ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

DMAX will probably send ADT #'s over 7

[wx98]

In the discussion they mention Laura still having another 12 hours prior to landfall, so the timeframe is a little later now

Center of the eye is 135 miles SSE of Cameron.
That suggests ~9 hours til landfall.

[supercane4867]

NHC now expects storm surge to penetrate 40 miles inland instead of 30 miles...

[hipshot]

Please everyone post live webcams and other similar links in the Observations thread specifcally made for this cyclone. This will make easier for everyone to find . This will be especially for tonight and the early wee hours tomorrow morning with Laura's approach and landfall.

Where is the Observations thread?

[Beef Stew]

If I had a shot everytime I hear about a potential EWRC I'd have blood in my alcohol system

We would all like to see an EWRC I think because it would cause her to lose some of her wind speed and with her being so close to land would have trouble regaining it, but I just don't see it happening.

An EWRC is the last thing the Gulf coast needs, it would expand the wind radii and cause an even more catastrophic storm surge.

The cloud tops of the west quad are cooling, looks like a sub-935mb hurricane based on IR appearance. I can't believe its 946mb, doesn't seem right for a Gulf TC like this one. Are the estimates pre-sonde in recon always lower for pressure? What is the deal with that anyways?

The environmental background pressures are high, so the pressure seeming higher than normal despite the winds makes sense.

[wkwally]

Just seen that the State of Texas sent two C-130s to Port Arthur to help with evacuations.

[syfr]

Please everyone post live webcams and other similar links in the Observations thread specifcally made for this cyclone. This will make easier for everyone to find . This will be especially for tonight and the early wee hours tomorrow morning with Laura's approach and landfall.

Where is the Observations thread?

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viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121244

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea the slowed increase in intensification shows that it has probably peaked now. Another 5 mph is always possible, but I betcha it’s peaked

[wx98]

We would all like to see an EWRC I think because it would cause her to lose some of her wind speed and with her being so close to land would have trouble regaining it, but I just don't see it happening.

An EWRC is the last thing the Gulf coast needs, it would expand the wind radii and cause an even more catastrophic storm surge.

The cloud tops of the west quad are cooling, looks like a sub-935mb hurricane based on IR appearance. I can't believe its 946mb, doesn't seem right for a Gulf TC like this one. Are the estimates pre-sonde in recon always lower for pressure? What is the deal with that anyways?

The environmental background pressures are high, so the pressure seeming higher than normal despite the winds makes sense.

And mid-940s for a mid-Cat 4 isn’t unrealistically high. There have been plenty of 940s Category 4s.

[aspen]

How long until the next recon flight takes off?

[ColdMiser123]

Pretty impressive increase in eyewall lightning in the last 15 minutes, probably about to go under another bout of intensification.

[cfisher]

Massive lightning burst in the SE eyewall yikes

[TallyTracker]

NHC is now saying surge up to 40 miles inland now!

[Snowman67]

The winds shown for my area (Tomball) on this map are much higher than what the NWS forecast for my area shows. Any idea what type of gusts I will have in my area. Trying to decide if I need to bring in the patio furniture.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=hgx

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yea the slowed increase in intensification shows that it has probably peaked now. Another 5 mph is always possible, but I betcha it’s peaked

another 5-10mph is very possible. it's about to fire more convection.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yea the slowed increase in intensification shows that it has probably peaked now. Another 5 mph is always possible, but I betcha it’s peaked

I disagree. With cloud tops still cooling, 155-160mph should still be fair game.

[wx98]

How long until the next recon flight takes off?

NOAA plane supposed to soon. AF plane in a few hours.

0120 PM EDT TUE 25 AUGUST 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-091 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE LAURA (CORRECTED)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 26/1730Z,2030Z,2330Z A. 27/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2313A LAURA B. NOAA3 2413A LAURA
C. 26/1415Z C. 26/2100Z
D. 27.0N 92.4W D. 28.0N 93.3W
E. 26/1700Z TO 26/2330Z E. 26/2200Z TO 27/0400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 75
A. 27/0230Z,0530Z,0830Z A. 27/1130Z,1430Z
B. AFXXX 2513A LAURA B. AFXXX 2613A LAURA
C. 26/2330Z C. 27/0845Z
D. 28.6N 93.5W D. 29.5N 93.9W
E. 27/0200Z TO 27/0830Z E. 27/1100Z TO 27/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[syfr]

The winds shown for my area (Tomball) on this map are much higher than what the NWS forecast for my area shows. Any idea what type of gusts I will have in my area. Trying to decide if I need to bring in the patio furniture.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=hgx

Bring in now, worry less later.

[ColdMiser123]

IR satellite still shows some asymmetries within the eye, so there is still room for intensification with any more combining mesoscale vortices.

[cfisher]

Levi tweeted that VWS now starting to affect the storm, but there's a possibility it could be divergent like with Michael.