ATL: LAURA - Models

[Steve]

Yet another 925-930 mbar HWRF run into the TX/LA border region. This run gives Laura just a little more than 48 hours over open water before landfall.

1am Thursday morning. So 2 days to for people to get their **** together.

[eastcoastFL]

Yet another 925-930 mbar HWRF run into the TX/LA border region. This run gives Laura just a little more than 48 hours over open water before landfall.

1am Thursday morning. So 2 days to for people to get their **** together.

Looks like euro is headed for similar intensity

[Kingarabian]

Images?

Don't wanna overdo it with weathermodels.com terms of service. I'll post the final frame.

Down to 945mb Hour 48.

[NevadaFan18]

944 mb at 51 hours on the 18z euro

[catskillfire51]

Images?

Don't wanna overdo it with weathermodels.com terms of service. I'll post the final frame.

Down to 945mb Hour 48.

Thanks that one post was my limit

[Kingarabian]

The 18z Euro might end up west of the TX/LA border.

[Blinhart]

Yet another 925-930 mbar HWRF run into the TX/LA border region. This run gives Laura just a little more than 48 hours over open water before landfall.

1am Thursday morning. So 2 days to for people to get their **** together.

Are you starting to get as nervous as I am, this is starting to look like a historical event.

[NevadaFan18]

Holy crap, 18z euro w/ 938 mb. Gotta be the lowest pressure I’ve seen for a Euro run

[catskillfire51]

Looks like it will still hook to the boarder again.

[SoupBone]

The 18z Euro might end up west of the TX/LA border.

Unreal. Basically we hit the reset button. Though what are the data differences in these 18Z models? for Euro? I seem to remember that they are different than the other runs.

[Kingarabian]

Images?

Don't wanna overdo it with weathermodels.com terms of service. I'll post the final frame.

Down to 945mb Hour 48.

Thanks that one post was my limit

Yeah I'll post this and the landfall point. 939mb Might be Houston/Galveston.

[aspen]

Holy crap, 18z euro w/ 938 mb. Gotta be the lowest pressure I’ve seen for a Euro run

That’s exceptionally deep for the Euro. The deepest I remember was around 900 mbar for Hagibis and Kammuri (although the latter was a bust).

[NevadaFan18]

Holy crap, 18z euro w/ 938 mb. Gotta be the lowest pressure I’ve seen for a Euro run

That’s exceptionally deep for the Euro. The deepest I remember was around 900 mbar for Hagibis and Kammuri (also the latter was a bust).

Lowest pressure for an Atlantic system

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it will still hook to the boarder again.

Nvm you're right. Looks like it's hooking.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it will still hook to the boarder again.

Nvm you're right. Looks like it's hooking.

Looks like it's closer to the UKMET than the HWRF/GFS. Landfall is west of the border:

[tolakram]

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1298049398933520384

[dantonlsu]

Looks like it will still hook to the boarder again.

Nvm you're right. Looks like it's hooking.

Looks like it's closer to the UKMET than the HWRF/GFS. Landfall is west of the border:
https://i.imgur.com/ZLpkH0h.png

Too close to comfort for Houston.

What did the 18z Ukmet do?

[Kingarabian]

The 18z Euro might end up west of the TX/LA border.

Unreal. Basically we hit the reset button. Though what are the data differences in these 18Z models? for Euro? I seem to remember that they are different than the other runs.

There's no differences that I can see. It's not a massive shift in track, it's inline with the other models. In terms of intensity, well we all knew that Laura has massive potential as soon as it enters the GOM. Not a surprising by the Euro considering what the HWRF has been showing. The models are adjusting to the extreme scenario that unfortunately has always been on the table.

[Steve]

Yet another 925-930 mbar HWRF run into the TX/LA border region. This run gives Laura just a little more than 48 hours over open water before landfall.

1am Thursday morning. So 2 days to for people to get their **** together.

Are you starting to get as nervous as I am, this is starting to look like a historical event.

Not so much here. I mean, I'm nervous for you guys and everyone who lives in SW LA and SE TX. New Orleans should be fine. We lucked out without any issues from Marco, and it appears we'll be okay with Laura. But the way the models are looking, thousands of people will have damaged, flooded or destroyed homes. And everyone knows down in that corridor, there are many, many people who live in RV's and mobile homes. I hope everyone protects what matters to them.

I know it's the models thread, but I'll yell this because I watched our family's history drip from celluloid to rot at my dad's. Protect your photos and videos. Anything you don't have stored on the web can be lost for good with water damage. Negatives as well. Put them all in ziplock bags or water-proof bins. Trust me.