ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

That tower NE of the core is damn nasty.
Anything like that gets onshore and it'll be hell.

[cfisher]

Looks like another pinhole eye trying to clear out

[edu2703]

18z HWRF shows Sally developing a fully closed eyewall between 12-15 hours from now.

[wxman57]

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

[aspen]

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process.

I think an EWRC is going to happen. These pinholes usually don’t last long, and it’s not even a complete eyewall anyways. Odds are it just breaks down and lets a new one take over.

[Dean4Storms]

This stall is much further east than guidance suggested all day.

[cfisher]

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

Eh, when it closes off it'll hog a lot of the momentum from that outer band. I wouldn't expect one anytime soon.

[DestinHurricane]

This stall is much further east than guidance suggested all day.

Indeed it is. I think this will be a lot of nowcasting to see where it is going and that largely depends on stall.

[cfisher]

This could be an epic NE pass.

[Dean4Storms]

Winds picking up here in Destin area.

[galaxy401]

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

Do you think it will still be a hurricane at landfall then?

[toad strangler]

Alabama landfalls are such a tough (small) target to hit!

[tropicwatch]

Waves starting to splash over Dauphin Island bridge.

[ConvergenceZone]

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

Wow. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Wxman so Bearish on a storm before. I hope he’s right!!!!

I know that he predicts 75 to 85mph at landfall. I hope he’s right about that as well...

[ElectricStorm]

:froze:

Recon indicates winds may be 70 kts, possibly 75 kts, though recon found only 73 kts with 61 kt FL wind. Don't see any evidence of 85 kts. Eye 6nm across - watch for ERC tonight with weakening during the process. Upwelling of cooler water along with increasing wind shear could cause weakening at landfall. Note that consensus model is now into Alabama coast in western Mobile Bay.

Wow. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Wxman so Bearish on a storm before. I hope he’s right!!!!

What do you mean? He's always like that lol

[MGC]

This stall is much further east than guidance suggested all day.

Indeed it is. I think this will be a lot of nowcasting to see where it is going and that largely depends on stall.

Sally has been misbehaving all day. It could be a temporary stall or as far west it will get. Models insist it will proceed westward who know what Mother Nature will do. Waiting on the 7pm update......MGC

[tropicwatch]

Pretty much stationary. HH just went through again and Sally has moved maybe a wopping two miles in the past hour and a half.

[ClarCari]

Could an ERWC or something of the sort cause a system to slow?

[Steve]

Maybe temporary before DMAX jolt later, but it looks to be improving on IR.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[shiny-pebble]

The eyewall seems to have disappeared on radar. Not really sure what it wants to do lol

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