ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

New Video Update on Laura
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5XL2STvZ8g

[Highteeld]

What a difference in the last 20 hours

[supercane4867]

I fear that the next AF mission may find Laura to be nearing CAT5 intensity.

[Extratropical94]

Pressure down to 950 mb. This is hurricane michael all over again

https://i.imgur.com/xHBgAUo.png

That dropsonde shows a sfc pressure of 958. 951 is just the lowest level where wind speeds were reported.
Laura is strengthening, but she has not reached 950 yet.

[Shell Mound]

Latest visible imagery from GOES-16 strongly suggests that Laura is increasingly likely to attain Category-5 status during the next six to twelve hours. Note that outflow is expanding and also migrating northward on the northern side of the system, suggesting that Laura’s strong convection is partly modulating its environs via robust anticyclonic flow. This could also serve to enhance mesoscale ridging and therefore enable Laura, despite its intensity, to make landfall between Holly Beach and Cameron vs. locations farther east, placing Lake Charles in the northeastern quadrant. Additionally, intense eyewall convection is starting to form an incipient “ring” or “doughnut” on radar.

[BobHarlem]

Mark sudduth is near Holly Beach right now, surge is starting to come up already
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1Ee4F ... e=youtu.be

[Highteeld]

Desperate situation in Lake Charles

[CrazyC83]

Unless the shear picks up, I see no reason why this can't keep strengthening.

[Steve]

Rail Dawg,

There are a ton of parking garages, hotels and office buildings in downtown Lake Charles which is kind of on two bodies of water (Lake Charles, Prien Lake). Those connect to the Gulf via rivers (which I think they are but are called Lakes). Downtown is right on the water. There's a big Capital One building there that's like 40 something stories. It's all glass. You won't see Gulf surge there, but the lakes will come up and over their banks. You can find lots of safe harbor in the city whereas you can't in Hackberry or Holly Beach or whatever. Looking forward to some reports later.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

CDO is becoming more symmetric on IR.



Might see a stadium effect soon in the eye.



Textbook western GOMEX storm, much like Harvey, Katrina and Rita before it.

[JSDS]

https://i.imgur.com/xj1QHmw.png

If you want to try and track yourself, go to windy.com and look at the satellite view, mark a waypoint in the middle of the eye and just let it go. This point was put about an hour and 30 min ago. Helps to have a visual to reference.

Nice Website.

How do you mark the waypoint?

[catskillfire51]

https://i.imgur.com/xj1QHmw.png

If you want to try and track yourself, go to windy.com and look at the satellite view, mark a waypoint in the middle of the eye and just let it go. This point was put about an hour and 30 min ago. Helps to have a visual to reference.

Nice Website.

How do you mark the waypoint?

just do one click of the mouse where you want it once it's there you can move it.

[MGC]

Looking at the long range radar loop out of Lake Charles, it appears a moat is forming around the eye of Laura. Possible eye wall replacement cycle soon?.......MGC

[CronkPSU]

Not sure it matters much with this kind of storm surge but will it be approaching land fall at low or high tide?

[Michele B]

New Video Update on Laura
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5XL2STvZ8g

The last couple frames on that loop look like she’s taking a decidedly northern jog.

Maybe just a wobble.

[aspen]

The next AF recon plane is already in the Gulf and should be inside Laura within the next 30-45 minutes.

[wx98]

The IR presentation shows the eye becoming increasingly more circular and better defined by the hour.

[Blinhart]

Not sure it matters much with this kind of storm surge but will it be approaching land fall at low or high tide?

Highest tide of the month

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298626656400224257



 https://twitter.com/tomorleans75/status/1298629159359582208



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298648322698293249



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298650656857821187



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1298653428806234117

[Beef Stew]

Latest visible imagery from GOES-16 strongly suggests that Laura is increasingly likely to attain Category-5 status during the next six to twelve hours. Note that outflow is expanding and also migrating northward on the northern side of the system, suggesting that Laura’s strong convection is partly modulating its environs via robust anticyclonic flow. This could also serve to enhance mesoscale ridging and therefore enable Laura, despite its intensity, to make landfall between Holly Beach and Cameron vs. locations farther east, placing Lake Charles in the northeastern quadrant. Additionally, intense eyewall convection is starting to form an incipient “ring” or “doughnut” on radar.

As I'm sure you know, Hurricane Michael reached CAT 4 at approximately 06z on October 10th (2018), and reached CAT 5 at 17z right at landfall later that day. Assuming that the recon data is valid and Laura is currently nearing or at CAT 4 strength, a run to CAT 5 has precedent in the timeframe Laura has left (obviously this isn't a given, though).