ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cat5James]

Just by the visual radar it appears the circulation is picking up a more northward component then before.. of course its hard to tell by eye alone

[NDG]

In my opinion Laura has taken a hit from Hispaniola and is about to take another worse one from Cuba...

Cuba's mountains are much less of an obstacle than the DR and Haiti. Cuba has fairly high mountains only in the southeast portion; Laura will be past them in a few hours. The rest gets quite flat except for a small portion in central Cuba.
It is also so narrow from north to south that moisture is not blocked off as much at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CGfjND.png

And by going in through the Gtmo Bay is avoiding the higher terrain to the west of Santiago de Cuba.

[Hurricaneman]

There also could be something going on in the convection SW of the low, knowing this system it might just relocate there to throw everyone off

[NDG]

Just by the visual radar it appears the circulation is picking up a more northward component then before.. of course its hard to tell by eye alone

Radar is correct, by the reports from the naval base it came inland just east of the base.

[Hammy]

In my opinion Laura has taken a hit from Hispaniola and is about to take another worse one from Cuba...

Cuba's mountains are much less of an obstacle than the DR and Haiti. Cuba has fairly high mountains only in the southeast portion; Laura will be past them in a few hours. The rest gets quite flat except for a small portion in central Cuba.
It is also so narrow from north to south that moisture is not blocked off as much at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CGfjND.png

Why was Ike so severely affected after moving over Cuba--was it simply the amount of time it took to cross it?

[CrazyC83]

In my opinion Laura has taken a hit from Hispaniola and is about to take another worse one from Cuba...

Cuba's mountains are much less of an obstacle than the DR and Haiti. Cuba has fairly high mountains only in the southeast portion; Laura will be past them in a few hours. The rest gets quite flat except for a small portion in central Cuba.
It is also so narrow from north to south that moisture is not blocked off as much at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CGfjND.png

Why was Ike so severely affected after moving over Cuba--was it simply the amount of time it took to cross it?

Ike crossed the length of Cuba. That said, its inner core survived its passage.

[Kingarabian]

The GOM can support a potent Cat.5 along the entire Texas coast, high end Cat.4 near LA and even a Cat.5 if the system is moving fast enough.

[hipshot]

If you look closely at the loop you can see the LLC being pulled westward into the building convention to its east.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=70&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_06&x=7282&y=6985.5

Wait a minute, how does the LLC get pulled westward but something to its east. BTW, the convention doesn't start tell tomorrow.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just by the visual radar it appears the circulation is picking up a more northward component then before.. of course its hard to tell by eye alone

Radar is correct, by the reports from the naval base it came inland just east of the base.

I can’t help but think this might have been nudged inland by the large convection blow up immediately to the SW. I would expect an erratic motion due to this process, or land interaction as well, but this may be the start of the wnw motion.

[Nuno]

In my opinion Laura has taken a hit from Hispaniola and is about to take another worse one from Cuba...

Cuba's mountains are much less of an obstacle than the DR and Haiti. Cuba has fairly high mountains only in the southeast portion; Laura will be past them in a few hours. The rest gets quite flat except for a small portion in central Cuba.
It is also so narrow from north to south that moisture is not blocked off as much at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CGfjND.png

Why was Ike so severely affected after moving over Cuba--was it simply the amount of time it took to cross it?

That played a part. Many storms have died out over Cuba and it wasn't the mountains that did them in. Ernesto in 2006 always stands out as a storm that weakened because it took the long route over the island.

[wx98]

Just by the visual radar it appears the circulation is picking up a more northward component then before.. of course its hard to tell by eye alone

Radar is correct, by the reports from the naval base it came inland just east of the base.

Looks like it’ll take about 2-3 hours to thread WNW through the mountains and out to the western side.

[aspen]

In my opinion Laura has taken a hit from Hispaniola and is about to take another worse one from Cuba...

Cuba's mountains are much less of an obstacle than the DR and Haiti. Cuba has fairly high mountains only in the southeast portion; Laura will be past them in a few hours. The rest gets quite flat except for a small portion in central Cuba.
It is also so narrow from north to south that moisture is not blocked off as much at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CGfjND.png

Why was Ike so severely affected after moving over Cuba--was it simply the amount of time it took to cross it?

I’m guessing it’s because Ike, being a system with a developed core, was far more fragile to land interaction compared to weak/broad systems like Isaias and Laura.

