ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Do_For_Love]

He is going to Holly Beach to livestream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1Ee4F7q-o

I think he's adjusting his remote camera system. It'll be recorded but he isn't gonna be there for it, at least thats what he usually does

[supercane4867]

From 11AM discussion

The UKMET and ECMWF models
suggest that there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a
tropical cyclone off the mid-Atlantic coast, but given the
uncertainties at that time range the forecast continues to show it
as a post-tropical cyclone at days 4 and 5.

Ghost of Laura coming soon?

[Shell Mound]

Storm surge level is likely to exceed Rita by a considerable margin.

The very latest visible imagery indicates that a well-defined “stadium” is beginning to form in the eye.

As for the CDO, it continues to expand westward, with dual outflow channels slowly becoming evident.

[USTropics]

He is going to Holly Beach to livestream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1Ee4F7q-o

I think he's adjusting his remote camera system. It'll be recorded but he isn't gonna be there for it, at least thats what he usually does

Correct he's fixing a camera there, heading to Lake Charles to put up some more instruments, and will eventually ride it out in Shreveport, LA.

[wkwally]

When is Laura going to turn more to the TX/LA border? From what I am seeing so far it is heading right to Houston. Making for a very nervous day.

[KWT]

If Laura's pressure continue to drop at a rate ~3 mb/hr, with around 15-16 hrs left before landfall, even if it drops to 1-2 mb/hour, 930sh mb is not out of the of the question at or before landfall.
IMO.

Euro and HWRF were three this morning with 930-ish looks like most models were in the ballpark.

Yes, HWRF was showing this situation quite frequently over the last 72hrs, that model is probably the one that has nailed the intensity even when many other flip flopped. ECM has clocked on well recently, but it wasn't that long ago that it had barely a TS in the gulf at this point...

930s does look likely to be around the peak area, could scrape into the 920s. Eye is clearing out nicely even further at the moment.

[GCANE]

Maybe leveling off.
Helicity has backed down quite a bit.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1298627296660783105

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hwy 98 and Mexico Beach after Michael. Took these few after the storm. The pine trees on hwy 98 were like driving in a hall way before the storm almost 100% blown down and broken off like a lawnmower. Mexico beach had houses on concrete piers, surge got to the base of floors and wind also blew many completely down. I saw many that were just a few concrete pilings left standing. Laura is in this class. The shape of the coast and angle of approach are going to put a lot of water inland in a hurry. Lots of ranches and such down there. It's all wetland up to the creole hwy so not much to stop wind and wave action. Praying for safety for folks down there and that any stubborn folks have decided to get north. 15 ft of surge puts water and waves into the second story. Frame houses cant take that kind of force, and whatever happened in previous storms just does not matter with Laura.

[Stangfriik]

 https://twitter.com/GregNordstrom/status/1298636560070582272

[dukeblue219]

Hi folks, have not been tracking this one closely but I see a lot of comments to the effect of historic storm surge. Laura is a powerful storm, but at first glance doesn't look *historic* in a literal sense, partly due to the active era we've seen recently. Is something specific driving the large storm surge numbers and dire predictions for this one?

Hope this doesn't come off as downplaying anything....

[MGC]

Sections of the Louisiana coast are going to look like the Mississippi coast after Katrina......MGC

[catskillfire51]

Another few more hours and we should see her turn to the north/northwest more

[FLpanhandle91]

Don't let warming CDO fool you as we come out of DMAX. These are, for the most part, cloud tops warming as the sun hits them and not an indication of weakening. The structure and symmetry continues to improve.

[KWT]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1298627296660783105

Really interesting tweet. Wouldn't be at all surprised if its well into the 940s by that point based on recent deepening, and the fact the presentation still looks great as well.

Convective cell that probably contain at least TS gusts are going to be coming onshore in the next few hours and the flooding we are starting to see is really going to start mounting up.

PS - unsurvivable surge, getting reminders of that infamous Katrina message.

[TexasSam]

When is Laura going to turn more to the TX/LA border? From what I am seeing so far it is heading right to Houston. Making for a very nervous day.

Ain't that the truth.

[dantonlsu]

https://i.imgur.com/eukrJ8y.png

Another few more eyes and we should see her turn to the north/northwest more

Where are you getting that?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Portastorm]

Hi folks, have not been tracking this one closely but I see a lot of comments to the effect of historic storm surge. Laura is a powerful storm, but at first glance doesn't look *historic* in a literal sense, partly due to the active era we've seen recently. Is something specific driving the large storm surge numbers and dire predictions for this one?

Hope this doesn't come off as downplaying anything....

With a predicted surge of 20 feet, I would say that is historic in a literal sense for this area. Why? Cat 4 hurricane heading N-NW, at a decent clip, and at high tide ... think of the push of water on the east side of the storm center.

[Rail Dawg]

Heading to Lake Charles, LA from Houston.

This is the 15th hurricane chase and is going to be yet another big one.

You all are outstanding pro/amateur mets. Lots of respect for you.

Chuck