ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET:

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 83.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2020 0 22.6N 83.2W 999 45
1200UTC 25.08.2020 12 23.5N 86.2W 994 47
0000UTC 26.08.2020 24 24.7N 89.1W 988 52
1200UTC 26.08.2020 36 26.2N 91.7W 977 64
0000UTC 27.08.2020 48 28.3N 93.5W 956 76
1200UTC 27.08.2020 60 31.2N 93.8W 962 44
0000UTC 28.08.2020 72 34.4N 92.8W 978 39
1200UTC 28.08.2020 84 36.9N 90.9W 981 45
0000UTC 29.08.2020 96 38.3N 86.9W 977 39
1200UTC 29.08.2020 108 39.0N 80.1W 983 28
0000UTC 30.08.2020 120 40.8N 71.9W 977 47
1200UTC 30.08.2020 132 44.9N 64.5W 969 52
0000UTC 31.08.2020 144 48.6N 56.7W 975 50

Just west of the TX/LA border area.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747664676946706452/gfs_ir_seus_8.png

TBH if this the IR for real. 954MB is to weak

Why does this look like its going more east? Is there a more eastward trend occuring?

The opposite.

[Highteeld]

Hour 48 on the UKmet

[SoupBone]

UKMET at 48 Hours

[Kingarabian]

Hour 48 on the UKmet

https://i.imgur.com/Tp3WLKY.png

Houston could still get the western eyewall if Laura becomes as large as advertised. Not counting the wobbles that can occur that models can't foresee.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC initialization + trend.

[St0rmTh0r]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747664676946706452/gfs_ir_seus_8.png

TBH if this the IR for real. 954MB is to weak

That would be an epic storm surge at that size and strength!

[SoupBone]

00z CMC initialization + trend.
https://i.imgur.com/c5hkAUq.gif

That is going to translate into more west. Book it.

[catskillfire51]

00z CMC initialization + trend.
https://i.imgur.com/c5hkAUq.gif

Keep it going please because I can't load any of the CMC models on any site.

[cheezyWXguy]

CMC through hour 12 is pretty significantly south of the 18z, but will likely still end up on the east side of guidance.

[cheezyWXguy]

Major shift southwest with the CMC through hour 36. Looks like it may target the TX/LA border as well.

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC hour 36 + trend:

[SoupBone]

Major shift southwest with the CMC through hour 36. Looks like it may target the TX/LA border as well.

I guess you could argue that it's just coming into line with the others, but isn't it usually an eastern outlier?

[cheezyWXguy]

Woah, did not expect that. Hour 48 just off of Galveston and strengthening.

[storm4u]

Cmc looks to be a Texas landfall

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC hours 36-48:

[Highteeld]

Houston is under the gun

[tolakram]

[superfly]

Looks like all the models are coming in line for a TX/LA border hit. They're usually pretty accurate within ~48 hours.

[FixySLN]

To be fair, almost all the models have shift West to East over a 12 hour a window for the last 3 days. Typically the morning models start to show that eastern trend, where the evening models have moved west.

The time is literally just coincidental, but that's how it's lined up thus far.