ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/gblack22wx/status/1305536327354646529

[Nimbus]

That’s what I am afraid of. Confident moms home On the bayou (I joke she is the farthest southeast in the state of Mississippi, probably not quite, but close?) will hold up to wind, but George’s put 5 Ft surge under it (it’s on pilings) and Katrina put a foot in it. if the cat 2/3 parked offshore piling water into the bayou comes to pass for 48 hrs that will be tough on her house to be sitting in water that long and getting battered. She is protected from wave action by the pines and wetlands tho.

There is going to be fresh water flooding along with the surge in most of those areas. The SLOSH model works a little differently for slow moving storms since theoretically you don't have as much ramping from the initial approach but may have more cumulative effect if the water is trapped such as the case would be with a big influx of surge near Irish Bayou and the storm parked near the delta.

Don't be afraid to evacuate no one is going to call you chicken with all the uncertainty.

I can only speak for NW FL, but the Navarre area, which has grown since the last major strikes (15 years now), is very susceptible to FW flooding

You have the geography of Rosa island feeding Sherman inlet with surge there and as you say the FW flooding gets
trapped if the bay level is higher. I would look at past storm for guidance for a local situation..

[SohCahToa]

Nasty band coming through Mandeville right now. Nice to meet you, Sally.

Stay Safe Neighbor!! Near Hammond here

You as well. We are stocked up and ready to go here. Hoping she stays away though. Still gut wrenching to watch because SOMEONE is going to feel her.

[GCANE]

Lightning firing back up close to the eye.

[cfisher]

Fireworks when it closes

[xironman]

A pair of massive mesos now rotating around.

[cheezyWXguy]

I am thinking Sally won't hold onto the pinhole eye for long. It doesn't look all that stable, and its looping motion reminds me of an ERC. I think we might see an eyewall melding process as the core expands, and I think this is what the HWRF is alluding to over the next few hours.

[GCANE]

New tower with lightning spewing some serious cirrus.

[Nimbus]

Lightning firing back up close to the eye.

Two strikes and then boom burst of convection.
I'll wait for recon since people are looking for more than speculation for the stall..

[Stormgodess]

Nasty band coming through Mandeville right now. Nice to meet you, Sally.

Stay Safe Neighbor!! Near Hammond here

You as well. We are stocked up and ready to go here. Hoping she stays away though. Still gut wrenching to watch because SOMEONE is going to feel her.

I know its heart breaking to think about. We stay stocked up, and looks like if it takes forecast track, we are ok. But in a mobile home, in an area that flooded during Isaac and 2016... So not letting my guard down until it actually turns.

[Airboy]

AF recon has arrived and coming in to the center from SW.

[p1nheadlarry]

A pair of massive mesos now rotating around.

Is that from DuPage? They're not huge fans of labels/cbars

[cfisher]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1305600175294087173

[xironman]

A pair of massive mesos now rotating around.

Is that from DuPage? They're not huge fans of labels/cbars

Yes

[Dean4Storms]

Looks on radar like it has stalled with maybe a slight drift to the NW.

[ConvergenceZone]

https://twitter.com/gblack22wx/status/1305536327354646529?s=21

That tweet was from earlier this morning

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1305602966146162688

[KWT]

Those rotating hot towers are areas give away of rapid strengthening. Had the same with Laura and Michael.

Is upwelling going to possibly put a brake on its upper strengthening? Especially once in the shallow waters.

A fair chance this is already a 2 as well...

[xironman]

The oil platform 500ft in the air now has gusts to 102kt

24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 86.1 kts
24-hour plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 102.0 kts
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
24-hour plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
24-hour plot - Visibility Visibility (VIS): 0.2 nmi

[Airboy]

Don't think we have seen this strong winds SW of the center before?
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 67 kts (77.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 31 kts (35.7 mph)