ATL: LAURA - Models

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3541 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:01 pm

00z UKMET:
TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 83.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2020 0 22.6N 83.2W 999 45
1200UTC 25.08.2020 12 23.5N 86.2W 994 47
0000UTC 26.08.2020 24 24.7N 89.1W 988 52
1200UTC 26.08.2020 36 26.2N 91.7W 977 64
0000UTC 27.08.2020 48 28.3N 93.5W 956 76
1200UTC 27.08.2020 60 31.2N 93.8W 962 44
0000UTC 28.08.2020 72 34.4N 92.8W 978 39
1200UTC 28.08.2020 84 36.9N 90.9W 981 45
0000UTC 29.08.2020 96 38.3N 86.9W 977 39
1200UTC 29.08.2020 108 39.0N 80.1W 983 28
0000UTC 30.08.2020 120 40.8N 71.9W 977 47
1200UTC 30.08.2020 132 44.9N 64.5W 969 52
0000UTC 31.08.2020 144 48.6N 56.7W 975 50


Just west of the TX/LA border area.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3542 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:01 pm

Socalhurcnegirl227 wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747664676946706452/gfs_ir_seus_8.png

TBH if this the IR for real. 954MB is to weak

Why does this look like its going more east? Is there a more eastward trend occuring?

The opposite.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3543 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:03 pm

Hour 48 on the UKmet

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3544 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:04 pm

UKMET at 48 Hours

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3545 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:05 pm

Highteeld wrote:Hour 48 on the UKmet

https://i.imgur.com/Tp3WLKY.png

Houston could still get the western eyewall if Laura becomes as large as advertised. Not counting the wobbles that can occur that models can't foresee.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3546 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:10 pm

00z CMC initialization + trend.
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3547 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:11 pm

Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/747664676946706452/gfs_ir_seus_8.png

TBH if this the IR for real. 954MB is to weak

That would be an epic storm surge at that size and strength!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3548 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:12 pm

Kingarabian wrote:00z CMC initialization + trend.
https://i.imgur.com/c5hkAUq.gif


That is going to translate into more west. Book it.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3549 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:00z CMC initialization + trend.
https://i.imgur.com/c5hkAUq.gif


Keep it going please because I can't load any of the CMC models on any site.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3550 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:15 pm

CMC through hour 12 is pretty significantly south of the 18z, but will likely still end up on the east side of guidance.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3551 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:19 pm

Major shift southwest with the CMC through hour 36. Looks like it may target the TX/LA border as well.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3552 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:20 pm

00z CMC hour 36 + trend:
Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3553 Postby SoupBone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:22 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Major shift southwest with the CMC through hour 36. Looks like it may target the TX/LA border as well.


I guess you could argue that it's just coming into line with the others, but isn't it usually an eastern outlier?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3554 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:23 pm

Woah, did not expect that. Hour 48 just off of Galveston and strengthening.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3555 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:24 pm

Cmc looks to be a Texas landfall
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3556 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:24 pm

00z CMC hours 36-48:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3557 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:24 pm

Houston is under the gun
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3558 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:24 pm

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3559 Postby superfly » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:24 pm

Looks like all the models are coming in line for a TX/LA border hit. They're usually pretty accurate within ~48 hours.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3560 Postby FixySLN » Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:24 pm

To be fair, almost all the models have shift West to East over a 12 hour a window for the last 3 days. Typically the morning models start to show that eastern trend, where the evening models have moved west.

The time is literally just coincidental, but that's how it's lined up thus far.
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