[HurricaneEdouard]

The GOM can support a potent Cat.5 along the entire Texas coast, high end Cat.4 near LA and even a Cat.5 if the system is moving fast enough.
https://i.imgur.com/JuoyYhR.png

This likely plays a role in the model runs; the strongest solutions are the more westerly solutions (and, oddly, bottom out just off the coast), partially due to the fact that if Laura is stronger it will feel the ridge more deeply and move more westward, but possibly due to the waters off Texas being particularly conducive for rapid intensification. I continue to expect a major hurricane in the Gulf, although I'd take the most extreme solutions with a liberal sprinkling of salt.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Cuba's mountains are much less of an obstacle than the DR and Haiti. Cuba has fairly high mountains only in the southeast portion; Laura will be past them in a few hours. The rest gets quite flat except for a small portion in central Cuba.
It is also so narrow from north to south that moisture is not blocked off as much at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CGfjND.png

Why was Ike so severely affected after moving over Cuba--was it simply the amount of time it took to cross it?

I’m guessing it’s because Ike, being a system with a developed core, was far more fragile to land interaction compared to weak/broad systems like Isaias and Laura.

Indeed. We saw this with Georges and Gustav as well, and many others. A major hurricane that tracks across Cuba or Hispaniola or both tends to have a difficult time getting reorganised in the Gulf; in fact, they nearly always underperform their intensity forecasts, and while the models predict they will restrengthen into major hurricanes, they tend to just broaden their windfield and make landfall as sprawling Category 2 hurricanes (often with a major hurricane's surge). If they move slowly, they sometimes have the time to restrengthen (which is what very nearly happened with Ike at the last second), but if they move too slowly, they run into the fact that the Gulf is easily upwelled outside of the Loop Current - so betting on a weaker storm than what the models predict, when it's a major hurricane encountering the Greater Antilles, is usually a safe bet.

(Same applies to outside the Gulf too, for that matter. David from 1979 comes to mind.)

[NDG]

Watching Ken Graham on TWC, hasn't even realized Laura made landfall keeps talking how it is south of the Base.

[captainbarbossa19]

The GOM can support a potent Cat.5 along the entire Texas coast, high end Cat.4 near LA and even a Cat.5 if the system is moving fast enough.
https://i.imgur.com/JuoyYhR.png

This likely plays a role in the model runs; the strongest solutions are the more westerly solutions (and, oddly, bottom out just off the coast), partially due to the fact that if Laura is stronger it will feel the ridge more deeply and move more westward, but possibly due to the waters off Texas being particularly conducive for rapid intensification. I continue to expect a major hurricane in the Gulf, although I'd take the most extreme solutions with a liberal sprinkling of salt.

I am really hoping for a weaker storm. I do not want anyone to get hit by a hurricane, but that looks almost impossible at this point.

[cheezyWXguy]

Watching Ken Graham on TWC, hasn't even realized Laura made landfall keeps talking how it is south of the Base.

https://i.imgur.com/CLzFjuY.gif

Can you link that radar?

[Nuno]

Why was Ike so severely affected after moving over Cuba--was it simply the amount of time it took to cross it?

I’m guessing it’s because Ike, being a system with a developed core, was far more fragile to land interaction compared to weak/broad systems like Isaias and Laura.

Indeed. We saw this with Georges and Gustav as well, and many others. A major hurricane that tracks across Cuba or Hispaniola or both tends to have a difficult time getting reorganised in the Gulf; in fact, they nearly always underperform their intensity forecasts, and while the models predict they will restrengthen into major hurricanes, they tend to just broaden their windfield and make landfall as sprawling Category 2 hurricanes (often with a major hurricane's surge). If they move slowly, they sometimes have the time to restrengthen (which is what very nearly happened with Ike at the last second), but if they move too slowly, they run into the fact that the Gulf is easily upwelled outside of the Loop Current - so betting on a weaker storm than what the models predict, when it's a major hurricane encountering the Greater Antilles, is usually a safe bet.

(Same applies to outside the Gulf too, for that matter. David from 1979 comes to mind.)

I would like to read a study comparing different storm intensities and how they fared after interaction with the Antilles. Would be interesting to compare developing cyclones with stronger ones.

[srainhoutx]

Watching Ken Graham on TWC, hasn't even realized Laura made landfall keeps talking how it is south of the Base.

https://i.imgur.com/CLzFjuY.gif

That's the mid level circulation.

[wx98]

Watching Ken Graham on TWC, hasn't even realized Laura made landfall keeps talking how it is south of the Base.

https://i.imgur.com/CLzFjuY.gif

That’s pretty clearly the LLC that close to radar, so landfall looks pretty open and shut here.