Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1302942437904715776

[aspen]

I’ve got a feeling that Sally is gonna be a Big One this year.

The models are forecasting quick development of Sally after the wave emerges off the coast of Africa in 4 days. Since they were (surprisingly) right about TD18’s quick genesis, I’m going to assume Sally might follow suit. They might even be close with their intensity forecasts if Sally remains south and the TUTT isn’t around. That’ll give Sally higher SSTs and less shear to work with than Paulette or Rene.

[cycloneye]

Visible image that shows the wave at Burkina-Faso.



Updates every 3 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

Visible image that shows the wave at Burkina-Faso.

https://i.imgur.com/TYwUccm.jpg

Already has a nice spin and circulation just looking at that still image.

[cycloneye]

Our friend wxman57 posted in the TD 17 thread this.

It's Nineteen we may have to worry about down the road.

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF mean says South of 20:

0z CMF Gen prob = ~80%


While GEFS drops Gen prob for hrs 48-120:

last nights 18z run was 45%

GEFs Trend (last 4 runs):

[toad strangler]

Hmmmm did i open my trap too soon

[SFLcane]

Hmmmm did i open my trap too soon

Just for you.. one of a few ugly euro ensembles for FL.

[toad strangler]

Hmmmm did i open my trap too soon

Just for you.. one of a few ugly euro ensembles for FL.

https://i.postimg.cc/MHRL2bGV/597-EAA9-C-90-D6-4-AC0-9239-45-F56-C67-D7-D5.png

And all the way down to 300 hours!

[plasticup]

06z GFS has a strengthening hurricane approaching the greater antillies. Although the lack of a Bermuda high recurves it, in that position it wouldn't take much to push this through the Caribbean Sea:

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

https://i.postimg.cc/V61vC1SC/BCE83-BC8-86-B8-46-E6-8-F28-0898-E448900-E.gif

And yet another wave right behind it at 144 hours. Looks like the MDR is making up for its lackluster performance in late August/the first week of September.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS turns this sharply north well east of the Lesser Antilles. Animation below, starts near Cape Verde islands:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS seems to be struggling with the system by splitting off multiple areas of low pressure, dragging the storm north.

[LarryWx]

Hmmmm did i open my trap too soon

Just for you.. one of a few ugly euro ensembles for FL.

https://i.postimg.cc/MHRL2bGV/597-EAA9-C-90-D6-4-AC0-9239-45-F56-C67-D7-D5.png

Just to clarify for the record, that 0Z EPS member in the FL Straits at hour 300, along with 3 other members, is actually from TD 18 rather than from the wave still inside Africa. However, one member from the wave still inside Africa does move up the FL east coast later (hours 348-360).
Regardless, that doesn’t mean that ultimately the wave inside Africa won’t end up being the bigger threat as it is way too early and too complex a setup in the ATL basin to know.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET is a little further north than prior 2 runs late in the run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.7N 15.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 72 11.3N 16.5W 1005 29
0000UTC 11.09.2020 84 11.6N 19.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 11.09.2020 96 12.0N 21.8W 992 44
0000UTC 12.09.2020 108 13.0N 24.3W 990 47
1200UTC 12.09.2020 120 14.2N 27.4W 987 49
0000UTC 13.09.2020 132 15.3N 30.5W 983 53
1200UTC 13.09.2020 144 16.4N 33.6W 982 54

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
late Wednesday or Thursday. Gradual development is anticipated once
the system moves over water, and a tropical depression could form
late this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro sends this racing west approaching the Lesser Antilles by hour 192:

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is much weaker and faster with this wave over Africa and approaches the NE Caribbean as just a weak TC already on 9/16:



Edit: By the way, that is "TD 18" moving SW near 26N, 48W!

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro sends this racing west approaching the Lesser Antilles by hour 192:

https://i.postimg.cc/d1F0fT3Q/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh72-192.gif

Yep, that’s the one to watch.