ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CoastalDesign]

I was just looking at a satellite image of the projected landfall area. It is heavily industrialized with refineries, petrochemical plants etc. The biggest concern I see is all of the lagoons of differently colored water. Does anyone know what would be in those? Are they protected from storm surge with berms?

[cheezyWXguy]

I'll be the sacrificial lamb...looks like she's starting her turn.

the image I just posted she seems west of the track which to me would mean she's not turning yet but recon shows it turning

Recon fixes are not necessarily indicative of storm movement, especially in an eye as large as 28mi

[Jr0d]

The NOAA recon is flight at the 750mb instead of 700mb, so the reduction factor is slight more. Still 122kts is brutal.

I will go ahead and guess the strongest winds have not made it to the surface and wind speed is going to play catch up to the ear popping pressure drop.

[ronjon]

What are the chances this effects Houston still? Sitting at work and my nerves are pretty high

Houston is under a tropical storm warning. Current hurricane force winds extend 70 miles outward from center. Track guidance is tightly clustered for landfall near Tx-La border area around 12 to 2 am tomorrow morning. Expect heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds. Losing power seems to be the greatest impact for Houston now. Rainfall totals will be manageable as Houston is on the west side of storm and its moving fairly quickly.

[cfisher]

As surface winds increase, WISHE allows quicker strengthening over the warm SSTs

What is wishe?

Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange, strong winds pull more heat energy off the surface leading to more convection and pressure drops. It's a positive feedback loop.

[catskillfire51]

I'll be the sacrificial lamb...looks like she's starting her turn.

the image I just posted she seems west of the track which to me would mean she's not turning yet but recon shows it turning

Recon fixes are not necessarily indicative of storm movement, especially in an eye as large as 28mi

good point!

[cfisher]

I've never seen a storm bomb out like this, it's so graceful..

[aspen]

At Laura’s rate of intensification, I think she’ll be upgraded to 110 kt/955 mbar for the 11am update. It looks like she’s around around 105 kt/960 mbar.

[shiny-pebble]

I think we'll see the eye clear out soon... Warming quickly

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[Fancy1001]

Is mission 21 going home or going in for one last run.

[HurricaneEdouard]

If Laura continues its current deepening rate (4-6mb per hour) for 4 more hours, it could officially meet the criteria for explosive deepening.

Laura is in a league of her own with this rate of deepening and the size of the eye

You ain’t kidding. The speed at which she’s developed is simply amazing.

Also looks pretty annular. If it was a buzzsaw shape before, there's definitely way more symmetry now.

Not annular. Again, annular is a very unique type of hurricane structure that doesn't occur over the Gulf as the waters are too warm; annular hurricanes require a specific, narrow band of modest (not especially warm) SSTs, have a tire-shaped ring of convection around a large eye, with no banding features, no convection outside of the CDO, and generally fairly warm cloudtops (compared to their intensity) and shallow, uniform convection. Annular, buzzsaw and symmetrical are all different terms.

[ronyan]

We need a rule that the A word is not allowed unless NHC or an official source brings it up.

[KWT]

959 mb, 97 kt SFMR in the southern (!) eyewall

Yeah thats pretty gnarly it has to be said! Probably enough for an upgrade to 105kts if they want to be conservative. Could make an argument for 110kts as well based on that NE quad.

Pressure still dropping away nicely as well!

[HouTXmetro]

Any idea how accurate this is? Surprised by the high maximum wind speeds so far west in Houston

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200826/1b7a684d73406439b7fed75728e74fcd.jpg

That can't be correct.

[KWT]

I've never seen a storm bomb out like this, it's so graceful..

For the old guard this is very similar to what happened to both Katrina and Rita back in 2005, pace of intensification is keeping up with those two as well at the moment, though it won't have quite as much time as those two.

[JayTX]

I was just looking at a satellite image of the projected landfall area. It is heavily industrialized with refineries, petrochemical plants etc. The biggest concern I see is all of the lagoons of differently colored water. Does anyone know what would be in those? Are they protected from storm surge with berms?

In the Beaumont/Port Arthur area the major refineries are all protected by levees systems. Now there are a few small refineries in Beaumont and I'm not sure if they are protected. Also there are some chemical plants in the Orange area I don't know if they have levees or not. Where the worst surge looks to be in La there are many refineries and I have no idea if they have levees around them. The ponds you mentioned may or may not be I would have to know the location. What we call the mid county area Port Arthur, Nederland, Port Neches are protected by levees as well. Bridge City is not and no town north of there is either.

[PavelGaborik10]

I've never seen a storm bomb out like this, it's so graceful..

For the old guard this is very similar to what happened to both Katrina and Rita back in 2005, pace of intensification is keeping up with those two as well at the moment, though it won't have quite as much time as those two.

That isn't a positive unfortunately considering both weakened significantly before landfall.

[cfisher]

I've never seen a storm bomb out like this, it's so graceful..

For the old guard this is very similar to what happened to both Katrina and Rita back in 2005, pace of intensification is keeping up with those two as well at the moment, though it won't have quite as much time as those two.

Yeah Katrina is an interesting analog, I guess I'm just more surprised by the steadiness of convection wrapping without any huge bursts. There's certainly no chance it overheats

[wx98]

I know some people in Jasper, Texas and they said yesterday the 4-lane highway running north from Beaumont was very busy. People appear to be getting away from the Golden Triangle.

[dexterlabio]

Without recon this looks like a solid T6.0 which translates to a 115kt Cat4. Interesting to know what the actual measurement will be. Based on the recent posts about recon 115kts isnt too far off an estimate.