ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 480
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:40 pm
- Location: Lake Jackson, TX
- eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3922
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Blinhart wrote:
I'm not a meteorologist, but I would say New Orleans is in the clear for landfall, but could still get some impact. I think the most likely landfall, looking at the current models (ensembles), is in between Beaumont and Intercoastal City.
I wouldn’t be so focused on landfall the impacts will be far and wide from wherever it makes landfall.
I'm sorry if I was downplaying the impacts of the system away from the center. I totally agree that this has the potential of having dramatic impact far away from where this makes landfall. But that is why I said it the way I did for New Orleans. I still believe New Orleans will get some impact from Laura, no matter where she makes landfall.
You’re good, I was just reiterating for those that may not know
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Moisture fetch down to the Pacific is 1300nm+
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 16075
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aite, now will the NHC finally bump this to major hurricane strength in the next hour or will they first see how it fairs with the NW tip of Cuba?
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- HurryKane
- Category 5
- Posts: 1941
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:08 pm
- Location: Diamondhead, Mississippi
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
rigbyrigz wrote:Guess Laura will do the same, as she's broad where a broad should be broad broad broad.
A hundred and one mph of fun!

I’ve chewed off all my nails in anticipation of Laura...while my area is east of the cone you just never know.
4 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 51
- Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:51 pm
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:NevadaFan18 wrote:Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?
Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.
I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.
0 likes
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Kingarabian wrote:Aite, now will the NHC finally bump this to major hurricane strength in the next hour or will they first see how it fairs with the NW tip of Cuba?
I’m thinking they’ll go with a peak of 95 kt for this advisory, and then bump it to a MH peak once it finally clears Cuba.
1 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 326
- Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:02 pm
- Location: Where the eye makes landfall.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Have 14 hurricane chases under the belt now lol. Laura is going to come to my backyard so I guess that makes it easier.
As an old-school forecaster my take is that there is almost too much information piled into the forecasts. Sometimes it is better to just look at the steering charts and the energy in the water. These hurricanes always do what they want to do.
Michael was a Cat 2 when I went nappy-time at 11pm in Panama City, FL. Woke up 6 hours later to a Cat 3 that eventually reached Cat 5. You all get my drift... sometimes even now we really don't know.
Good luck out there fellow professional/amateur weather people! We're all on here because we love studying one of the most powerful forces in nature!
Chuck
As an old-school forecaster my take is that there is almost too much information piled into the forecasts. Sometimes it is better to just look at the steering charts and the energy in the water. These hurricanes always do what they want to do.
Michael was a Cat 2 when I went nappy-time at 11pm in Panama City, FL. Woke up 6 hours later to a Cat 3 that eventually reached Cat 5. You all get my drift... sometimes even now we really don't know.
Good luck out there fellow professional/amateur weather people! We're all on here because we love studying one of the most powerful forces in nature!
Chuck
13 likes
Although I have been a hurricane forecaster since 1980 that only means I've been wrong lots of times.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NevadaFan18 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:NevadaFan18 wrote:Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?
Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.
I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.
Mostly based on current organization trend and the fact that it has successfully avoided more landmass than expected. I won't be surprised to see the next recon finds an intensifying 55-60kt tropical storm or greater.
1 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 98
- Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:49 pm
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NevadaFan18 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:NevadaFan18 wrote:Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?
Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.
I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.
So if y'all are thinking stronger storm, are you thinking further west ultimately?
0 likes
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I made a precautionary reservation for tomorrow to Friday about 200 miles north, just in case. I like options.
Port Arthur Evacuation is now being reported on Radio. 6AM tomorrow.
Port Arthur Evacuation is now being reported on Radio. 6AM tomorrow.
Last edited by MBryant on Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Living at the intersection of Rita and Humberto and Ike and Harvey and Laura and Delta!
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HoustonFrog wrote:NevadaFan18 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.
I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.
So if y'all are thinking stronger storm, are you thinking further west ultimately?
It seems that way at least according to euro ensembles.
0 likes
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Orange County judge issues mandatory evacuation for nursing homes and voluntary evacuation for everyone else in OC.
https://www.facebook.com/KFDMNews/posts ... 8358228756
https://www.facebook.com/KFDMNews/posts ... 8358228756
0 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 51
- Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:51 pm
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
[tweet] https://twitter.com/mikemostwill/status ... 60769?s=21[/tweet]
Quite the lightning burst in the last couple frames there...
Quite the lightning burst in the last couple frames there...
0 likes
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Rail Dawg wrote:Have 14 hurricane chases under the belt now lol. Laura is going to come to my backyard so I guess that makes it easier.
As an old-school forecaster my take is that there is almost too much information piled into the forecasts. Sometimes it is better to just look at the steering charts and the energy in the water. These hurricanes always do what they want to do.
Michael was a Cat 2 when I went nappy-time at 11pm in Panama City, FL. Woke up 6 hours later to a Cat 3 that eventually reached Cat 5. You all get my drift... sometimes even now we really don't know.
Good luck out there fellow professional/amateur weather people! We're all on here because we love studying one of the most powerful forces in nature!
Chuck
So where are you planning on going to as of right now? I'm sure you can find hotels here in Crowley or in Jennings, which would give you a chance of going down to Hwy 14, I wouldn't suggest going any further south than that because of the potential Storm Surge.
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MBryant wrote:I made a precautionary reservation for tomorrow to Friday about 200 miles north, just in case. I like options.
Port Arthur Evacuation is now being reported on Radio. 6AM tomorrow.
Cameron Parish is under a Mandatory Evacuation.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Rail Dawg wrote:Have 14 hurricane chases under the belt now lol. Laura is going to come to my backyard so I guess that makes it easier.
As an old-school forecaster my take is that there is almost too much information piled into the forecasts. Sometimes it is better to just look at the steering charts and the energy in the water. These hurricanes always do what they want to do.
Michael was a Cat 2 when I went nappy-time at 11pm in Panama City, FL. Woke up 6 hours later to a Cat 3 that eventually reached Cat 5. You all get my drift... sometimes even now we really don't know.
Good luck out there fellow professional/amateur weather people! We're all on here because we love studying one of the most powerful forces in nature!
Chuck
Hey Dawg...
I remember your from Michael...I live in PC and I remember your posts about staging in a Parking Garage if I remember correctly.
Just curious, have you been back to PC since Michael? That storm changed everything around here and most of it not good.
Stay safe my friend and I look forward to your posts and obs in the coming days.
Stay safe!
0 likes
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 5197
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Laura has come a LONG way since this morning. I expect 65mph to 70mph on the next advisory.
I don’t even look at the model thread for strength, since most models perform lousy in that area this year. I think it will hit major status though
I don’t even look at the model thread for strength, since most models perform lousy in that area this year. I think it will hit major status though
1 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 57
- Joined: Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:00 pm
- Location: houston texas
- Contact:
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HoustonFrog wrote:NevadaFan18 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.
I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.
So if y'all are thinking stronger storm, are you thinking further west ultimately?
Right because the knowledgeable guys keep saying stronger storms go west of the course And weaker don’t.
0 likes
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Based on radar & radar loop I place the LLC near 22.1N & 82.1W, it took a big jog to the NW the last few hours but it appears to have gotten back on a WNW heading.


1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests