ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Starting to see early signs of attempts to clear out an eye. Convection firing up to the SW of center.

[cfisher]

This is about to be intense lol

[Aric Dunn]

[Airboy]

It does not move much right now....

[tropicwatch]

https://i.ibb.co/4Rh3YhK/Untitled.png

Not quite to the surface.

[SohCahToa]

Nasty band coming through Mandeville right now. Nice to meet you, Sally.

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.ibb.co/4Rh3YhK/Untitled.png

Not quite to the surface.

174 feet.

well away from the center.. that is pretty telling..

reduction from 174 feet is still like 95+ percent.

[Odin]

Nasty band coming through Mandeville right now. Nice to meet you, Sally.

That one wasn't too bad.

[SohCahToa]

Nasty band coming through Mandeville right now. Nice to meet you, Sally.

That one wasn't too bad.

Didn’t last long. Hoping that’s all the introductions we get of her

[DestinHurricane]

Sally appears to be completely stationary for the past hour or 2 on radar. I am not seeing any movement at all.

[cheezyWXguy]

New burst directly over the eye. This will be interesting.

[3090]

The latest EURO 12Zrun is just frightening for Mobile,.AL and Pensacola. Possible storm surge up to 6 feet in Mobile Bay at time of landfall, which may not occur until during Wednesday with EURO showing a stall offthe MS/AL Coast possible on tomorrow which is going to.cause torrential rainfall across the Northern Gulf Coast.

Are models really all that useful at this point? Just curious. To me it is just now watching.

Not really. The key is in the details, and the details are too unpredictable for the models to capture with enough confidence to make them useful (like HWRF might nail the landfall location and windspeed in the 18z run, but if the Euro, GFS and others are somewhat different then you cant confidently say which is right until its all over). I would say - trust the NHC, they usually do a better job of getting the details right than the models this close in.

That is exactly what I have come to know over the years but wanted to hear if others may have understood the same.

[Ian2401]

just got our first bit of rain from the extreme outer band of sally here in Tallahassee. very heavy rain and a bit breezy. nothing too bad

[bella_may]

Looks like it might have weakened slightly according to recon. Doesn’t appear it’ll last long however

[PTPatrick]

Both IR and NEXRAD data indicate that outflow continues to expand westward and a small inner core appears to be forming. Given the decrease in VWS, the inner core looks to consolidate, expand, and deepen rapidly in three to six hours. The CDO itself is clearly growing in size and shows less of a demarcation between intense convection and cirrus, indicating that VWS is steadily decreasing. Once the inner core is fully ensconced, another round of rapid deepening is likely to occur. Overall, these trends collectively suggest that a major hurricane is becoming increasingly likely within the next twelve to eighteen hours. At this point, I would suggest a peak of 120–30 knots just south of the MS/AL border, followed by landfall shortly thereafter. This could be a worst-case scenario for Mobile Bay in terms of extreme, prolonged wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.

That’s what I am afraid of. Confident moms home On the bayou (I joke she is the farthest southeast in the state of Mississippi, probably not quite, but close?) will hold up to wind, but George’s put 5 Ft surge under it (it’s on pilings) and Katrina put a foot in it. if the cat 2/3 parked offshore piling water into the bayou comes to pass for 48 hrs that will be tough on her house to be sitting in water that long and getting battered. She is protected from wave action by the pines and wetlands tho.

There is going to be fresh water flooding along with the surge in most of those areas. The SLOSH model works a little differently for slow moving storms since theoretically you don't have as much ramping from the initial approach but may have more cumulative effect if the water is trapped such as the case would be with a big influx of surge near Irish Bayou and the storm parked near the delta.

Don't be afraid to evacuate no one is going to call you chicken with all the uncertainty.

Oh they did. I don’t live there now. I coordinate hurricane comms for the family from Colorado. Mom evacuated this morning.

[bella_may]

Looks like it might have weakened slightly according to recon. Doesn’t appear it’ll last long however

[3090]

Starting to see early signs of attempts to clear out an eye. Convection firing up to the SW of center.

https://i.imgur.com/5mVUh1e.gif

Looked better earlier.

[Stormgodess]

Nasty band coming through Mandeville right now. Nice to meet you, Sally.

Stay Safe Neighbor!! Near Hammond here

[HeeBGBz]

The wind is picking up in Biloxi. No rain yet.

Looking at Sally, it seems like there's no easing into this storm. Looks like goes 0 to 60 as soon as you encounter it.

Has people in Biloxi completed their preps, looks like it is going to be a tough time.

I have. I haven't seen too much buying. The stores are all stocked. Most people know a storm is coming but I don't know if they know it could be a major.

[Stormgodess]

Nasty band coming through Mandeville right now. Nice to meet you, Sally.

Stay Safe Neighbor!! Near Hammond here