ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Just had a squall come through Key West. Tropical storm gusts. Got lucky here with the storm staying South of Cuba.

[Highteeld]

The convection is healthier now than it was a few hours ago. Its probably back to what it was yesterday before making landfall on Cuba's coast intensity wise

[NevadaFan18]

Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?

[eastcoastFL]

What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?

I'm not a meteorologist, but I would say New Orleans is in the clear for landfall, but could still get some impact. I think the most likely landfall, looking at the current models (ensembles), is in between Beaumont and Intercoastal City.

I wouldn’t be so focused on landfall the impacts will be far and wide from wherever it makes landfall.

[nutkin517]

This is the most frustrated I have ever been. Usually it is pretty obvious where they are going. If this is more of an Ike situation, should be ok here where I am in Beaumont. If it is a Rita situation, we need to leave. I just feel like it has been sitting by Cuba forever and a day at this point!

[Nederlander]

Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?

Model guidance has trended that way and has reached a better consensus is my guess. I haven’t heard anyone articulate from an atmospheric perspective why the sentiment is weaker. I do think a few on here think the NHC might be a little conservative on intensity though, to which I agree.

[eastcoastFL]

Laura really filling in

[MBryant]

What the Hurricanes DID is not relevant. It is currently disorganized and even with optimal conditions, it will take time to get organized enough to take advantage of these conditions. It certainly hasn't eliminated any possibility, but the probability has shifted a little.

[supercane4867]

Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?

Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.

[eastcoastFL]

It almost looks like Lauras inflow is pulling in from Marco on visible

[eastcoastFL]

What the Hurricanes DID is not relevant. It is currently disorganized and even with optimal conditions, it will take time to get organized enough to take advantage of these conditions. It certainly hasn't eliminated any possibility, but the probability has shifted a little.

It’s currently organizing itself just fine after being over land. Optimal conditions come once it passes that western Cuba edge. Still a long way to go

[Portastorm]

Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?

Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.

As a moderator and longtime member of this forum, I can vouch for the accuracy of supercane4867's statement

[jasons2k]

This is gonna be a big storm.

[Hurricaneman]

What the Hurricanes DID is not relevant. It is currently disorganized and even with optimal conditions, it will take time to get organized enough to take advantage of these conditions. It certainly hasn't eliminated any possibility, but the probability has shifted a little.

It’s currently organizing itself just fine after being over land. Optimal conditions come once it passes that western Cuba edge. Still a long way to go

Which will be late this evening

[Blinhart]

What the Hurricanes DID is not relevant. It is currently disorganized and even with optimal conditions, it will take time to get organized enough to take advantage of these conditions. It certainly hasn't eliminated any possibility, but the probability has shifted a little.

To me and many others, this is not that disorganized, and it is organizing very quickly, it could become a Hurricane before touching mainland Cuba again, so there is no reason for this to become a very large Major Hurricane.

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?

This is a great question. There tends to be an over-reliance on the deterministic models (GFS, Euro, operations runs) because its easier for the viewer to digest and you only have to consider one path. However, the ensembles of both the GFS and Euro are painting a different picture and more accurately represent the true risk area, probability -ise (most of the texas coast and most of the louisiana coast). I personally feel no more confident about either track or strength than I did last night, but there are two overarching themes here:

1) Laura has been consistently staying west of the guidance
2) Stronger solutions favor continued westward movement

[Skogebo]

Long time lurker here. I really enjoy reading everyone's input here. I learn so much. So thank you all for that.

Anyways, I'm in San Antonio, Texas. I'm supposed to fly out tomorrow to go to Pensacola to visit my sister in Gulf Breeze. I leave San Antonio at 830am, land in Houston, then take off again at 1130am. I have never flown this close to a Hurricane and feel like my flights will likely be delayed if not cancelled altogether. What do you all think? Is that window tomorrow still flyable? Would you?

[EquusStorm]

Bonnie-Charlie-esque

[Blinhart]

What areas would you say still need to watch for landfall? Should SELA be concerned?

I'm not a meteorologist, but I would say New Orleans is in the clear for landfall, but could still get some impact. I think the most likely landfall, looking at the current models (ensembles), is in between Beaumont and Intercoastal City.

I wouldn’t be so focused on landfall the impacts will be far and wide from wherever it makes landfall.

I'm sorry if I was downplaying the impacts of the system away from the center. I totally agree that this has the potential of having dramatic impact far away from where this makes landfall. But that is why I said it the way I did for New Orleans. I still believe New Orleans will get some impact from Laura, no matter where she makes landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

What the Hurricanes DID is not relevant. It is currently disorganized and even with optimal conditions, it will take time to get organized enough to take advantage of these conditions. It certainly hasn't eliminated any possibility, but the probability has shifted a little.

It’s currently organizing itself just fine after being over land. Optimal conditions come once it passes that western Cuba edge. Still a long way to go

Which will be late this evening

Yup. Plenty of time for this thing to ramp up in the gulf.