ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 24-48:

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hour 66:

[shah83]

GFS agreeing with Euro sentiments. Look at how it's not intensifying in the beginning of gulf journey...

[shiny-pebble]

I'm just not buying the models showing Laura going all the way through Cuba.... If you look at it right now its clearly not doing that and a possible center reformation is taking place even farther south.... Just my opinion

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Nederlander]

GFS agreeing with Euro sentiments. Look at how it's not intensifying in the beginning of gulf journey...

It looks to have initialized a little too far north again, and takes Laura across the spine of Cuba rather than over water.

[jaguars_22]

Looks more like it keeps a dead NW path all the way instead of a turn

[catskillfire51]

I notice it is strengthening the whole time except 48-54 hour time frame, seems kind of odd as conditions are supposed to be very good for intesification.

[Kingarabian]

GFS hours 48-72:

[bella_may]

Another East shift

[SoupBone]

Shift east. From Galveston to arounf the TexLa line.

[Kingarabian]

GFS hour 78 + trend:


Landfall would be in 81 hours at Cat.3 strength.

[PTrackerLA]

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1297725054889975810?s=20

I can't believe I just saw that, and I remember it being one of the first models to sniff out Harvey's RI.

[SoupBone]

Now watch the Euro swing back west closer this next run. Like I posted, I believe that the wild swings are over unless something throws a complete wrench into everything.

Looks like Marco hangs around like the Euro was showing too. That could have implications as to the final track.

[FixySLN]

The ridge keeping Laura from moving NNW, and Laura's exit from Cuba are going to be what determines the track. 6 hours and we should have a solid idea of what's going to happen, rather than window wiper model solutions.

Obligatory "I'm no pro, please listen to whatever your local government says regarding safety and evacuation."

[Hurricane Mike]

The ridge keeping Laura from moving NNW, and Laura's exit from Cuba are going to be what determines the track. 6 hours and we should have a solid idea of what's going to happen, rather than window wiper model solutions.

Obligatory "I'm no pro, please listen to whatever your local government says regarding safety and evacuation."

Yeah, I think by tomorrow night or atleast by Tuesday morning we'll have much better model consensus. I hope.

[Nederlander]

Now watch the Euro swing back west closer this next run. Like I posted, I believe that the wild swings are over unless something throws a complete wrench into everything.

Looks like Marco hangs around like the Euro was showing too. That could have implications as to the final track.

The problem is that the models keep tracking her over the majority of Cuba. Not saying it won’t happen, as it wouldn’t take much of a wobble, but Laura is consistently SW of initializations and that makes a huge difference in strength upon entering the GoM. Either way I don’t think Marco matters too much. It’s a bad series of model runs leading to the forecast spread. It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out for sure.

[Chemmers]

The nam model has it coming in a 929

[FixySLN]

The nam model has it coming in a 929

It's the NAM...I'm a big proponent of "Equal Opportunity Solutions"...but NAM.

[1900hurricane]

Yikes.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 75.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 0 20.5N 75.9W 1003 40
1200UTC 24.08.2020 12 21.1N 80.0W 1001 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 24 21.9N 83.4W 996 44
1200UTC 25.08.2020 36 23.1N 86.8W 992 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 48 24.2N 89.8W 984 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.5N 92.8W 968 71
0000UTC 27.08.2020 72 27.2N 95.0W 950 81
1200UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.2N 96.1W 948 64
0000UTC 28.08.2020 96 31.8N 96.3W 967 48
1200UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 95.4W 976 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 120 36.4N 93.3W 986 28
1200UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.0N 89.3W 978 39
0000UTC 30.08.2020 144 37.3N 82.5W 982 29

[cheezyWXguy]

Yikes.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 75.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2020 0 20.5N 75.9W 1003 40
1200UTC 24.08.2020 12 21.1N 80.0W 1001 39
0000UTC 25.08.2020 24 21.9N 83.4W 996 44
1200UTC 25.08.2020 36 23.1N 86.8W 992 51
0000UTC 26.08.2020 48 24.2N 89.8W 984 55
1200UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.5N 92.8W 968 71
0000UTC 27.08.2020 72 27.2N 95.0W 950 81
1200UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.2N 96.1W 948 64
0000UTC 28.08.2020 96 31.8N 96.3W 967 48
1200UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 95.4W 976 35
0000UTC 29.08.2020 120 36.4N 93.3W 986 28
1200UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.0N 89.3W 978 39
0000UTC 30.08.2020 144 37.3N 82.5W 982 29

woah, thats pretty far west. Is that the UKMET?