ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[cfisher]

Looks ready to rip once it gets past Jamaica.

[Visioen]

You know who predicted this would still be a wave? Models did

[Aric Dunn]

You know who predicted this would still be a wave? Models did

same models predicted laura and marco and almost every other system this not to develop until they were force fed that it was there.

[cfisher]

You can see the low level clouds moving east.. there's definitely a LLC

[Aric Dunn]

banding on the east, SE and west side.

morning visible showing easterly moving low level clouds especially as you get close to the center.

sustained curved deep convection..

another ASCAT fail coming up.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[plasticup]

You know who predicted this would still be a wave? Models did

same models predicted laura and marco and almost every other system this not to develop until they were force fed that it was there.

Even a broken model is right twice a day!

[HurricaneEnzo]

Personally I feel this has been classifiable since yesterday. It has had visual evidence of an LLC for a while now. Obviously ASCAT is having some issues resolving this storm as it has with others this season.

[SouthDadeFish]

banding on the east, SE and west side.

morning visible showing easterly moving low level clouds especially as you get close to the center.

sustained curved deep convection..

another ASCAT fail coming up.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/99L.INVEST/tc_ssmis/color/2degreeticks/20200901.0950.f16.x.colorpct_91h_91v.99LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-151N-755W.059pc.jpg

Even if recon finds a closed LLC today, that doesn't mean a LLC existed last night when ASCAT sampled 99L. It's possible that a) the system still doesn't have a LLC or b) the LLC developed overnight/this morning. Regardless, I'll agree that 99L looks better organized than yesterday.

[SouthDadeFish]

Personally I feel this has been classifiable since yesterday. It has had visual evidence of an LLC for a while now. Obviously ASCAT is having some issues resolving this storm as it has with others this season.

I have yet to see clear evidence of a closed, well-defined LLC. I encourage you to provide evidence showing the contrary.

[Aric Dunn]

banding on the east, SE and west side.

morning visible showing easterly moving low level clouds especially as you get close to the center.

sustained curved deep convection..

another ASCAT fail coming up.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc20/ATL/99L.INVEST/tc_ssmis/color/2degreeticks/20200901.0950.f16.x.colorpct_91h_91v.99LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-151N-755W.059pc.jpg

Even if recon finds a closed LLC today, that doesn't mean a LLC existed last night when ASCAT sampled 99L. It's possible that a) the system still doesn't have a LLC or b) the LLC developed overnight/this morning. Regardless, I'll agree that 99L looks better organized than yesterday.

both cases are of course possible. and it also does not mean one didnt exist yesterday.

as we saw with multiple systems this year. ASCAT was having issues with forward motion and small system.. well this has both issues.

either way it is the past now.. but yeah.. convective pattern continues to improve.

[cfisher]

the better question now is where this thing is going

[chaser1]

Nana got run over by weak wind shear, walkin' home from our house one summer eve
You can say there's no such thing as ASCAT, but as for me and recon we believe....

My best guess is that recon might find some weak LLC might be close to 15.8N and 77.5W, but lacking sufficient NW to W winds for NHC to pull the TD card quite yet.
Perhaps late this eve or tomm. a.m.

[GCANE]

Looking at the spatial and temporal pattern of the lightning activity in the towers, there is clear evidence of a broad CCW rotation.
It looks to be very wide. Would take some time IMHO to develop a tight warm core.
To really snap this together, a large and long-duration vortical hot tower will need to fire.

[Ubuntwo]

Nana got run over by weak wind shear, walkin' home from our house one summer eve
You can say there's no such thing as ASCAT, but as for me and recon we believe....

My best guess is that recon might find some weak LLC might be close to 15.8N and 77.5W, but lacking sufficient NW to W winds for NHC to pull the TD card quite yet.
Perhaps late this eve or tomm. a.m.

The NHC says:

ship observations indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in the northern portion of
wave to the southeast of Jamaica

So if/when it develops a closed circ it will jump straight to TS.

[Aric Dunn]

lets see..
Td15 is probably already a TS but no recon

and since recon is flying into this one..

I will go with 99L becoming Nana first.

[wxman57]

ASCAT did hit it overnight, around 01Z. Only a wave was indicated. We started advisories yesterday. Have it moving inland into Belize Wednesday night as a 35kt TS then dissipating over Central America Thursday.

[cfisher]

there's going to be a tight LLC

[ElectricStorm]

Tropical tidbits now has this labeled as PTC 16

[USTropics]

Has been upgraded to TD 16 in best track for ATCF:

Code: Select all

AL, 16, 2020090112,   , BEST,   0, 160N,  768W,  35, 1005, LO,  34, NEQ,   70,    0,    0,   70, 1011,  120,  70,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    SIXTEEN, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 033, TRANSITIONED, alB92020 to al162020, DISSIPATED, al162020 to al992020, TRANSITIONED, alC92020 to al162020,

[cycloneye]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen

99L SIXTEEN 200901 0600 15.7N 75.3W ATL 30 1007