ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cfisher]

[hurricaneCW]

Nice cirrus fanning ongoing in all quadrants, a good indicator of lessening mid-upper level wind shear.

The system is now quite large and much better organized, which means any increase in shear near landfall will have negligible impacts on the storm.

Upwelling may be a slight factor but you generally don't see that unless the storm is stationary or moving below 5mph for an extended period.

I think a major near landfall is becoming more likely.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Been out back for last couple of hours putting things up. Looks like for many along the coast the next 48-72 hours will be very long! Blowing pretty good here in Mobile now. You definitely get that feeling in the air that a tropical system is nearby.

[Stormgodess]

And the latest update I saw has Sally as a Cat2 105mph winds 7am Tues...And still having 105mph winds 7PM Tues? So no expected intensification sitting right off the Gulf Coast for 12 hrs??

Not sure how to do an image

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Satellite/Radar composite.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.ibb.co/zSBgqW1/image.png

Don’t put too much stock into warm spots on IR. Radar will show it first, and then satellite

[cfisher]

https://i.ibb.co/zSBgqW1/image.png

Don’t put too much stock into warm spots on IR. Radar will show it first, and then satellite

Understandably, though it seems like it would want to expand out some for sure?

[bohai]

65 mph to 85 mph in under 2 hours. Holy ****. I think a major is not out of the question once Sally’s core-building is complete.

Here is a Dauphin Island Webcam. https://dauphin-island-south.click2stream.com/

[Stormcenter]

Pretty impressive when you can see the storm
that far out from NWS Radar out of New Orleans.

https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outl ... reserved=0

[InnerarityIsland]

Checking in from Perdido Bay.... our sea wall is already underwater. I’m at the Fl/AL state line.

[TJRE]

SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

Cloud Top Temp Overlay
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[GCANE]

Area of cold-cloud tops is expanding rapidly.
Maybe will be a 1700 -lb shrimp.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.ibb.co/zSBgqW1/image.png

Don’t put too much stock into warm spots on IR. Radar will show it first, and then satellite

Understandably, though it seems like it would want to expand out some for sure?

https://i.ibb.co/0spQ9tH/image.png

I can see why it looks like that, but change to visible and it’s pretty clear that nothing but strong banding is going on in that area. The warm spot is likely to appear just west of the western edge of the yellow. And if trends continue it will be tiny

[ConvergenceZone]

There will also be some upwelling churning cooler water due to slow movement as it nears the coast. How much will this effect the strength?

[EquusStorm]

While certainly highly impressive I don't know why anyone would be especially surprised we're seeing something like this with incredibly favorable background state and a seasonal forecast indicating this sort of storm is quite probable; four landfalling Us hurricanes is pretty much right on track and we have a scarily long time to go in the season. I do hope that RI'ing storms on the northern Gulf Coast don't become the norm though because that's quite scary...

[ConvergenceZone]

And the latest update I saw has Sally as a Cat2 105mph winds 7am Tues...And still having 105mph winds 7PM Tues? So no expected intensification sitting right off the Gulf Coast for 12 hrs??

Not sure how to do an image

Upwelling

[ClarCari]

There will also be some upwelling churning cooler water due to slow movement as it nears the coast. How much will this effect the strength?

As it approaches Cat.2 border Cat.3 it mayyyyy slow down the rate of intensification but at this rate don’t expect any weakening no matter what it’s peak ends up being.

[cfisher]

There will also be some upwelling churning cooler water due to slow movement as it nears the coast. How much will this effect the strength?

It's over a warm eddy, so probably not much until winds increase.

[Dave C]

There will also be some upwelling churning cooler water due to slow movement as it nears the coast. How much will this effect the strength?

If it has a small core maybe not so much.
.

[northjaxpro]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=121350

A good time to.remind the peeps to post all webcams, news station links and other obs in the Hurricane Sally Observations Thread .

I posted the link above.

This makes it much easier to find these things instead in the large 100 + page discussion thread.