ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12Z GFS. Note it appears to have init'ed a little too far north. Not sure how much it matters.

https://i.imgur.com/802DhRH.gif

I think it's significant, because a more southern track south of Cuba and into the Gulf would result in a more organized storm entering the Gulf. What's crazy is that we're talking about differences of 10-20 miles over the next day resulting in major changes to intensity.

[SoupBone]

The one consistency so far from last night into today, is that the swings are becoming less and less in the model runs. This is where they'll start to really hone in.

[LarryWx]

All of those north outlier HWRF runs through as recent as 12Z yesterday taking Laura to the north of PR and Hispaniola when almost all other models had already gone quite a bit further south? Big fail.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS initialization definitely is a tad too much to the north.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1297565620037451777

[ColdMiser123]

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 19.4N 72.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 19.9N 76.7W 1000 43
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 21.3N 80.4W 999 43
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 22.8N 84.0W 995 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 24.1N 87.2W 989 55
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.6N 90.0W 981 60
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 27.5N 92.4W 958 74
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.7N 93.8W 945 80
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 32.4N 93.9W 970 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 93.2W 981 32
1200UTC 28.08.2020 120 36.5N 91.6W 983 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.6N 88.1W 979 42
1200UTC 29.08.2020 144 38.3N 82.0W 978 27

[SoupBone]

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 19.4N 72.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 19.9N 76.7W 1000 43
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 21.3N 80.4W 999 43
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 22.8N 84.0W 995 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 24.1N 87.2W 989 55
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.6N 90.0W 981 60
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 27.5N 92.4W 958 74
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.7N 93.8W 945 80
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 32.4N 93.9W 970 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 93.2W 981 32
1200UTC 28.08.2020 120 36.5N 91.6W 983 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.6N 88.1W 979 42
1200UTC 29.08.2020 144 38.3N 82.0W 978 27

That position of the center makes her trek across Cuba huge in terms of track. These next set of model runs are going to be critical IMO.

[Highteeld]

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 19.4N 72.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 19.9N 76.7W 1000 43
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 21.3N 80.4W 999 43
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 22.8N 84.0W 995 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 24.1N 87.2W 989 55
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.6N 90.0W 981 60
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 27.5N 92.4W 958 74
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.7N 93.8W 945 80
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 32.4N 93.9W 970 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 93.2W 981 32
1200UTC 28.08.2020 120 36.5N 91.6W 983 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.6N 88.1W 979 42
1200UTC 29.08.2020 144 38.3N 82.0W 978 27

Could you link that in the forum? I had it bookmarked but got a new computer XD

[ColdMiser123]

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 19.4N 72.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 19.9N 76.7W 1000 43
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 21.3N 80.4W 999 43
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 22.8N 84.0W 995 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 24.1N 87.2W 989 55
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.6N 90.0W 981 60
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 27.5N 92.4W 958 74
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.7N 93.8W 945 80
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 32.4N 93.9W 970 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 93.2W 981 32
1200UTC 28.08.2020 120 36.5N 91.6W 983 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.6N 88.1W 979 42
1200UTC 29.08.2020 144 38.3N 82.0W 978 27

Could you link that in the forum? I had it bookmarked but got a new computer XD

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

[supercane4867]

945mb is extremely bullish for the UKMET. Something you don’t see very often.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1297564617963720704

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z UKMET takes it pretty far into the Caribbean, at least compared to the GFS.

[Highteeld]

For reference,this is the landfall location of Laura per UKmet near Beaumont, Texas

[SoupBone]

For whatever it's worth, the CMC at 60 hours.

[SoupBone]

CMC at 66 hours, landfall in SELA.

[KWT]

Looking at the GFS track and even a small adjustment SW keeps the system overwater and parallel to land for most of the way. Would mean it emerging into the gulf stronger than currently estimated as well.

[SoupBone]

The one consistency so far from last night into today, is that the swings are becoming less and less in the model runs. This is where they'll start to really hone in.

If I had a dollar for every time I heard this one and another surprise came along

I didn't suggest things couldn't change, but the models are clustering in one area right now (SWLA-Texas Border). It's a factual statement. Of course things can change.

The HMON looks like it initialized in the right spot, the HWRF is a little SW of the official center. These two models take forever to update.

[Beef Stew]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1297575313707343872




The HWRF is coming in further south and has Laura back over water around the Jardines de la Reina at about 21 hours. It cuts Laura across NW Cuba at about 30, and is about to have her enter the gulf at 36. More or less the same exit position as the 06z run, but with a more organized 996 mb system.

[ColdMiser123]

HWRF now goes south of Cuba.

[Highteeld]

JMO, but I think this run of the HWRF going south of Cuba should give it extra weight when considering its extended forecast in the GOM, considering it looks to actually go south of Cuba in the near term.