ATL: LAURA - Models

[Hurrilurker]

Landing in between Houston and New Orleans is about the best scenario given the circumstances, no?

I wouldn't say best scenario, but most likely scenario. The Best Scenario is for this to fall completely apart, which unfortunately won't happen.

Well yeah of course, but I mean assuming it does not dissipate (and it seems unlikely given the environment). Obviously it's not good for anyone near where it does cross, but avoiding 2 major population centers in the cone would be "good". Of course any factor at this point could easily swing it into one of those cities including how it interacts with the tip of Cuba. They're going to have a really hard time in the next few days determining who gets evacuation orders and who doesn't -- not easy to give that order for a large city, or to decide to hold off.

[LarryWx]

One 12Z EPS Laura member goes offshore from Savannah and then takes a sharp U turn back into Vero Beach on 9/3 as a strengthening H before then moving back up into inland GA/SC. So, FL is still not yet off the hook from Laura, much less the wave coming off Africa on Thursday.

[Pearl River]

With Marco weakening a lot sooner than expected, and he has been right of what the models have been forecasting, does anyone think this will affect Laura's movement in anyway?

[Nederlander]

I just laughed out loud TWC just showed the euro model and said it has been pretty consistent in bring Laura to the upper TX or SW LA coast lol

[FixySLN]

With Marco weakening a lot sooner than expected, and he has been right of what the models have been forecasting, does anyone think this will affect Laura's movement in anyway?

I think that was the eastern shift we saw last night. Marco stopped feeding that ridge, inhibiting it's ability to push her further west. Might have something to do with the Eastern adjustments we've seen today too.

[Blown Away]

The euro has been the outlier many times with this storm and been wrong more than I’m use to seeing.

[Haris]

NAM went pretty back to W. Houston area not out yet

[HoustonFrog]

NAM went pretty back to W. Houston area not out yet

Yeah big jump

[Steve]

I think the one thing to keep in mind is how Laura has been pretty consistently to the south of where the models have been forecasting. Doesn't mean it will stay that way of course but something to remember thus far.

Also appears that stronger = west by in large on these runs.

Those two points - couldn’t have said it better myself. Pretty much anything sub 1000mb goes into Texas.

Sub 1000?

[SoupBone]

NAM went pretty back to W. Houston area not out yet

I don't bad mouth models, I like to speak in data verification terms. Has the NAM ever held any high level of accuracy in its lifetime as a model?

[stormlover2013]

NAM went pretty back to W. Houston area not out yet

I don't bad mouth models, I like to speak in data verification terms. Has the NAM ever held any high level of accuracy in its lifetime as a model?

No not go good lol it’s like cmc but I guess any data is good who knows lol

[Portastorm]

NAM went pretty back to W. Houston area not out yet

I don't bad mouth models, I like to speak in data verification terms. Has the NAM ever held any high level of accuracy in its lifetime as a model?

Depends on the geographic location and synoptic pattern. For some things it does quite well ... for others, not so much. That is the case for all models.

[tolakram]

NAM went pretty back to W. Houston area not out yet

I don't bad mouth models, I like to speak in data verification terms. Has the NAM ever held any high level of accuracy in its lifetime as a model?

For what it's used for, yes. There's a verification page, google should find it, I don't have the link handy. It's not a tropical model, but it's pretty good at upper air conditions IIRC.

[snoop9928]

not really any change all day from NHC

[jconsor]

Insights into why the operational 12z ECMWF and UKMET show tracks further to the NE of majority of EPS members, and why they are likely not representing the strength of ridge to the N-NW of Laura properly.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1297996270221524999




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1297998709943402501

[cheezyWXguy]

Not that it needs to be mentioned, but for entertainment purposes, the NAM 3k brings Laura down to 885mb in the gulf. Please do not take this seriously.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON subtle shift west:

[jasons2k]

 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1297998032072572928

[catskillfire51]

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1297998032072572928

That really puts it into perspective!

[Stormcenter]

I expect models to west and then back east and then
back west until Laura is completely in Gulf.