ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Laura's eye now withing radar's long range.

[GCANE]

VIS showing towers obscuring the eye.
A long way to go before she tops out.

[aspen]

How many more hours does she have before landfall?

24.

There better be some shear closer to landfall, because at this rate of deepening (~3.33 mbar/hr), Laura would get below 900 mbar in 24 hours. Thankfully, it doesn’t seem like this portion of the Gulf close to land could support that intensity, but it doesn’t make Laura any less of a threat.

[HurricaneEdouard]

And so we have it, folks: the first major hurricane of 2020.

When this thing was still an INVEST, I forecast it to become Laura and become a major hurricane this week, noting my belief that it would move considerably more westward than the models and the official forecast indicated, into the Caribbean and into the Gulf to threaten the Gulf coast as a major hurricane, and stuck to my guns ever since despite some bearish globals. I'm not glad my forecast panned out - it's horrific to see - but I do expect to see a high-end Category 4 or low-end Category 5 hurricane at this point. A 6mb+ drop in 55 minutes is extremely significant, and it looks like the pressure just dropped 1mb again.

[Shell Mound]

How many more hours does she have before landfall?

24.

There better be some shear closer to landfall, because at this rate of deepening (~3.33 mbar/hr), Laura would get below 900 mbar in 24 hours. Thankfully, it doesn’t seem like this portion of the Gulf close to land could support that intensity...

Camille and Michael would argue otherwise. Both were sub-920-mb landfalls on the northern Gulf Coast. Camille was exactly 900 mb at landfall in MS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This has turned into a classic GOMEX monster.

[eastcoastFL]

[USTropics]

How many more hours does she have before landfall?

18 she’s about 280 miles from land moving 15 mph

The 06z models don't landfall this until 21-25 hours from now.

24 hours is more realistic and what the ECMWF 06z model shows. This will slow down a bit as it edges around the western periphery of the mid-level high that has been steering it.

[NDG]

110 knot flight level winds found by NOAA recon, I'm sure the AF recon will find even higher winds in that same quadrant.

120630 2640N 09113W 7524 02238 9693 +189 +136 134074 077 078 006 00
120700 2641N 09112W 7528 02249 9718 +179 +156 135084 088 091 008 00
120730 2642N 09110W 7518 02284 9754 +162 //// 146096 101 096 015 01
120800 2644N 09108W 7508 02325 9791 +153 //// 145107 110 093 013 01
120830 2645N 09107W 7522 02331 9826 +147 //// 144101 106 084 023 01
120900 2646N 09105W 7527 02348 9849 +147 //// 144100 101 079 020 01
120930 2648N 09104W 7524 02368 9865 +151 //// 144096 097 078 011 01
121000 2649N 09102W 7512 02396 9885 +147 //// 144095 096 074 011 01

[Kazmit]

24 hour loop of Laura from TS to Cat 3.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=48&ts=3&st=0&et=0&speed=110&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=8022&y=5801

[HurricaneEdouard]

110 knot flight level winds found by NOAA recon, I'm sure the AF recon will find even higher winds in that same quadrant.

120630 2640N 09113W 7524 02238 9693 +189 +136 134074 077 078 006 00
120700 2641N 09112W 7528 02249 9718 +179 +156 135084 088 091 008 00
120730 2642N 09110W 7518 02284 9754 +162 //// 146096 101 096 015 01
120800 2644N 09108W 7508 02325 9791 +153 //// 145107 110 093 013 01
120830 2645N 09107W 7522 02331 9826 +147 //// 144101 106 084 023 01
120900 2646N 09105W 7527 02348 9849 +147 //// 144100 101 079 020 01
120930 2648N 09104W 7524 02368 9865 +151 //// 144096 097 078 011 01
121000 2649N 09102W 7512 02396 9885 +147 //// 144095 096 074 011 01

100 knots might be conservative.

[supercane4867]

Current intensity appears to be near 105kt.

[eastcoastFL]

24.

There better be some shear closer to landfall, because at this rate of deepening (~3.33 mbar/hr), Laura would get below 900 mbar in 24 hours. Thankfully, it doesn’t seem like this portion of the Gulf close to land could support that intensity...

Camille and Michael would argue otherwise. Both were sub-920-mb landfalls on the northern Gulf Coast. Camille was exactly 900 mb at landfall in MS.

Here’s the max intensity charts today

[hurricaneCW]

VIS showing towers obscuring the eye.
A long way to go before she tops out.

That's the troubling part. She's still likely 12+ hrs from peaking and it's very possible this occurs just before landfall.

Very different than Rita/Katrina which peaked well over a day before landfall.

[Steve]

I am in absolute shock of what I just woke up to.

20 pages since after 1am.

[Ken711]

This has turned into a classic GOMEX monster.

https://i.imgur.com/cBbTKhT.jpg

The buzz saw look.

[Ryxn]

Laura is showing her vogue eye now. A hurricane with an eye that looks like an actual human eye Take a look at this loop. It looks like Laura is temporarily winking. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Kazmit]

I am in absolute shock of what I just woke up to.

20 pages since after 1am.

I went through all of it, took me half an hour.

[chris_fit]

24 hour loop of Laura from TS to Cat 3.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=48&ts=3&st=0&et=0&speed=110&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=8022&y=5801

Offtopic but anyone know how to SAVE a loop like that to a file?

[supercane4867]

T6.0 from SAB


TXNT23 KNES 261205
TCSNTL

A. 13L (LAURA)

B. 26/1132Z

C. 26.5N

D. 91.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND EMBEDDED IN BLACK YIELDS A
DT OF 6.0 INCLUDING EYE-ADJ OF +0.5. MET IS 5.0. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...JLEVINE