ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

According to the discussion they upped to 80 kt because they’re getting data from an AF flight that for some reason is not transmitting publicly.

Quite odd that the AF plane is not transmitting publicly.

There's about a 5 or so min delay in recon data on TT, and they transmit in ten minute blocks. NHC is more than likely talking to them live--the data for the upgrade came in right before the advisory but was in the block that showed up on TT about ten minutes after.

025700 2503N 08900W 7526 02392 9879 +164 //// 198060 062 077 013 01

About 10:57 EDT.

[Blinhart]

Man! I hope folks have bugged out. The flooding is going to be bad on top of the heavy surge. Laura is set to bring some pain in 24 hours. Can’t forget the damage from Michael, still have pics on my phone. Praying for folks and hoping folks can get out. Hoping for weakening coming ashore vs strengthening. Cameron could see 14 ft. That’s no joke.

I did a little research and sounds like by and large Cameron parish has few permanent structures anymore. the entire county is under a mandatory evacuation...and based on the news report, the few thousand residents in that area were making and orderly exit today, many taking their boats, cattle and campers along with them. I am not sure but this may landfall in the least populated county/parish on the US gulf coast.

EDIT: i thought I was wrong...Kenedy county texas holds the least populated county on the coast trophy. But Cameron Parish is next.

That actually have quite a few permanent structures, all along La Hwy 82, in Cameron, Grand Chenier, and few other areas, there is also 2 very large wildlife reserves. So yeah not many people and they all know what happened with Rita and they know not to stay, luckily FEMA ok'd for evacuees to stay at hotels, since the virus has caused most evacuation centers not to open.

[Blinhart]

Steve are you saying what I think you are saying, East of state line?

I don’t know. The trough was one of the 3 main upper features that were going to matter along with high pressure from the east and the heat high in the plains and west of there. It also turns out that the narrow embedded longwave that’s been across TX at whatever level it is at has been moving very slowly west. So I don’t know that the SW flow along the TX Coast can really go anywhere fast enough to not be a western border. If it pulled back faster, there’s always a good chance that a storm would get pulled toward it. But if it doesn’t, it’s got to turn up.

What’s hard for me to gauge is that I like watching jetstream and high clouds on visible over anything else which you can’t get at night. WV helps me some but it’s harder to see the different cloud layers interact.

To answer your actual question, east of the border maybe 52% to 48%? Maybe right on the border? Hopefully someone will report on the buoys tomorrow. It’s probably going to be our best indication if it’s still unsettled by tomorrow afternoon.

We'll see what the 00z models show but I'm worried that this keeps going more east than forecast and puts Lafayette in play.

Don't say that, they haven't done anything mandatory around there, all voluntary.

[DocB]

Despite the improved outflow to the north today the banding to the south has decreased. Sorta taking on annularish look.

Respectfully disagree. This is what an annular hurricane looks like.


https://kids.kiddle.co/images/thumb/2/2 ... ndfall.gif

Complete symmetry.


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[BensonTCwatcher]

Man! I hope folks have bugged out. The flooding is going to be bad on top of the heavy surge. Laura is set to bring some pain in 24 hours. Can’t forget the damage from Michael, still have pics on my phone. Praying for folks and hoping folks can get out. Hoping for weakening coming ashore vs strengthening. Cameron could see 14 ft. That’s no joke.

I did a little research and sounds like by and large Cameron parish has few permanent structures anymore. the entire county is under a mandatory evacuation...and based on the news report, the few thousand residents in that area were making and orderly exit today, many taking their boats, cattle and campers along with them. I am not sure but this may landfall in the least populated county/parish on the US gulf coast.

EDIT: i thought I was wrong...Kenedy county texas holds the least populated county on the coast trophy. But Cameron Parish is next.

.

Yes that’s a blessing but like Rita the surge east of the eyeball looks to be modeled very high as well into Lake Charles and down hwy 90. We had surprising flooding from Matthew here in rural areas and it took a long time to recover. Vermillion bay is a concern especially if the wind field expands more.

[Blinhart]

Man! I hope folks have bugged out. The flooding is going to be bad on top of the heavy surge. Laura is set to bring some pain in 24 hours. Can’t forget the damage from Michael, still have pics on my phone. Praying for folks and hoping folks can get out. Hoping for weakening coming ashore vs strengthening. Cameron could see 14 ft. That’s no joke.

I did a little research and sounds like by and large Cameron parish has few permanent structures anymore. the entire county is under a mandatory evacuation...and based on the news report, the few thousand residents in that area were making and orderly exit today, many taking their boats, cattle and campers along with them. I am not sure but this may landfall in the least populated county/parish on the US gulf coast.

EDIT: i thought I was wrong...Kenedy county texas holds the least populated county on the coast trophy. But Cameron Parish is next.

.

Yes that’s a blessing but like Rita the surge east of the eyeball looks to be modeled very high as well into Lake Charles and down hwy 90. We had surprising flooding from Matthew here in rural areas and it took a long time to recover. Vermillion bay is a concern especially if the wind field expands more.

Yeah I have to worry about the Mermentau River Plateau, don't want to have to worry about the Vermillion Bay also even though they are already predicted to get 6-10 feet.

[Kingarabian]

Despite the improved outflow to the north today the banding to the south has decreased. Sorta taking on annularish look.

https://i.imgur.com/65Y8PmM.png

Respectfully disagree. This is what an annular hurricane looks like.


https://kids.kiddle.co/images/thumb/2/2 ... ndfall.gif

Complete symmetry.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

While I don't disagree that this isnt annular and could be far from it, I respectfully disagree with your comparison with Haiyan as it is far from an annular hurricane as you can see with its distinctive banding. It is more symmetrical but it should have considerably less banding. Similar to Isabel 2003.

