ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Recon fix confirmed a definite NNW turn now, which I alluded to several minutes ago. Cameron/Holly Beach in the crosshairs...

So are we ruling out a Texas center of landfall now?

Jefferson County TX for sure cannot be ruled out for official landfall.

[WC08]

Eye Drop
947mb
27.6N 92.7W
RH = 56%

Relative Humidity up from 46% last drop.
Watching if the trend continues.

What would that mean if the trend continues?

[sma10]

I wonder if any chasers will be in Cameron, LA. It’s a tiny town right on the coast and will likely get the worst impacts.

Chasers are already there and they are trapped in vehicles from the 2ft storm surge that has already arrived.

Good grief, there are chasers in Cameron?!

[cfisher]

I think the RH increase in the eye is mesos wrapping around displacing the structure. A sign of intensification

[Cunxi Huang]

No evidence of an EWRC at least from this perspective.

https://i.imgur.com/0YeFKEu.png

Agree. But some would argue that it has a few rain rate spikes which can be an early indication of EWRC.

[wx98]

Eye Drop
947mb
27.6N 92.7W
RH = 56%

Relative Humidity up from 46% last drop.
Watching if the trend continues.

What would that mean if the trend continues?

Higher humidity in the eye can sometimes signal it will become cloud filled as an EWRC starts. Not sure if that is the case here though...

[KWT]

Yep no evidence of any EWRC on the recon data yet. Probably getting late in the day for that to be happening and save us from a 4/5 hurricane. Its coming in at that level, its just exactly how close we run to a 5 that is the main question.

Given those winds between 930-900mbs, I think there is a reasonable shot that within the next 6-9hrs those will mix down to the surface, its just whether recon catches a decent hit from that when it happens. Might be another borderline call.

Regardless, looking like its going to be one of those historic Gulf hurricanes...

PS - dropsonde definately supports 125kts now

[cfisher]

Lightning still occurring in the eyewall. It's nowhere near its peak IMO, but I could be wrong.

[wx98]

Carl Parker on TWC has been throwing around Category 5 very liberally in the last couple hours...

[SunnyThoughts]

Yep no evidence of any EWRC on the recon data yet. Probably getting late in the day for that to be happening and save us from a 4/5 hurricane. Its coming in at that level, its just exactly how close we run to a 5 that is the main question.

Given those winds between 930-900mbs, I think there is a reasonable shot that within the next 6-9hrs those will mix down to the surface, its just whether recon catches a decent hit from that when it happens. Might be another borderline call.

Regardless, looking like its going to be one of those historic Gulf hurricanes...

Seeing 155 KT @900mb per another site. Maybe 145 mph at next update? Or will they keep it as is?

[KWT]

Yep no evidence of any EWRC on the recon data yet. Probably getting late in the day for that to be happening and save us from a 4/5 hurricane. Its coming in at that level, its just exactly how close we run to a 5 that is the main question.

Given those winds between 930-900mbs, I think there is a reasonable shot that within the next 6-9hrs those will mix down to the surface, its just whether recon catches a decent hit from that when it happens. Might be another borderline call.

Regardless, looking like its going to be one of those historic Gulf hurricanes...

Seeing 155 KT @900mb per another site. Maybe 145 mph at next update? Or will they keep it as is?

Yes, and anything below that is probably going to be mixed down in gusts even if it doesn't sustain in the eyewall, so likely looking at max gusts in the 145-155kts range at the moment. Any further deepening of Laura probably brings cat-5 into play.

[sikkar]

Eye appears to be contracting at a fast clip.

[wkwally]

Carl Parker on TWC has been throwing around Category 5 very liberally in the last couple hours...

I am always cautious about what TWC says but they do show good footage of landfall when they get the location right.

[Blown Away]

NNW turn pretty clear.

[Highteeld]

Delta increasing more

2020AUG26 202020 6.5 929.1 127.0 6.3 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 20.26 -67.87 EYE 28 IR 9.9 27.82 92.69 ARCHER GOES16 37.7

[Blinhart]

Do you know if they have placed any portable weather reading stations along Hwy 82 that can relay real-time info to them??

[Nederlander]

https://i.imgur.com/JRilLlQ.gif
NNW turn pretty clear.

Not following the recon fixes, but visible looks almost due north now. If that trend continues with no weird wobbles, then that’s good news for the Texas surge prone areas west Sabine Pass.

[Blinhart]

The question is will they go with 150 in the next 20 minutes and predict a Cat 5 landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The question is will they go with 150 in the next 20 minutes and predict a Cat 5 landfall.

Dropsonde suggests 150mph, SFMR suggests 140mph, so I think a reasonable blend would be 125 knots. I doubt they'll explicit forecast Category 5.

[Beef Stew]

The question is will they go with 150 in the next 20 minutes and predict a Cat 5 landfall.

Doubtful; they'll probably bump it up to 145 with possibly 150 being the landfall intensity.