ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1298690437843054597

[catskillfire51]

Recon is reporting and at the eye again.

[supercane4867]

If you peak at some of the 1-minute imagery, you can see that appeared to be a bit of dry air but it is now being exhausted out of the system. Solid eyewall on IR is beginning to take shape again.

That left side is about where the shear axis is. Laura is expected to turn and move more NW and north, just barely getting into that higher shear zone before landfall.

Yup!

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1298688804732231683

Looks like Laura's intensification party is gonna be over soon!

CIMSS shear map is inaccurate in real-time.

[tolakram]

That left side is about where the shear axis is. Laura is expected to turn and move more NW and north, just barely getting into that higher shear zone before landfall.

Yup! Looks like Laura's intensification party is gonna be over soon!


https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1298688804732231683

I don't agree with this, but I'm not a met. I pointed it out, but I don't think it will do anything to prevent further intensification. We'll see, cat 5 storms are very rare as it is.

[Hurrilurker]

Really wish people would stop saying Houston is in the cross hairs still, that would would be a catastrophic failure if it happens.

Everyone should be prepared but that would be quite a change at this point and NHC is not indicating that at all.

[wx98]

Really wish people would stop saying Houston is in the cross hairs still, that would would be a catastrophic failure if it happens.

It actually isn’t even going toward Houston at all. It is heading straight for Sabine Pass by looking at long radar loops.

[Highteeld]

That left side is about where the shear axis is. Laura is expected to turn and move more NW and north, just barely getting into that higher shear zone before landfall.

Yup!

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1298688804732231683

Looks like Laura's intensification party is gonna be over soon!

CIMSS shear map is inaccurate in real-time.

Yep. delayed 6-12 hours

[GCANE]

Scoping out Car Washes

 https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298691220894433280

[p1nheadlarry]

I noticed that as well, you think it'd be lower.
Florence (150 Mph) - 937 mb
Harvey (130 mph) - 937 mb
Joaquin (155 mph) - 931 mb
Gonzalo (145 mph) - 940 mb
The only storm I found in recent years around Laura's strength with such a relatively "high" pressure was Nicole in 2016.. wonder what the reasoning is.

Higher environmental pressure; remember it's the pressure gradient that drives the wind speed not just lower pressure. Matthew was the same way (Cat 5 @ 940-ish)

Thanks, that's a good explanation. Which means the absolute pressure really isn't that important. Wouldn't it be more useful if instead of the historical record featuring the lowest pressure and landfall pressure prominently, they instead focused on the pressure differential? That would seem to be a more accurate description of the storm's strength.

Well with wind categories, in a way we do. That's how the wind speeds are calculated in the model (GFD momentum equation), including in reanalysis (though of course you are hindered by lack of obs and more interpolation the father back you go, especially pre-1979). Pressure gradient isn't something an observation station can record and it's pretty straightforward to benchmark storms that way. But in any case, we're only looking at +/- 5 to 10 hPa; not much difference between 950 hPa Laura and 940 hPa Hugo in that regard.

[GCANE]

Recon reporting stadium effect

[Highteeld]

[northjaxpro]

Yup! Looks like Laura's intensification party is gonna be over soon!


https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1298688804732231683

I don't agree with this, but I'm not a met. I pointed it out, but I don't think it will do anything to prevent further intensification. We'll see, cat 5 storms are very rare as it is.

Exactly . There will not be much of or any difference at all from the impacts and effects at landfall from a powerful Cat 4 or lower end Cat 5.

[tropicwatch]

This is how I have been watching for the turn, i put that waypoint at about 10:30am, granted it's not perfect. So far you can see she hasn't started her turn yet but she should soon. The first picture is now and the second picture is an hour ago. ****NOTE*** That red line is not a projection I am just using that as a reference.

https://i.imgur.com/iZ04ryl.png
https://i.imgur.com/tEocYOJ.png

Radar picking up the northward turn it looks like.
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/index.php?menu=/home/metop/web/specific/opv/menu_config.txt&year=2020&month=8&day=26&hour=17&minute=28&time_mode=static&zoom=7&clon=-92.814453125&clat=29.06042626081124&base=0&overlays=1&mping_mode=0&product_type=crefls&product=CREF&opacity=1&looping_active=on&num_frames=18&frame_step=200&seconds_step=600

[tolakram]

Scoping out Car Washes

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298691220894433280

Now we're talking! Stay safe Jeff, and find us a blue shed.

[EquusStorm]

Should the hurricane chasers run to Rockport and grab Blue Shed to stay safe during landfall?

Lol beat me to it

[tropicwatch]

Scoping out Car Washes

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1298691220894433280

Now we're talking! Stay safe Jeff, and find us a blue shed.

[Extratropical94]

183500 2720N 09229W 6966 02711 9447 +210 +074 224012 017 030 001 00

[NotoSans]

Extrapolated pressure down to 944.7mb. Next eye sonde likely in the high 940s.

[catskillfire51]

This is how I have been watching for the turn, i put that waypoint at about 10:30am, granted it's not perfect. So far you can see she hasn't started her turn yet but she should soon. The first picture is now and the second picture is an hour ago. ****NOTE*** That red line is not a projection I am just using that as a reference.

https://i.imgur.com/iZ04ryl.png
https://i.imgur.com/tEocYOJ.png

Radar picking up the northward turn it looks like.
https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/index.php?menu=/home/metop/web/specific/opv/menu_config.txt&year=2020&month=8&day=26&hour=17&minute=28&time_mode=static&zoom=7&clon=-92.814453125&clat=29.06042626081124&base=0&overlays=1&mping_mode=0&product_type=crefls&product=CREF&opacity=1&looping_active=on&num_frames=18&frame_step=200&seconds_step=600

Hopefully just have to make sure it's not a wobble.

[cainjamin]

Wow. 8 mbar drop between passes. Laura's continuing to intensify quickly.