ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

Center dropsonde: 953/9kts

NE eyewall dropsonde: only 86 kt at the surface, but 140 kt at 930 mb (900 ft)

That’s scary. Those winds will make their way down to the surface eventually won’t they?

Yes, the 140kts could easily mix down to the surface from that altitude. Cat 5 gusts should be expected in cat 4 storms

[Highteeld]

Some of the bouys near Laura are reporting 34ft waves

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42395

Treacherous

[cainjamin]

Center dropsonde: 953/9kts

NE eyewall dropsonde: only 86 kt at the surface, but 140 kt at 930 mb (900 ft)

That’s scary. Those winds will make their way down to the surface eventually won’t they?

Yes, the 140kts could easily mix down to the surface from that altitude. Cat 5 gusts should be expected in cat 4 storms

The sonde also splashed down in the NW quadrant where the winds are likely a little weaker. You know it's a powerful storm when the sondes get blown into the next quadrant over.

[KWT]

1:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 27.3°N 92.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

Kinda had to go straight to 120kts based on recon!

Impressive hurricane, best of luck to everyone. Because I don't think we are done strengthening based on the current presentation

[Hurrilurker]

Pressure only 953? That's surprisingly high to me.

[sponger]

I'm definitely concerned about this track being more west

GFS and Euro both underestimated strength by over 20 MB. Time will tell if it impacts track.

[Stormcenter]

An illusion, it’s still moving NW.

https://i.imgur.com/bF1bVa6.gif
Wow.

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

[SconnieCane]

Delete.

[GCANE]

VDM:

953mb
27.21N 92.35W
Closed Cir Eye 25 nm wide
55% RH at 700mb

No sign of any upcoming EWRC

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1298679219988430851



 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1298681196201889793



 https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1298681254653636610



 https://twitter.com/Meteovilles/status/1298681131198488577



 https://twitter.com/Weather225DFW/status/1298680822313160705

[Fancy1001]

New 366 Theta E ridge has developed W of the CoC.
She'll likely track thru it if it expands.
Otherwise will entrain most of it.

Dryline convection has expanded dramatically.
She's has taken out all the dry air that she could have tracked into on approach.

Latest GFS has 13 knt shear on approach.

Starting to look like strengthening could happen all the way to landfall if an EWRC doesn't occur.

Would be extremely bad if a large hot tower would fire on landfall.
They have been packing mega helicity.


https://i.imgur.com/g8pYdo0.png

https://i.imgur.com/LCcPdGT.png

https://i.imgur.com/eh3gA0P.png

So basically there is very little stopping it from strengthening all the way to landfall, other than an ERC. Is that correct?

[cfisher]

The windfield on the NE side is massive. Storm surge fetch will be catastrophic

[northjaxpro]

Be safe everyone please. and if you can get out, please get out. I survived Hurricane Irma. We in the Caribbean have nowhere to evacuate to. I don't want to ever go through a CAT 4 or 5 again.

Amen Msbee. I really pray and hope to my heart that people have left and got the heck out of that region. This is seriously about plain common sense right now. Protecting life is the utmost at this point!!

[sponger]

An illusion, it’s still moving NW.

https://i.imgur.com/bF1bVa6.gif
Wow.

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

Stair stepping its way right into Galveston Bay. Going to be yet another exciting critical turn the NHC is famous for forecasting correctly.

[wx98]

New 366 Theta E ridge has developed W of the CoC.
She'll likely track thru it if it expands.
Otherwise will entrain most of it.

Dryline convection has expanded dramatically.
She's has taken out all the dry air that she could have tracked into on approach.

Latest GFS has 13 knt shear on approach.

Starting to look like strengthening could happen all the way to landfall if an EWRC doesn't occur.

Would be extremely bad if a large hot tower would fire on landfall.
They have been packing mega helicity.


https://i.imgur.com/g8pYdo0.png

https://i.imgur.com/LCcPdGT.png

https://i.imgur.com/eh3gA0P.png

So basically there is very little stopping it from strengthening all the way to landfall, other than an ERC. Is that correct?

Correct

[FLpanhandle91]

Pressure only 953? That's surprisingly high to me.

Background pressure throughout the storm is increasing as the eye contracts and pressure gradients become tighter. Very possible that pressure drops slow down a bit and wind speeds continue to rise.

[GCANE]

New 366 Theta E ridge has developed W of the CoC.
She'll likely track thru it if it expands.
Otherwise will entrain most of it.

Dryline convection has expanded dramatically.
She's has taken out all the dry air that she could have tracked into on approach.

Latest GFS has 13 knt shear on approach.

Starting to look like strengthening could happen all the way to landfall if an EWRC doesn't occur.

Would be extremely bad if a large hot tower would fire on landfall.
They have been packing mega helicity.


https://i.imgur.com/g8pYdo0.png

https://i.imgur.com/LCcPdGT.png

https://i.imgur.com/eh3gA0P.png

So basically there is very little stopping it from strengthening all the way to landfall, other than an ERC. Is that correct?

Pretty much.

[Fancy1001]

An illusion, it’s still moving NW.

I swear that eye is still moving more west than north. It's almost due south of Lake Charles. Is the storm supposed to do a 90 degree turn north at this point?

Stair stepping its way right into Galveston Bay. Going to be yet another exciting critical turn the NHC is famous for forecasting correctly.

Is that suppose to be sarcastic at the end?

[catskillfire51]

Definitely hugging the west side of the cone!

[Rail Dawg]

On I-10 E in Beaumont TX. First feeder band.