ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

Looks like some dry air got sucked in from the south. Probably a minor dent in an otherwise insane core blowup

I am not seeing that. I do see a storm on the verge of RI though, sadly.

It's not much, but there's a stream of warmer cloud tops east of the center

[Rail Dawg]

I am a broken record but we watched Michael go from a forecast Cat 2 at landfall to a Cat 5 at landfall.

My plan is for a high Cat 4 and will be glad if wrong.

Chuck

[Highteeld]

If we get 85 knots surface winds within the next 6 hours, RI will have officially occurred. ERI is 55 knots in 24 hours, which would require the eye to shrink in diameter by a good 15-20 miles. Not impossible, not not very likely.

[otowntiger]

Still not sure why this isn’t popping out a visible Eye yet

it’s not quite going thru RI, as many are expecting, yet. It is also possible that it never quite rapidly intensifies per the technical definition. It could just strengthen normally and/or level off. I’ve seen that happen quite a bit in storms past in where despite it looking like all systems go they just level off. [b]I’m not saying it won’t commence RI[/b]. -Just saying it’s not a given.

You are about one of the few people that doesn't think it won't happen. Some of us even expect SEVERE RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

. Did you not see the part I just put in bold?

[hurricaneCW]

Holy crap this thing is going nuts right now.

Expect a major in 12hrs

[supercane4867]

Starting to see some LG dent on the edge of eyewall. Could be early signs of the eye trying to clear out.

[cfisher]

Looks like some dry air got sucked in from the south. Probably a minor dent in an otherwise insane core blowup

I am not seeing that. I do see a storm on the verge of RI though, sadly.

It's not much, but there's a stream of warmer cloud tops east of the center

Ah, so people are saying it's just subsidence from the intense convection.

[toad strangler]

My take, looking at Harvey and even an old Katrina loop, is that rapidly strengthening storms in the Gulf usually don't have a very clear eye until intensification starts to level off.

Interesting .... Charley didn't have the greatest "eye candy" eye either and he was RI'ing well into Cat 4 land.

[cfisher]

Laura's probably on track for Cat 5 landfall at this point. Intensification will only get quicker once a closed-off eye is formed

[psyclone]

Laura has spent the day constructing a foundation upon which rapid strengthening can be built. Some things just take time. I expect the pressure to tank and winds to increase dramatically...Laura should be our first major cane. Right on schedule. I was out at our beaches today catching a beautiful, clean and rapidly increasing ground swell. Lots of dusty surf boards on the west coast got extra salted after today. the sets weren't big yet...but they were relentlessly increasing over time...kinda like Laura.

[FLpanhandle91]

Should probably say this now, but throughout this potentially rapid intensification, there will be many posters who enjoy watching this explode and it might seem like there is ill intent in their comments as excitement boils over. I'm sure I speak for all of us here when I say that no one here wishes what is undoubtedly going to be a terrible situation for people along the Texas and Louisiana coast, but a rapidly intensifying hurricane is the PEAK of mine and so many others' meteorological interests. Let's make sure we know how to differentiate passion for weather versus wishing danger on people who are in this storm's path.

[cheezyWXguy]

If we get 85 knots surface winds within the next 6 hours, RI will have officially occurred. ERI is 55 knots in 24 hours, which would require the eye to shrink in diameter by a good 15-20 miles. Not impossible, not not very likely.

Laura has probably halved her eye diameter since this morning, going by satellite. I doubt the eye will be anymore than 15 to maybe 20 miles wide.

[KWT]

I am not seeing that. I do see a storm on the verge of RI though, sadly.

It's not much, but there's a stream of warmer cloud tops east of the center

Ah, so people are saying it's just subsidence from the intense convection.

Yes definitely this, you could see it forming when the big blow up over the western eyewall.

As others have said 85kts by 06z is RI already, and my guess is based on recent trends that is not at all unlikely...even if it misses that I simply can't see this storm not undergoing RI at this point based on the way it looks and the setup around it.

Toad, Michael only really cleared out a solid eye and intense eyewall around 125-130kts as it headed into landfall, before that it constantly had a ragged quadrant in terms of its eyewall.

[NevadaFan18]

Looks like hurricane force flight-lvl winds are wayyy further out in the NE eyewall then the NW

[cfisher]

Yeah the physics here are really interesting. Let's hope it makes landfall in an unpopulated area that can be fully evacuated

[IsabelaWeather]

Laura's probably on track for Cat 5 landfall at this point. Intensification will only get quicker once a closed-off eye is formed

I'm very bullish. But I strongly disagree. It doesn't have enough time, nor the environmental conditions (shear near the coast).

I am also very flabbergasted at all the people commenting about the guy who is excited to watch this. We don't need this bickering, of course it's not fun when your life and property is at stake but you can't deny the awesomeness going on with the storm.

[cfisher]

Recon will likely find a sub 980 core.

[aspen]

Starting to see some LG dent on the edge of eyewall. Could be early signs of the eye trying to clear out.

https://i.imgur.com/IvnxZAs.jpg

Holy hell, those hot towers are insane

[Nimbus]

Looks like a smaller eye forming which is bad because it doesn't have as much of a problem finding enough moist air.
The recon pressure recordings have gone from a shallow V to a much more pronounced central drop so a small eyewall radius is possible. Might mean we get at least one eyewall replacement cycle later and if she is a greedy mean lady with that dry air nearby that might be it.

[BRweather]

The HWRF has been good, but even it is underplaying the organization of Laura valid this time. Not good.