ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[catskillfire51]

Whens the next recon to fly into Laura?

[eastcoastFL]

I'm not a meteorologist, but I would say New Orleans is in the clear for landfall, but could still get some impact. I think the most likely landfall, looking at the current models (ensembles), is in between Beaumont and Intercoastal City.

I wouldn’t be so focused on landfall the impacts will be far and wide from wherever it makes landfall.

I'm sorry if I was downplaying the impacts of the system away from the center. I totally agree that this has the potential of having dramatic impact far away from where this makes landfall. But that is why I said it the way I did for New Orleans. I still believe New Orleans will get some impact from Laura, no matter where she makes landfall.

You’re good, I was just reiterating for those that may not know

[N2FSU]

Moisture fetch down to the Pacific is 1300nm+


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[Kingarabian]

Aite, now will the NHC finally bump this to major hurricane strength in the next hour or will they first see how it fairs with the NW tip of Cuba?

[HurryKane]

Guess Laura will do the same, as she's broad where a broad should be broad broad broad.

A hundred and one mph of fun!

I’ve chewed off all my nails in anticipation of Laura...while my area is east of the cone you just never know.

[NevadaFan18]

Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?

Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.

I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.

[aspen]

Aite, now will the NHC finally bump this to major hurricane strength in the next hour or will they first see how it fairs with the NW tip of Cuba?

I’m thinking they’ll go with a peak of 95 kt for this advisory, and then bump it to a MH peak once it finally clears Cuba.

[Rail Dawg]

Have 14 hurricane chases under the belt now lol. Laura is going to come to my backyard so I guess that makes it easier.

As an old-school forecaster my take is that there is almost too much information piled into the forecasts. Sometimes it is better to just look at the steering charts and the energy in the water. These hurricanes always do what they want to do.

Michael was a Cat 2 when I went nappy-time at 11pm in Panama City, FL. Woke up 6 hours later to a Cat 3 that eventually reached Cat 5. You all get my drift... sometimes even now we really don't know.

Good luck out there fellow professional/amateur weather people! We're all on here because we love studying one of the most powerful forces in nature!

Chuck

[supercane4867]

Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?

Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.

I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.

Mostly based on current organization trend and the fact that it has successfully avoided more landmass than expected. I won't be surprised to see the next recon finds an intensifying 55-60kt tropical storm or greater.

[HoustonFrog]

Seems like today the overall sentiment here has been rather bearish on how high Laura's ceiling is. That kinda confuses me, given that Laura has dodged more land interaction than we previously thought, and it currently looks quite healthy on IR/visible imagery. Anyone care to tell me why the mood towards Laura went from "definitely a MH, there's perfect conditions in the GoM' to "Likely 2 or 3 at landfall, favoring the east, weaker solutions"?

Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.

I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.

So if y'all are thinking stronger storm, are you thinking further west ultimately?

[MBryant]

I made a precautionary reservation for tomorrow to Friday about 200 miles north, just in case. I like options.

Port Arthur Evacuation is now being reported on Radio. 6AM tomorrow.

[supercane4867]

Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.

I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.

So if y'all are thinking stronger storm, are you thinking further west ultimately?

It seems that way at least according to euro ensembles.

[nutkin517]

Orange County judge issues mandatory evacuation for nursing homes and voluntary evacuation for everyone else in OC.

https://www.facebook.com/KFDMNews/posts ... 8358228756

[NevadaFan18]

[tweet] https://twitter.com/mikemostwill/status ... 60769?s=21[/tweet]

Quite the lightning burst in the last couple frames there...

[Blinhart]

Have 14 hurricane chases under the belt now lol. Laura is going to come to my backyard so I guess that makes it easier.

As an old-school forecaster my take is that there is almost too much information piled into the forecasts. Sometimes it is better to just look at the steering charts and the energy in the water. These hurricanes always do what they want to do.

Michael was a Cat 2 when I went nappy-time at 11pm in Panama City, FL. Woke up 6 hours later to a Cat 3 that eventually reached Cat 5. You all get my drift... sometimes even now we really don't know.

Good luck out there fellow professional/amateur weather people! We're all on here because we love studying one of the most powerful forces in nature!

Chuck

So where are you planning on going to as of right now? I'm sure you can find hotels here in Crowley or in Jennings, which would give you a chance of going down to Hwy 14, I wouldn't suggest going any further south than that because of the potential Storm Surge.

[Blinhart]

I made a precautionary reservation for tomorrow to Friday about 200 miles north, just in case. I like options.

Port Arthur Evacuation is now being reported on Radio. 6AM tomorrow.

Cameron Parish is under a Mandatory Evacuation.

[Blow_Hard]

Have 14 hurricane chases under the belt now lol. Laura is going to come to my backyard so I guess that makes it easier.

As an old-school forecaster my take is that there is almost too much information piled into the forecasts. Sometimes it is better to just look at the steering charts and the energy in the water. These hurricanes always do what they want to do.

Michael was a Cat 2 when I went nappy-time at 11pm in Panama City, FL. Woke up 6 hours later to a Cat 3 that eventually reached Cat 5. You all get my drift... sometimes even now we really don't know.

Good luck out there fellow professional/amateur weather people! We're all on here because we love studying one of the most powerful forces in nature!

Chuck

Hey Dawg...

I remember your from Michael...I live in PC and I remember your posts about staging in a Parking Garage if I remember correctly.
Just curious, have you been back to PC since Michael? That storm changed everything around here and most of it not good.

Stay safe my friend and I look forward to your posts and obs in the coming days.

Stay safe!

[ConvergenceZone]

Laura has come a LONG way since this morning. I expect 65mph to 70mph on the next advisory.

I don’t even look at the model thread for strength, since most models perform lousy in that area this year. I think it will hit major status though

[galvestontx]

Sentiments are overly model-driven. Personally I'm more bullish on Laura than ever.

I currently am too. Is there any changes that led to your increased bullishness? Personally, this storm is giving me a bad feeling, and the trends on satellite are supporting it.

So if y'all are thinking stronger storm, are you thinking further west ultimately?

Right because the knowledgeable guys keep saying stronger storms go west of the course And weaker don’t.

[NDG]

Based on radar & radar loop I place the LLC near 22.1N & 82.1W, it took a big jog to the NW the last few hours but it appears to have gotten back on a WNW heading.