[toad strangler]

I don't think Laura has annular characteristics. An annular storm with look like a perfect round donut with a large eye. Almost no spiral feeder bands ....

[Highteeld]

Anytime somebody makes a comparison to Haiyan, it must be shown why they are likely incorrect... lol. Haiyan was a true rarity

[Keldeo1997]

This is a true annular storm (Isabel)

[BensonTCwatcher]

I did a little research and sounds like by and large Cameron parish has few permanent structures anymore. the entire county is under a mandatory evacuation...and based on the news report, the few thousand residents in that area were making and orderly exit today, many taking their boats, cattle and campers along with them. I am not sure but this may landfall in the least populated county/parish on the US gulf coast.

EDIT: i thought I was wrong...Kenedy county texas holds the least populated county on the coast trophy. But Cameron Parish is next.

.

Yes that’s a blessing but like Rita the surge east of the eyeball looks to be modeled very high as well into Lake Charles and down hwy 90. We had surprising flooding from Matthew here in rural areas and it took a long time to recover. Vermillion bay is a concern especially if the wind field expands more.

Yeah I have to worry about the Mermentau River Plateau, don't want to have to worry about the Vermillion Bay also even though they are already predicted to get 6-10 feet.

You stay safe, I forgot about that. I used to live in Plaquemines Parrish and so much of where I used to hunt and fish is just water now after Katrina. Feel for you guys down there.

[DocB]

Despite the improved outflow to the north today the banding to the south has decreased. Sorta taking on annularish look.

https://i.imgur.com/65Y8PmM.png

Respectfully disagree. This is what an annular hurricane looks like.


https://kids.kiddle.co/images/thumb/2/2 ... ndfall.gif

Complete symmetry.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

While I don't disagree that this isnt annular and could be far from it, I respectfully disagree with your comparison with Haiyan as it is far from an annular hurricane as you can see with its distinctive banding. It is more symmetrical but it should have considerably less banding. Similar to Isabel 2003.

You are correct. Typhoon Haiyan was never truly annular. But did have a very annular appearance other than the convective banding. I guess my point is that Laura is not even close to symmetrical.

Foregoing the impacts to humans and property, I wish she had another 24 hours under these conditions to see what Mother Nature is capable of.

After a couple of EWRCs, I could easily see Laura going annular in the Gulf.


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[Kingarabian]

I don't think Laura has annular characteristics. An annular storm with look like a perfect round donut with a large eye. Almost no spiral feeder bands ....

I shouldve worded my post better and said taking on annular characteristics instead. Just the all around limited banding sticks out

[Highteeld]

Some new hot towers firing off. Deepening will likely recommence shortly.

[Hurrilurker]

I don't think Laura has annular characteristics. An annular storm with look like a perfect round donut with a large eye. Almost no spiral feeder bands ....

I shouldve worded my post better and said taking on annular characteristics instead. Just the all around limited banding sticks out

You did say "ish"

[DestinHurricane]

Respectfully disagree. This is what an annular hurricane looks like.


https://kids.kiddle.co/images/thumb/2/2 ... ndfall.gif

Complete symmetry.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

While I don't disagree that this isnt annular and could be far from it, I respectfully disagree with your comparison with Haiyan as it is far from an annular hurricane as you can see with its distinctive banding. It is more symmetrical but it should have considerably less banding. Similar to Isabel 2003.

You are correct. Typhoon Haitian was never truly annular. But did have a very annular appearance other than the convective banding. I guess my point is that Laura is not even close to symmetrical.

Foregoing the impacts to humans and property, I wish she had another 24 hours under these conditions to see what Mother Nature is capable of.

After a couple of EWRCs, I could easily see Laura going annular in the Gulf.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Laura will in no way have time for multiple EWRCs. And that's not something to wish for if it had another 24 hrs...

[DocB]

While I don't disagree that this isnt annular and could be far from it, I respectfully disagree with your comparison with Haiyan as it is far from an annular hurricane as you can see with its distinctive banding. It is more symmetrical but it should have considerably less banding. Similar to Isabel 2003.

You are correct. Typhoon Haitian was never truly annular. But did have a very annular appearance other than the convective banding. I guess my point is that Laura is not even close to symmetrical.

Foregoing the impacts to humans and property, I wish she had another 24 hours under these conditions to see what Mother Nature is capable of.

After a couple of EWRCs, I could easily see Laura going annular in the Gulf.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Laura will in no way have time for multiple EWRCs. And that's not something to wish for if it had another 24 hrs...

Yes, I know. I don’t think she will undergo any.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Highteeld]

While I don't disagree that this isnt annular and could be far from it, I respectfully disagree with your comparison with Haiyan as it is far from an annular hurricane as you can see with its distinctive banding. It is more symmetrical but it should have considerably less banding. Similar to Isabel 2003.

You are correct. Typhoon Haitian was never truly annular. But did have a very annular appearance other than the convective banding. I guess my point is that Laura is not even close to symmetrical.

Foregoing the impacts to humans and property, I wish she had another 24 hours under these conditions to see what Mother Nature is capable of.

After a couple of EWRCs, I could easily see Laura going annular in the Gulf.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Laura will in no way have time for multiple EWRCs. And that's not something to wish for if it had another 24 hrs...

Florence did 2 at the same time though lol

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1298468953505832960

[cfisher]

I have a feeling pressures will drop like a rock once the eye clears.