ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Janie2006]

https://i.imgur.com/gmGc7yW.jpg

Look at her. Classic, which isn’t to say that anyone here likes this for the Sabine Pass. If I had to guess I’d say the best hope is indeed an ERC, and even that doesn’t seem to be in the cards at the moment.

[tolakram]

730
URNT12 KNHC 261903
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 26/18:36:40Z
B. 27.40 deg N 092.56 deg W
C. 700 mb 2670 m
D. 950 mb
E. 280 deg 18 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 104 kt
I. 136 deg 19 nm 18:30:00Z
J. 242 deg 115 kt
K. 137 deg 16 nm 18:31:00Z
L. 105 kt
M. 317 deg 13 nm 18:40:30Z
N. 045 deg 115 kt
O. 315 deg 18 nm 18:42:00Z
P. 13 C / 3067 m
Q. 21 C / 3047 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF307 2313A LAURA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 131 KT 024 / 16 NM 17:20:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 360 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[GCANE]

https://i.imgur.com/qEsNjfM.png

Back on its forecast track?

South / West of forecast track

[dantonlsu]

https://i.imgur.com/qEsNjfM.png

Still a bit south eh

[cainjamin]

Laura has a large and stable 25nm eye. We know larger eyes are more stable and less prone to EWRC - I would bet against one developing before landfall.

[sponger]

Please correct me if I am wrong but am I seeing a more turn to the North?

Wobble.

[lrak]

Nice HD cam in Galveston....https://g-townsurf.com/ Called a few friends up that way and everyone is biting their nails. Prayers for all!!!!

[Fancy1001]

Two big questions remain, does this stay on a NW path and head more towards Galveston and Houston, and does Laura reach category 5 before landfall?

[GCANE]

From a post-doc tropical-cyclone researcher

 https://twitter.com/XiaominChen7/status/1298694724698746881

[jlauderdal]

730
URNT12 KNHC 261903
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 26/18:36:40Z
B. 27.40 deg N 092.56 deg W
C. 700 mb 2670 m
D. 950 mb
E. 280 deg 18 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 104 kt
I. 136 deg 19 nm 18:30:00Z
J. 242 deg 115 kt
K. 137 deg 16 nm 18:31:00Z
L. 105 kt
M. 317 deg 13 nm 18:40:30Z
N. 045 deg 115 kt
O. 315 deg 18 nm 18:42:00Z
P. 13 C / 3067 m
Q. 21 C / 3047 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF307 2313A LAURA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 131 KT 024 / 16 NM 17:20:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 360 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

doesn't get much healthier than that drop....the next question is, will this be the storm of the season?

[cfisher]

One of the great storms of the century. Unreal

[GCANE]

Laura has a large and stable 25nm eye. We know larger eyes are more stable and less prone to EWRC - I would bet against one developing before landfall.

Relative Humidity has been dropping all day in the eye according to drop data.
A good sign an EWRC is approaching is when the RH goes up.
The opposite is occurring.
A very stable intensification is underway.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

One of the great storms of the century. Unreal

Certainly up there with recent GOMEX storms like Harvey and Michael.

[Fancy1001]

730
URNT12 KNHC 261903
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 26/18:36:40Z
B. 27.40 deg N 092.56 deg W
C. 700 mb 2670 m
D. 950 mb
E. 280 deg 18 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 104 kt
I. 136 deg 19 nm 18:30:00Z
J. 242 deg 115 kt
K. 137 deg 16 nm 18:31:00Z
L. 105 kt
M. 317 deg 13 nm 18:40:30Z
N. 045 deg 115 kt
O. 315 deg 18 nm 18:42:00Z
P. 13 C / 3067 m
Q. 21 C / 3047 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF307 2313A LAURA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 131 KT 024 / 16 NM 17:20:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 360 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

doesn't get much healthier than that drop....the next question is, will this be the storm of the season?

I have a feeling it will be the second.

[Ken711]

730
URNT12 KNHC 261903
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 26/18:36:40Z
B. 27.40 deg N 092.56 deg W
C. 700 mb 2670 m
D. 950 mb
E. 280 deg 18 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C25
H. 104 kt
I. 136 deg 19 nm 18:30:00Z
J. 242 deg 115 kt
K. 137 deg 16 nm 18:31:00Z
L. 105 kt
M. 317 deg 13 nm 18:40:30Z
N. 045 deg 115 kt
O. 315 deg 18 nm 18:42:00Z
P. 13 C / 3067 m
Q. 21 C / 3047 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF307 2313A LAURA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 131 KT 024 / 16 NM 17:20:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 360 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

doesn't get much healthier than that drop....the next question is, will this be the storm of the season?

May very well be the storm of the 2020 season still in only August.

[Highteeld]

Starting to see some banding features on radar around the eye

[Tireman4]

https://i.imgur.com/qEsNjfM.png

Back on its forecast track?

South / West of forecast track

If this keeps up to 6 pm, I raise an eyebrow.

[xironman]

Nice HD cam in Galveston....https://g-townsurf.com/ Called a few friends up that way and everyone is biting their nails. Prayers for all!!!!

Good waves and an offshore wind though

[MetsIslesNoles]

May very well be the storm of the 2020 season still in only August.

Scary thought... plenty of time for something else to surpass it.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

May very well be the storm of the 2020 season still in only August.

Scary thought... plenty of time for something else to surpass it.

Indeed. We thought Harvey might have been the storm of the 2017 season, until two weeks later.