ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NotoSans]

Latest VDM reveals central pressure is somehow holding steady but winds have caught up. Once the eye starts to clear out pressure will rapidly fall again.

[cfisher]

Does anyone have an overlay of Laura's position compared to the NHC track?

[Highteeld]

The CDO is getting extremely large now

[Highteeld]

Colossal CDO

[aperson]

Eye is clearing out and warming on IR. We should see a proper eye scene type soon. This looks like a major to me already. I think cat 5 is a real possibility here.

[Highteeld]

Eye is clearing out and warming on IR. We should see a proper eye scene type soon. This looks like a major to me already. I think cat 5 is a real possibility here.

Cat 5 indeed is back on the menu. The eye shrunk quite a bit; 23 nm really isn't that large.

[kevin]

Laura is getting very impressive, almost looks like a major to me too (if it isn't one already). And with the euro now on the verge of a cat 5 at its peak, I'm afraid a cat 5 is indeed back on the table.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Eye is clearing out and warming on IR. We should see a proper eye scene type soon. This looks like a major to me already. I think cat 5 is a real possibility here.

Cat 5 indeed is back on the menu. The eye shrunk quite a bit; 23 nm really isn't that large.

agree with both of you. while i think "only" a cat 4 is likely, the intensification pattern is similar to michael, in which the storm does not take a break from intensifying by continuing to fire consistent intense convection relentlessly.

[Blinhart]

OK went to bed at 11pm for one of many naps that I will be taking until this is all done, wasn't expecting to see 105 mph only 3.5 hours later. I'm really scared of what this can become. Will be interesting to see what the NHC says in their next Disco in a little over an hour, will RECON be in there by then?

[KWT]

Laura is getting very impressive, almost looks like a major to me too (if it isn't one already). And with the euro now on the verge of a cat 5, I'm afraid a cat 5 is indeed back on the table.

Its looking better and better and does indeed have a large CDO now. Compare that to 24hrs ago and you can see just how far it has come.

With that being said category-5 is going to be a challenge, especially as conditions on the continental shelf aren't quite as perfect. A solid 4 looks more likely IMO but a 4/5 is still going to be one o the more powerful hurricanes in recent history hitting land (only Harvey/Michael have hit the US gulf coast as a 4+ in recent times).

[meriland29]

Eye is clearing out and warming on IR. We should see a proper eye scene type soon. This looks like a major to me already. I think cat 5 is a real possibility here.

She's definitely looking more solid the past few hours. Those tops are cooling down pretty fast and her eye is definitely showing up, not sure if recon will pick up major wind changes. Seems lately that a lot of storms winds don't seem to correlate well (pick up) in response to visual upticks, but I have seen it both ways. Will be interesting for sure to see what recon finds.

[Blinhart]

What is the record for most powerful storm (lowest pressure and highest wind) to hit West of the Mississippi?

If I recall I saw somewhere no Cat 5 has mad landfall this far West ever.

[Highteeld]

That's Philippines sea magnitude convection

[Chris90]

I wouldn’t worry too much about the eye clearing/not clearing. Maria kept obscuring her eye with big blowups from hot towers, and I don’t think she really truly cleared her eye until just a few hours before she hit Cat 5 and wiped out Dominica.

The eye is getting tighter, so pressure falls could take bigger jumps now than they have up to this point. Just have to keep watching the recon data to see what’s happening.

Sending all the positive thoughts and energy I can to all of you facing Laura, or who have already faced her in the Caribbean. I hope she doesn’t live up to her full potential, and everyone fares ok.

[Blinhart]

Eye is clearing out and warming on IR. We should see a proper eye scene type soon. This looks like a major to me already. I think cat 5 is a real possibility here.

She's definitely looking more solid the past few hours. Those tops are cooling down pretty fast and her eye is definitely showing up, not sure if recon will pick up major wind changes. Seems lately that a lot of storms winds don't seem to correlate well (pick up) in response to visual upticks, but I have seen it both ways. Will be interesting for sure to see what recon finds.

But evidently Laura catches up quickly, I was expecting her to be this strong at maybe the 4 am advisory not the 1 am advisory.

[Kingarabian]

This is Joaquin 2015 all over again. Consistently obscured eye. Very large and round intense CDO. Reached high end Cat.4 strength.


Almost looks the same too.

[Blinhart]

So her windfield has expanded some Hurricane strength winds are 55 miles out now instead of 40, however TS winds are still only 175 miles out. I just hope the Hurricane strength winds don't expand to 100 miles out and TS out 200. This would be really bad.

[Highteeld]

Large and in charge

[Kingarabian]

If this thing manages to just warm the eye -- not even positive territory, it will be be a solid Cat.4 with these cloud tops.

[cfisher]

I'm not sure why so many on here were bearish on intensity. We saw what Michael did in a short amount of time in an environment less favorable than the one Laura's currently in.