2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[HurricaneFrances04]

Interesting SW dive on the Euro. Reminds me of Irma, but at a lower latitude.

[TallahasseeMan]

The GFS and CMC seem to agree that something gets spun up around there, though they develop it about a day later then the Euro. I think the NHC will have to bump up the probabilities later today.

[MarioProtVI]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200827/9de66f4b6f816dcc45a6b88e4bb2420f.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200827/1292786fb26f4c08a68fe812d617945a.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200827/e7c5cf731bac16e837f256f587ff07f7.jpg
The trend on the recent Euro runs has been for more development.


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If the EURO of all models is starting to catch onto a hurricane in the MDR, that’s likely to be more intense given it’s poor history of MDR genesis this year. Might be the ACE maker we need if it verifies.

[sma10]

Interesting SW dive on the Euro. Reminds me of Irma, but at a lower latitude.

The dreaded SW dive, of which nothing good ever comes

[sma10]

Looking at all the 12z models this afternoon, it is not outrageous to believe that we could have 3 or 4 named storms in the next 10 days

[SFLcane]

Sure lol... Very confident that exact solution will not pan out.

[TallahasseeMan]

Sure lol... Very confident that exact solution will not pan out.

https://i.imgur.com/kSF7HkN.gif

It's noticeable that unlike Laura the global models are sniffing out development in the region.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interesting SW dive on the Euro. Reminds me of Irma, but at a lower latitude.

The dreaded SW dive, of which nothing good ever comes

Yes, we'll need to watch trends closely and see if the Euro becomes consistent with a SW dive. Irma, Ike, and many other storms all did a SW dive in the central Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

No real strong signal from EPS yet.

[Hammy]

Pretty good agreement we could see the early September parade of storms that's been shown in the longer term for months now.

Icon showing hurricane Nana and TS Omar by next Friday


CMC has two storms by Labor Day weekend, with a third fairly tight wave coming off Africa at 240.


Euro has four potential systems, given it's history of not developing things.


GFS similarly, a bit further out.

[SconnieCane]

With that ridge, only one way that cyclone depicted is going...

[Fancy1001]

:uarrow: With that ridge, only one way that cyclone depicted is going...

North or west?

also which storm in the models are you referring to the one close to the states or the one in the middle of the Atlantic.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow: With that ridge, only one way that cyclone depicted is going...

North or west?

also which storm in the models are you referring to the one close to the states or the one in the middle of the Atlantic.

West. Models are depicting strong ridging across the Atlantic blocking the storms from a north turn.

[dantonlsu]

Well isn't that just fitting for 2020

[Nimbus]

I'll wait for the invest, but hate the 2020 mid Atlantic ridge pattern.

[aspen]

18z GFS goes nuts in the next 10 days. The AEW at 41W develops into a weak system, a second wave develops in 5-6 days before eventually becoming a hurricane in the MDR, and a third wave quickly develops behind it.

[cycloneye]

Is a tradition that there is always something to track on Labor day weekend.

[TheStormExpert]

No real strong signal from EPS yet.

Still plenty of SAL and mid-level dry air out there for August 27th but as I mentioned in the indicators thread the scale might be rigged. Cycloneye posted a graphic aside the new SAL graphic which showed less SAL.

But all in all this is likely why the EPS isn’t too enthusiastic.

[AnnularCane]

Is a tradition that there is always something to track on Labor day weekend.

About as much of a tradition as cancelling the season every time there's a lull.

[TheStormExpert]

Is a tradition that there is always something to track on Labor day weekend.

Pretty much! Last year it was Dorian. 2018 had Florence. And 2017 had Irma.