ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

[Fancy1001]

The IR presentation shows the eye becoming increasingly more circular and better defined by the hour.

It also looks like it does a little hop at the end.

[SunnyThoughts]

The next AF recon plane is already in the Gulf and should be inside Laura within the next 30-45 minutes.

Hope their com's are working

[Blinhart]

For those that don't know the topography of Louisiana, there are no big hills along the coast, you won't find any hills that are over 20 feet high (unless man made) anywhere south of I10. It is a steady rise from sea level to 20 feet above sea level about 30 or so miles in, that is why they are saying storm surge can have effects 30 or more miles in, and there are many rivers that connect to the Gulf and they have branches that spread out, so that is another reason.

[cheezyWXguy]

CDO is actually cooling right now as the eye warms. 150-160mph definitely seems like a reasonable peak to me. How close to landfall it attains that peak is another question.

[HouTXmetro]

Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Post by CronkPSU » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:06 am

Not sure it matters much with this kind of storm surge but will it be approaching land fall at low or high tide?
Re: ATL: LAURA - Hurricane - Discussion
Post by MGC » Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:06 am

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

The storm is now on longrange Lake Charles radar. We can easily discern the motion better. I'm seeing NW with NNW jogs here and there.

[wx98]

Looking at the long range radar loop out of Lake Charles, it appears a moat is forming around the eye of Laura. Possible eye wall replacement cycle soon?.......MGC

I see that as well. Let’s see if they find an outer wind maxima here in a little bit.

[jlauderdal]

The next AF recon plane is already in the Gulf and should be inside Laura within the next 30-45 minutes.

Hope their com's are working

Now is the time for non-stop recon

[Highteeld]

You can tell it's still intensifying quite a bit by the mini hot towers going off

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1298656259177144321



 https://twitter.com/CTVStanfield/status/1298656199353794561



 https://twitter.com/severestudios/status/1298656179514683393



 https://twitter.com/MikeBWeather/status/1298656011860025348



 https://twitter.com/twcenterpr/status/1298655926514331649




Note that the CDO is becoming very symmetrical on the latest satellite frames. Dual outflow channels are now firmly establishing themselves.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Unrelenting strengthening. IMO Cat 5 won't even be surprising at this point. NHC is currently calling for 145mph so 160mph seems completely conceivable as this storm has been running a little ahead of schedule intensity wise. Not saying it will happen just saying it would not shock me at all currently. Could easily pull a Michael and hit minimum Cat 5 just before landfal.


https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

[Highteeld]

30 dBZ up to 50,000 feet in the eyewall

[FLpanhandle91]

Looking at the long range radar loop out of Lake Charles, it appears a moat is forming around the eye of Laura. Possible eye wall replacement cycle soon?.......MGC

I see that as well. Let’s see if they find an outer wind maxima here in a little bit.

Could be the nature of the radar beam being tilted to the 25,0000+ foot level at that distance being obscured by those cloud tops and then picking up the subsequent higher tops around the eye? It appears that the apparent most feature is filling in on radar now.

[wkwally]

I am hearing a lot of talk in here about Laura becoming a cat 5 hurricane what are the thoughts on the NHC changing their forcast to reflect this?

[Hurricaneman]

I am hearing a lot of talk in here about Laura becoming a cat 5 hurricane what are the thoughts on the NHC changing their forcast to reflect this?

It’s conjecture at this point, they’re not expecting cat 5

[tiger_deF]

I am hearing a lot of talk in here about Laura becoming a cat 5 hurricane what are the thoughts on the NHC changing their forcast to reflect this?

The nature of hurricanes at such an intensity are so intertwined with complex core dynamics, and so hard to predict, as well as requiring perfect conditions, that the NHC rarely forecasts a storm to explicitly become one

[us89]

I am hearing a lot of talk in here about Laura becoming a cat 5 hurricane what are the thoughts on the NHC changing their forcast to reflect this?

NHC will almost never forecast a 5 unless it's already there, to keep panic levels down

[edu2703]

I am hearing a lot of talk in here about Laura becoming a cat 5 hurricane what are the thoughts on the NHC changing their forcast to reflect this?

NHC Forecast Discussion #27

Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical wind shear remains low. Laura's intensity could level-off by this evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall. Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to bean extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the northwestern Gulf coast

[Highteeld]

2020AUG26 160000 5.7 948.6 107.2 5.7 6.4 6.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 13.34 -68.99 EYE 19 IR 78.4 27.01 92.10 COMBO GOES16 36.8

[Beef Stew]

I am hearing a lot of talk in here about Laura becoming a cat 5 hurricane what are the thoughts on the NHC changing their forcast to reflect this?

Very low. In my opinion, the only case this would happen would be if recon found undeniable evidence of Laura attaining category 5 intensity just prior to landfall, in which case they may bump it up in a special advisory. Ultimately they are very, very weary to explicitly forecast category 5 landfalls due to the rarity and sheer number of things that have to fall into place for them to occur.