ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

Down to 987mb hour 30 on the 00z Euro.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1297767094935851009

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro down to 985mb hour 36. Stronger than the 12z and 18z so far.

00z Euro hour 48 980mb headed to Texas?

[Fancy1001]

According to ASCAT and new center has formed back East between Cuba and Jamaica. Might have to throw out the models until morning

Don't you mean West

[bella_may]

According to ASCAT and new center has formed back East between Cuba and Jamaica. Might have to throw out the models until morning

Don't you mean West

Yes lol sorry

[Highteeld]

Euro barely intensifies in the GOM, which I find not very convincing

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, virtually all the latest models are showing Laura with a more asymmetric (tilted, sheared) structure/wind-field right up until landfall in the U.S.

[CrazyC83]

Euro barely intensifies in the GOM, which I find not very convincing

Low resolution. That would likely be a major hurricane landfall.

[Hammy]

Euro barely intensifies in the GOM, which I find not very convincing

Low resolution. That would likely be a major hurricane landfall.

Cat 1. Looks like it'll be something like Isaac which also ended up with a pretty broad center and lower pressure after going over the GA.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro barely intensifies in the GOM, which I find not very convincing

Low resolution. That would likely be a major hurricane landfall.

Cat 1. Looks like it'll be something like Isaac which also ended up with a pretty broad center and lower pressure after going over the GA.

https://i.imgur.com/CGn7InY.png

it's at 65mph right now lol. i sadly doubt that it's only gaining 25mph at most in those conditions.

[USTropics]

Here are the 00z GFS ensembles. I've included a pink circle where the actual observed LLC is:

[Kingarabian]

Euro barely intensifies in the GOM, which I find not very convincing

Low resolution. That would likely be a major hurricane landfall.

Cat 1. Looks like it'll be something like Isaac which also ended up with a pretty broad center and lower pressure after going over the GA.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/CGn7InY.png[url]

That's plausible. Interesting to see how the pressure/wind relationship plays out. So far its been pretty normal.

[HouTXmetro]

Here are the 00z GFS ensembles. I've included a pink circle where the actual observed LLC is:

https://i.ibb.co/rv8q8Vg/image.png

Compared to earlier the GFS ensembles, less of a spread and much better agreement near TX/LA Border.

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensembles are quite spread still:


In fact, this is one of biggest spreads I've seen at 72 hours. Things remain VERY unclear and are evolving this morning, keep paying attention on the NGOM and especially Texas:

[Hammy]

Laura's been set back too much to strengthen as much as the earlier models expected by the looks of it, NAM coming in almost 15mb weaker for each position.

[Kingarabian]

Laura's been set back too much to strengthen as much as the earlier models expected by the looks of it, NAM coming in almost 15mb weaker for each position.

https://i.imgur.com/s0RQJFS.png

Michael did cat.5 it in 72 hours. Laura will have about 48 hours to get high end Cat.4 status.

[Hammy]

Laura's been set back too much to strengthen as much as the earlier models expected by the looks of it, NAM coming in almost 15mb weaker for each position.

https://i.imgur.com/s0RQJFS.png

Michael did cat.5 it in 72 hours. Laura will have about 48 hours to get high end Cat.4 status.

Laura has a broader core and has been dealing with land for the last 48 hours, something Michael didn't have trouble with and is likely factoring into the Cat 2-3 intensity runs.



Down to 962mb at 78h but winds look Cat 1-2. And significantly further south--00z had it well inland near Lufkin.

[stormlover2013]

Icon has shifted west

[Keldeo1997]

Strongest ICON run so far

[HouTXmetro]

As did the Euro last night.. Seems like the models shift west overnight and east during the day.