
ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.


Last edited by NDG on Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Extrapolated pressure currently down to 995/996 mbar.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Question for the mets, are those SFMR readings legit?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Extrapolated pressure currently down to 995/996 mbar.
Not sure those are legit. NOAA planes tending to read too low. AF will be there in an hour.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.
https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png
look at the last frame on this radar loop, could this be the center?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.
https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png
Not really since it's a broad LLC
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I can't say we are looking forward to this one. The GFS and most models have been lined up on us for a while. The worst thing about hurricanes is losing electricity. After Rita we were out for about a week. This path and ultimately I think intensity remind me of rita. Its ashamed what Rita did to holly beach, sabine refuge, and sulphur. Sabine used to be mainly 130k acres of freshwater marsh. Now its mostly salt. It might literally be beachfront after this freight train. We'll batten down the hatches, pray and be ready for whatever. Catastrophes build character and help prioritize things, which isn't half bad
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Based on past experience, Western Cuba's impact on developing tropical systems is slim to nonexistent.
Hurricane Lili was a CAT2 while crossing Cuba and it immediately started to rapidly intensify thereafter.

However, it can cause permeant structure damage to mature storms(Gustav 08) but that obviously doesn't apply to Laura.
Hurricane Lili was a CAT2 while crossing Cuba and it immediately started to rapidly intensify thereafter.

However, it can cause permeant structure damage to mature storms(Gustav 08) but that obviously doesn't apply to Laura.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Noaa plane missed the center to the east. it is nearly onshore. hopefully the AF place gets there for a pass before landfall ( again) .


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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Frank P wrote:NDG wrote:I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.
https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png
look at the last frame on this radar loop, could this be the center?
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes
Yes, that's exactly it, but watch the NHC call it another mesovorticity like it was calling the CoC that came ashore last near right over Gitmo but were still calling the main CoC further south, Eric Blake spanked by butt last night on Twitter about it

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
to me it looks like it's right over the Isle of Youth?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
998mb near the center


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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Central pressure has likely fallen to 995mb or below.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cfisher wrote:NDG wrote:I knew it, the LLC is further north and west than what the NHC estimated.
https://i.imgur.com/PXotOxW.png
Not really since it's a broad LLC

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tolakram wrote:aspen wrote:Extrapolated pressure currently down to 995/996 mbar.
Not sure those are legit. NOAA planes tending to read too low. AF will be there in an hour.
The NOAA plane recorded a minimum extrapolated pressure of 994 mbar, so it’ll probably actually be around 999-997 mbar.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That feature is just a meso spinning within a broader low. It's not necessarily where the core will tighten up given where convection is
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Red eye wrote:I can't say we are looking forward to this one. The GFS and most models have been lined up on us for a while. The worst thing about hurricanes is losing electricity. After Rita we were out for about a week. This path and ultimately I think intensity remind me of rita. Its ashamed what Rita did to holly beach, sabine refuge, and sulphur. Sabine used to be mainly 130k acres of freshwater marsh. Now its mostly salt. It might literally be beachfront after this freight train. We'll batten down the hatches, pray and be ready for whatever. Catastrophes build character and help prioritize things, which isn't half bad
Well Red eye, I live close to Capitol Manufacturing and Cleco's Sub-station, so I wasn't out of electricity for more than 4 days if I remember correctly. Don't know which part of Crowley you live at, but if you live South of the tracks, I think you would might be put in the Mandatory Evacuation area. Stay safe, I am nervous about this system.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:Central pressure has likely fallen to 995mb or below.
I agree, when recon's extrap pressure recorded 995 mb SFMR was showing 35 knot winds and flight level winds over 30 knots as well.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:Based on past experience, Western Cuba's impact on developing tropical systems is slim to nonexistent.
Hurricane Lili was a CAT2 while crossing Cuba and it immediately started to rapidly intensify thereafter.
https://i.imgur.com/mHpK5sO.gif
However, it can cause permeant structure damage to mature storms(Gustav 08) but that obviously doesn't apply to Laura.
Coincidentally, Laura replaced Lili after 2002.
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