems to be moving slightly north of due west (W - WNW) so it should clip the eastern portion of Cuba and then ride along the south shore of Cuba. Not good for those folks down the road since this would enable Laura to continue to instensify.

[NevadaFan18]

I'm gonna ask this again now that more people are awake, but how much impact does Marco have on Laura, with him leaving an open door for her to follow? Does high pressure typically build back in fast enough to shut that door and push her more west?

The latent heat released from Marco will create a heat sink, in this case to the north of the storm. The stronger Marco is, the more latent heat it will release, the stronger a high pressure builds to the north. This in hand drives Laura more west.

[NevadaFan18]

NHC have their centre here with there 11am co-ordinates 19.2N 73.2W

https://img.techpowerup.org/200823/screenhunter-01-aug-23-16-37.gif

According to the Guantanamo radar, it looks like the LLC might be just off the coast of the SW peninsula of Haiti.

[tolakram]

NHC have their centre here with there 11am co-ordinates 19.2N 73.2W

https://img.techpowerup.org/200823/screenhunter-01-aug-23-16-37.gif

According to the Guantanamo radar, it looks like the LLC might be just off the coast of the SW peninsula of Haiti.

MLC at that distance, keep an eye on it as the curculation gets closer to the radar site.

[NevadaFan18]

https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/stat ... 20704?s=21

From the recent ASCAT pass, it looks like the LLC is near/on the SW peninsula of Haiti.

[galvestontx]

Just booked 5 nights in San Antonio Hilton starting Thursday.

[Michele B]

That is what Laura will ultimately do , provided that Marco does not become a very strong cyclone, which could leave behind a bigger weakness. However, if it goes as forecast, Marco will weaken as it approaches the North Central Gulf late Monday, and the ridge will build in strong to guide Laura right on Marco's heels.

Right, and I guess that's my point. Following in Marco's weakness, at least mostly, would still lend itself to a Central Louisiana solution unless the ridge builds back in faster than expected behind Marco. So Marco's timing and placement will be key to Laura's ultimate arrival track.

"unless the ridge builds back in"
That is exactly what the Euro is forecasting. It seems to have a better grasp than the GPS on the more Southern track over Cuba and may end up nailing the expanding ridge as well.

“Unless the ridge builds back in...”

Will Marco “push” the ridge?
Will he “punch” through it?

I don’t understand how that happens. I don’t remember hearing about this phenomenon before.

I thought a hurricane has to “run around” and was “steered”. By a HP ridge.

I thought a ridge builds or recedes based on jet stream movement?

Can someone enlighten me what this means and how it works?

[mpic]

Just booked 5 nights in San Antonio Hilton starting Thursday.

With 7 dogs, I'll be riding it out in my mobile home. However, I do have a to go bag etc. packed in the car just in case. Going to be crowded lol. I'm more prepared for rhis one than I've ever been...adding something new after each one.

[Beef Stew]

NHC seeing intensification approaching landfall with the 100 mph inland.

INIT 23/1500Z 19.2N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 30.9N 94.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 35.7N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

And that may even be a conservative forecast, however I agree with keeping it on the lower end until Laura gets into the gulf. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC bump the peak up to a major (115 MPH) on Tuesday's 03z or 09z update after she finally gets back over water, assuming no unforeseen changes.

[Nederlander]

Just booked 5 nights in San Antonio Hilton starting Thursday.

Might want to reserve Wed night too just in case. If you did have to evacuate, Thursday would be too late. You can always cancel it if you don’t need to leave.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1297567586587205634

[eastcoastFL]

From surface obs and satellite and other stuff..

the center is over water west of Port au Prince and looks due west.

already appears wsw of the NHC track and increasing..

That would explain the bursting pink cloud tops in the area SW of Haiti right now.

[eastcoastFL]

A developing and organizing TC over Hispaniola!? 2020 never ceases to surprise! And to think a few days ago I was starting to write this storm off due to its very crappy appearance.

All in all it looks like a major hurricane landfall is becoming more and more likely for someone along the U.S. Gulf Coast mid-week.


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/goes16_vis_13L_202008231132.gif

I don’t think I’ll be writing off any storms until they actually dissipate. Anything is possible during peak season

[TheAustinMan]

While the storms are different and headed on their own unique paths, the scene in the western Atlantic this morning is remarkably reminiscent of a similar scene in August 2004, with storms at similar intensities.

4.8 MB. Source: Bonnie/Charley image from the now defunct website Operational Significant Event Imagery. RGB composite of Marco and Laura made using data from NASA MSFC.