ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sgastorm]

https://i.ibb.co/WcCCKRk/recon-NOAA2-2413-A-LAURA-dropsonde3-20200826-2301.png

The 878 mb level had almost 200 mph winds. Ouch.

[Tekken_Guy]

Does it have enough time to reach C5?

[TallahasseeMan]

At this rate I think we get CAT-5 SFMR in the next pass...

[HurricaneEnzo]

Does it have enough time to reach C5?

Yes

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[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not sure if it was posted or not (thread is flying at light speed), but this dropsonde is absolutely insane.

[dukeblue219]

Does it have enough time to reach C5?

Absolutely, especially when we consider post-season storm evaluations. Will it get there in real time, hard to say. Those 150+ knot gusts aren't high off the water, so 140kt sustained at the surface could happen on the next pass through the NE quad and show up at 11pm. Might not, but there's still time the way it's bombing out.

[EquusStorm]

Time for sunset shots. What a beast.

[PTrackerLA]

Gonna be a long night for the home team. I can't even believe I'm seeing this and how close I am to such a monster. Never imagined such a strong and STILL intensifying hurricane in these parts. My heart breaks for those who are about to lose so much. Keep Louisiana and SE Texas in your thoughts and prayers tonight.

[jdjaguar]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1298768646165102602?s=20

Be nice if he defined “just above the ground”.
100ft? 500ft?

[tolakram]

[Ken711]

NHC update:

...WINDS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT...
7:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 28.4°N 92.9°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[storminabox]

I’ll be honest, I never thought we’d be talking about a cat 5 hurricane here. This storm has gone well above and beyond my expectations. Terrible news for those that live in the landfall zone!

[PandaCitrus]

I think a Texas landfall can be ruled out based on radar tracking as well as a TX/LA border landfall. I guess the only question now is whether the eye is going to go just east of Lake Charles or directly over Lake Charles.

18z HWRF/HMON agree on a Lake Charles direct hit.

[KWT]

At this rate I think we get CAT-5 SFMR in the next pass...

I think we'd be un/lucky for neither of the aircraft in the next several passes/dropsondes not to pick up a single 135kts+ wind sustained at the surface.

Radar velocities may end up getting high enough for the NHC to pull the trigger, it has happened in the past with upgrades of hurricanes through radar obs. Especially if we keep getting low 130s SMRF/dropsonde reports.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Surge is already beginning to inundate Cameron, LA.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1Ee4F7q-o

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1298768108992200704

Those shouldn’t fully mix down to the surface, but with hours before landfall, I’m starting to think 150 kt is on the table.

[Hammy]

At this rate I think we get CAT-5 SFMR in the next pass...

I think we'd be un/lucky for neither of the aircraft in the next several passes/dropsondes not to pick up a single 135kts+ wind sustained at the surface.

Radar velocities may end up getting high enough for the NHC to pull the trigger, it has happened in the past with upgrades of hurricanes through radar obs. Especially if we keep getting low 130s SMRF/dropsonde reports.

Worth noting NOAA planes tend to record lower winds, though I have no idea why this is. But I've seen numerous storms where both planes were in there and AF winds higher/pressures lower.

[sponger]

SSTs just offshore the potential landfall location are currently among the highest in the entire gulf.

https://i.imgur.com/FG0u6Tv.png

so 87-88 degrees or so? Wow!

[wkwally]

I think a Texas landfall can be ruled out based on radar tracking as well as a TX/LA border landfall. I guess the only question now is whether the eye is going to go just east of Lake Charles or directly over Lake Charles.

18z HWRF/HMON agree on a Lake Charles direct hit.

From my area I wonder if we will even get a rain drop.

[GCANE]

Highest rain rate I have ever seen.
80 mm/hr unflagged in the eyewall.
She is bombing out.