ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Those rotating hot towers are areas give away of rapid strengthening. Had the same with Laura and Michael.

Is upwelling going to possibly put a brake on its upper strengthening? Especially once in the shallow waters.

A fair chance this is already a 2 as well...

Usually system that sit in the same place maintain of slowly weaken. I’d be surprised if it completely stopped and continued intensifying, but I’ve some crazy things before...

[cfisher]

If it stalls long enough there could be some upwelling, but it's over a warm eddy right now. And even the shelf contains high OHC

[3090]

On radar I see an eye clearing out.

[Buck]

Those rotating hot towers are areas give away of rapid strengthening. Had the same with Laura and Michael.

Is upwelling going to possibly put a brake on its upper strengthening? Especially once in the shallow waters.

A fair chance this is already a 2 as well...

Upwelling is going to take probably longer than she will have above water.

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 986.6 mb in the center from AF recon.

988mb from the dropsonde.

[Blow_Hard]

Evidently they are going to extend the Hurricane Warnings eastward to NW FL according to TWC along with Eastward Track changes.

[HeeBGBz]

Starting to see early signs of attempts to clear out an eye. Convection firing up to the SW of center.

https://i.imgur.com/5mVUh1e.gif

According that image, I am in the red and black and you'd think it would be doing something. Nothing yet. Just some winds come through earlier.

[cainjamin]

Looking like a banding eye is about to pop on visual. You can also see that tongue of dry air under the cirrus canopy to the east of the core - I wouldn't be surprised if this is what's helping to slow the intensification over the last couple of hours. Hopefully that's a trend that will continue, but if Sally closes off its eyewall, strengthening could likely resume.

[Raebie]

Now a Cat 2.

[wx98]

Evidently they are going to extend the Hurricane Warnings eastward to NW FL according to TWC along with Eastward Track changes.

if the weather channel had their way there would be warnings from Houston to Key West... their cone is usually 40% larger than the NHC... to aatract more viewers. The Weather Channel... For entertainment purposes only.

They use the same cone. Don’t come in here with that.

[northjaxpro]

Now a Cat 2.

Yes it is.

[ClarCari]

Evidently they are going to extend the Hurricane Warnings eastward to NW FL according to TWC along with Eastward Track changes.

if the weather channel had their way there would be warnings from Houston to Key West... their cone is usually 40% larger than the NHC... to aatract more viewers. The Weather Channel... For entertainment purposes only.

LOL to be fair besides the whole “CovidCane” Isaias ordeal TWC Hurricane Coverage has been pretty solid this year. I will forever blame the upper execs, and the NBC buyout for the dumb decisions they’ve made over the years. Most of the meteorologists on there however are pretty top-notch and only look foolish when the execs throw dumb $#/t their way.

[wx98]

Now a Cat 2.

4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 14
Location: 28.8°N 87.4°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[galaxy401]

New NHC forecast has it very close to major hurricane as it makes landfall...

[us89]

INIT 14/2100Z 28.8N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 29.2N 88.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 29.7N 88.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 30.4N 88.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1800Z 31.3N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0600Z 32.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 32.9N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Nimbus]

Now a Cat 2.

Based on winds in the NE quadrant and she looks about stationary since the start of mission #7.
They have increased the resolution of the recon flight map.

[edu2703]

New NHC forecast has it very close to major hurricane as it makes landfall...

I believe she has a decent chance of reaching Cat 3.

[Airboy]

At bit strange they rise it to 100 MPH when the recon shows a bit weaker winds than before?

[Craters]

Convection is definitely attempting to wrap around the CoC instead of being one giant uniform blob.
https://i.imgur.com/hZKE5DX.jpg

That looks disturbingly like a psychedelic mushroom cloud...

[TJRE]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/? ... 00-usa-rad


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
radar helps