ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

1:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 25
Location: 24.3°N 87.6°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[1900hurricane]

North side is considerably beefier than it was six hours ago.

[EquusStorm]

[sponger]

Time for model runs! I would give a fiver to take a peak at this afternoon's FSU ensemble! This is the time where the track really firms up and this 5pm update is the most critical since Michael and Dorian.

we know where its going...less than 75 miles either side of the NHC line...getting in the time frame where NHC is superior to the models, they can fine tune far better than nay model at this range

Irma says different. In the cone sure, but the Euro began an eastward migration the NHC never bit on.

[eastcoastFL]

North side is considerably beefier than it was six hours ago.

Do you think we’ll see an eye soon?

[jlauderdal]

Time for model runs! I would give a fiver to take a peak at this afternoon's FSU ensemble! This is the time where the track really firms up and this 5pm update is the most critical since Michael and Dorian.

we know where its going...less than 75 miles either side of the NHC line...getting in the time frame where NHC is superior to the models, they can fine tune far better than nay model at this range

Irma says different. In the cone sure, but the Euro began an eastward migration the NHC never bit on.

Which makes it less likely than ever they make that mistake again....they are the masters at learning from the past.

[Stormcenter]

It sure doesn’t look to be moving WNW. IMO

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it will be up to 90 mph by sometime tomorrow morning, and then steady strengthening throughout the day tomorrow

[supercane4867]

It's looking better on visible satellite by the minute.

[FixySLN]

It sure doesn’t look to be moving WNW. IMO

NNW maybe. Trying to find an escape route to warmer water? Ridge slowed the push because intensification stalled temporarily?

[EquusStorm]

Still definitely gotta work on getting some towers going on the west side of the CoC, but it doesn't look like that's too far off now

[Blow_Hard]

It sure doesn’t look to be moving WNW. IMO

Agree, looks more NW but it's going to stair step it's way to the coast...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Microwave data says this is still strengthening and forming the eyewall. Note the southward "tilt" which I would expect to stack up as the influence of the southerly mid level flow abates.



https://tinyurl.com/y3dbwtae

[eastcoastFL]

North side is considerably beefier than it was six hours ago.

Do you think we’ll see an eye soon?

[supercane4867]

Microwave data says this is still strengthening and forming the eyewall. Note the southward "tilt" which I would expect to stack up as the influence of the southerly mid level flow abates.



https://tinyurl.com/y3dbwtae

This pass is very old. We should get a new pass by evening.

[SconnieCane]

Time for model runs! I would give a fiver to take a peak at this afternoon's FSU ensemble! This is the time where the track really firms up and this 5pm update is the most critical since Michael and Dorian.

we know where its going...less than 75 miles either side of the NHC line...getting in the time frame where NHC is superior to the models, they can fine tune far better than nay model at this range

Ah but the problem is that 75 miles makes an enormous difference in the size of the population potentially impacted, and the logistics of evacuations that goes along with that.

[1900hurricane]

North side is considerably beefier than it was six hours ago.

Do you think we’ll see an eye soon?

Don't think we'll get anything other than a nascent/weak banding eye in the short term, but the structure is clearly setting up.

[KWT]

A more northerly motion is possibly an optical illusion caused by a decrease in shear from the north which is allowing it to pull convection northwards and westwards where it had been previously weak. Also this is backed by better outflow being evident now on the northern side.

Would be good to see what the inner core is doing.

[BensonTCwatcher]

And also on the MIMIC the classic "fist" formed and will wrap and as it has it can picked up moisture feeding from Epac and Marco remnants also the frontal boundary. As the outflow is also improving, we will likely see an full grown hurricane on the way to major by late tonight. Gosh I hope from Galveston to LA you all are ready.

https://tinyurl.com/y2sffhy2

[crm6360]

The areas near the cold pool are still >= 79 C.

Maybe this is why the HWRF keeps overestimating intensity? It's using Celsius instead of Fahrenheit.