ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cunxi Huang]

Is Laura currently tracking on the NHC forecast now?

Hmmm.

[catskillfire51]

Wasn’t recon supposed to head out an hour ago? Or was it 3:30 EST instead of CDT?

I believe 330pm central standard time, it's 2:43 so a little bit longer

[aspen]

Wasn’t recon supposed to head out an hour ago? Or was it 3:30 EST instead of CDT?

I believe 330pm central standard time, it's 2:43 so a little bit longer

Okay, so I had my conversion between CDT and EST backwards.

[FixySLN]

Is Laura currently tracking on the NHC forecast now?

Hmmm.

https://i.imgur.com/xplyv0u.png

If that's the center, and one degree is 69 miles, what is she...35-40 miles of course? Am I off my rocker here? Feel free to correct me if I'm off-base.

[GCANE]

Large jumps in CAPE and Theta-E just north of the Yucatan and feeding into the core.
Obviously whats feeding the huge rotating hot tower.

[Buck]

The speed at which these towers are firing makes me think we might be getting ready to kick off some RI... those keep up and pressure is going to start to drop fast and winds to follow. I'm somewhat exepecting a Cat 2 by end of the night.

[Highteeld]

Is Laura currently tracking on the NHC forecast now?

Hmmm.

https://i.imgur.com/xplyv0u.png

https://imgur.com/a/tNhV4Pw

If that's the center, and one degree is 69 miles, what is she...35-40 miles of course? Am I off my rocker here? Feel free to correct me if I'm off-base.

Careful. There is parallax error to consider, and the more north Laura gets, the larger the error is

[FixySLN]

Hmmm.

https://i.imgur.com/xplyv0u.png

https://imgur.com/a/tNhV4Pw

If that's the center, and one degree is 69 miles, what is she...35-40 miles of course? Am I off my rocker here? Feel free to correct me if I'm off-base.

Careful. There is parallax error to consider, and the more north Laura gets, the larger the error is

Hadn't even considered that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmmm.

https://i.imgur.com/xplyv0u.png

https://imgur.com/a/tNhV4Pw

If that's the center, and one degree is 69 miles, what is she...35-40 miles of course? Am I off my rocker here? Feel free to correct me if I'm off-base.

Careful. There is parallax error to consider, and the more north Laura gets, the larger the error is

It's also important to note that the center is likely not in the middle of the eye. Right now we have a large loose eye, but I don't expect it to stay that way for long. This convective burst on the south side will probably contract the eye as it comes up, and it could induce a little bit more of a westward motion in the short term.

[Kingarabian]

Impressive large eye trying to clear out on visible. Clearly see Laura is moving right or ahead of schedule.

[KWT]

https://imgur.com/a/tNhV4Pw

If that's the center, and one degree is 69 miles, what is she...35-40 miles of course? Am I off my rocker here? Feel free to correct me if I'm off-base.

Careful. There is parallax error to consider, and the more north Laura gets, the larger the error is

It's also important to note that the center is likely not in the middle of the eye. Right now we have a large loose eye, but I don't expect it to stay that way for long. This convective burst on the south side will probably contract the eye as it comes up, and it could induce a little bit more of a westward motion in the short term.

Indeed a close look at the eye suggests the lowest center is somewhere in that southern half of that eye. It is however a touch north of forecast at the moment and we are getting closer to the time where such motion difference may make a difference to exact landfall.

[Kazmit]

That massive tower is now obscuring the eye.

[EquusStorm]

Can get a nice sense of the volume of those towers from the edge of GOES-West

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can get a nice sense of the volume of those towers from the edge of GOES-West

https://horsesnhurricanes.files.wordpress.com/2020/08/goes19402020238xf1adc.jpg

clearly on its way to becoming a major. compare this to just 12 hours ago.

[TallahasseeMan]

Probably for the best Recon is taking its time, will most likely be more impressive by the time it gets there.


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[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/SylvesterTurner/status/1298318546976595972

[galvestontx]

eye is it 23.87n, 87.60w

So yes south of where you actually think the eye is.

[SconnieCane]

Now it's starting to look like a hurricane.

[Steve]

The speed at which these towers are firing makes me think we might be getting ready to kick off some RI... those keep up and pressure is going to start to drop fast and winds to follow. I'm somewhat exepecting a Cat 2 by end of the night.

A couple of the 00z models last night showed us getting into that territory this evening. We'll see. Also good to see you as always.

[Blinhart]

eye is it 23.87n, 87.60w

So yes south of where you actually think the eye is.

Where and when was that center location reported???