ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Nor much wind forecast for Mobile but plenty of rain over the next 2 days +

[tolakram]

saved loop

[CrazyC83]

The AF planes are now taking off from Ellington Field, near Houston, as a backup for Keesler AFB.

[Stormgodess]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/qjySeNY.gif

Is that current? Did I see another jog south?

[tolakram]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/qjySeNY.gif

Is that current? Did I see another jog south?

Current at the time I posted. It's wobbling right now.

[cfisher]

I'm a little bit concerned with what seems to be a large windfield.

[PTPatrick]

Sally is taking a nice WSW jog to get back on track.

Looks more like a cyclonic loop. I don’t really see any overall movement in any direction on radar.

Hwrf and hmon and others have shown some weird Southwest wobbles on approach to the mouth of the ms for a day or so...thinking this is all according to plan.

[Craters]

Isn't this the blob that was moving southwest toward Mexico?

No, that blob is now off the coast of Mexico. I think What GCANE has indicated there is a batch of high CAPE air that's normally in the Gulf, roughly to the SE of Galveston.

Yes, I thought that he was referring to the blob of clouds where the arrows begin.

Ah. Okay -- sorry! My mistake...

[Shell Mound]

Both IR and NEXRAD data indicate that outflow continues to expand westward and a small inner core appears to be forming. Given the decrease in VWS, the inner core looks to consolidate, expand, and deepen rapidly in three to six hours. The CDO itself is clearly growing in size and shows less of a demarcation between intense convection and cirrus, indicating that VWS is steadily decreasing. Once the inner core is fully ensconced, another round of rapid deepening is likely to occur. Overall, these trends collectively suggest that a major hurricane is becoming increasingly likely within the next twelve to eighteen hours. At this point, I would suggest a peak of 120–30 knots just south of the MS/AL border, followed by landfall shortly thereafter. This could be a worst-case scenario for Mobile Bay in terms of extreme, prolonged wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

[BYG Jacob]

Question, what happened to the ULL over Georgia that was imparting shear?

[edu2703]

Looks like the convection is trying to wrap around the center

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Question, what happened to the ULL over Georgia that was imparting shear?

Moved out of the way and weakened as Sally generated convection.

[cfisher]

Eye looks closed.

[tolakram]

Looks like the convection is trying to wrap around the center

https://imgur.com/5ncUZv8

Looks to me like some shear is hitting the SW side of Sally. Convection decreased a bit and on visible you can see mid level cloud tops heading towards the center. Could be nothing, recon will tell the story.

[Nimbus]

Eye looks closed.

Cleared out and warmed in the IR for a couple frames at least.

[aspen]

Looks like the convection is trying to wrap around the center

https://imgur.com/5ncUZv8

If this is during Dmin, I can only imagine how crazy Dmax is going to be.

[KimmieLa]

Sally is taking a nice WSW jog to get back on track.

Looks more like a cyclonic loop. I don’t really see any overall movement in any direction on radar.

Hwrf and hmon and others have shown some weird Southwest wobbles on approach to the mouth of the ms for a day or so...thinking this is all according to plan.

PT, I noticed those yesterday, almost like loops as it came close to landfall. Steve showed the HWRF a few days ago, as a CAT 3 coming close to NOLA. It will be interesting if this pans out (meteorologically speaking).

[PTPatrick]

Both IR and NEXRAD data indicate that outflow continues to expand westward and a small inner core appears to be forming. Given the decrease in VWS, the inner core looks to consolidate, expand, and deepen rapidly in three to six hours. The CDO itself is clearly growing in size and shows less of a demarcation between intense convection and cirrus, indicating that VWS is steadily decreasing. Once the inner core is fully ensconced, another round of rapid deepening is likely to occur. Overall, these trends collectively suggest that a major hurricane is becoming increasingly likely within the next twelve to eighteen hours. At this point, I would suggest a peak of 120–30 knots just south of the MS/AL border, followed by landfall shortly thereafter. This could be a worst-case scenario for Mobile Bay in terms of extreme, prolonged wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

That’s what I am afraid of. Confident moms home On the bayou (I joke she is the farthest southeast in the state of Mississippi, probably not quite, but close?) will hold up to wind, but George’s put 5 Ft surge under it (it’s on pilings) and Katrina put a foot in it. if the cat 2/3 parked offshore piling water into the bayou comes to pass for 48 hrs that will be tough on her house to be sitting in water that long and getting battered. She is protected from wave action by the pines and wetlands tho.

[Odin]

Where is a good radar site. First time poster. Sorry if this is the wrong place on the board to ask.

[HurryKane]

Both IR and NEXRAD data indicate that outflow continues to expand westward and a small inner core appears to be forming. Given the decrease in VWS, the inner core looks to consolidate, expand, and deepen rapidly in three to six hours. The CDO itself is clearly growing in size and shows less of a demarcation between intense convection and cirrus, indicating that VWS is steadily decreasing. Once the inner core is fully ensconced, another round of rapid deepening is likely to occur. Overall, these trends collectively suggest that a major hurricane is becoming increasingly likely within the next twelve to eighteen hours. At this point, I would suggest a peak of 120–30 knots just south of the MS/AL border, followed by landfall shortly thereafter. This could be a worst-case scenario for Mobile Bay in terms of extreme, prolonged wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

That’s what I am afraid of. Confident moms home On the bayou (I joke she is the farthest southeast in the state of Mississippi, probably not quite, but close?) will hold up to wind, but George’s put 5 Ft surge under it (it’s on pilings) and Katrina put a foot in it. if the cat 2/3 parked offshore piling water into the bayou comes to pass for 48 hrs that will be tough on her house to be sitting in water that long and getting battered. She is protected from wave action by the pines and wetlands tho.

Have enjoyed your posts for many many years...wishing you and yours all the best.