ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Craters]

Read the 10pm discussion. Sally hasn’t really
been behaving and following her track.

Serious question..Why is Metropolitan New Orleans, a City of 1.4 million people metro and almost 3 million within 50 miles of the Central Business District under a Hurricane Warning and we aren’t even in the cone? I just got home after running several errands and there are literally thousands of cars parked on the neutral ground waiting for a storm and flash floods. It’s ridiculous and is confusing to the general public. Is this proper forecasting? I doubt we will have hardly any rain. Maybe breezy..why? It’s not happening here, thank God! How about telling the people here waiting and concerned about a storm. They know we are under a hurricane warning. Why are we? Let’s get it together. Keep it real.

I hear ya...we aren’t in the cone. What is the NHC trying to tell us?

"The cone" includes of 67% of the historical errors* in storm-track predictions. That means that 33% of the rest of the tracks were outside that cone -- that is, 16.5% were outside either side of it. The way that Sally has been behaving (and I use that term loosely), I wouldn't want to test a 1-in-6 chance.

*Over the last five years, I believe

[Sean in New Orleans]

Read the 10pm discussion. Sally hasn’t really
been behaving and following her track.

I hear ya...we aren’t in the cone. What is the NHC trying to tell us?

The steering currents are VERY weak and it’s drifting westward, I think they are paying it safe until they actually see I north or northeast movement.

I get it..we’re not in the cone. It’s inconsistent and a large population is hunkered down and we aren’t even in the cone. It is what it is..I’ve never seen a large population area under a hurricane warning and not in the cone. Basically the NHC is saying it isn’t coming here..great! Why the warning?

[eastcoastFL]

I hear ya...we aren’t in the cone. What is the NHC trying to tell us?

The steering currents are VERY weak and it’s drifting westward, I think they are paying it safe until they actually see I north or northeast movement.

I get it..we’re not in the cone. It’s inconsistent and a large population is hunkered down and we aren’t even in the cone. It is what it is..I’ve never seen a large population area under a hurricane warning and not in the cone. Basically the NHC is saying it isn’t coming here..great! Why the warning?

Read the last discussion from the NHC. The storm has barely moved today. The models have shifted east but they have been almost useless this season. They expect steering to collapse once it finally reaches the edge of the ridge and wait for a trough to pick it up. A ton of variables in a tight space. You could easily be right back in the line of fire tomorrow if the steering collapses and it drifts further west before turning north.

I think they have made the right call leaving you under a warning. Whats the point of removing the warning if they may have to put you right back into one tomorrow. Removing the warning would signal an all clear and its not all clear.

[cheezyWXguy]

I hear ya...we aren’t in the cone. What is the NHC trying to tell us?

The steering currents are VERY weak and it’s drifting westward, I think they are paying it safe until they actually see I north or northeast movement.

I get it..we’re not in the cone. It’s inconsistent and a large population is hunkered down and we aren’t even in the cone. It is what it is..I’ve never seen a large population area under a hurricane warning and not in the cone. Basically the NHC is saying it isn’t coming here..great! Why the warning?

He answered it in the post you replied to. Uncertainty. It’s already not behaving as modeled or forecasted and steering currents are weak

[tiger_deF]

I can't believe anybody is pooping all over the nhc for doing their best with this complicated situation where landfall at any point in the cone has not been entirely ruled out yet.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The steering currents are VERY weak and it’s drifting westward, I think they are paying it safe until they actually see I north or northeast movement.

I get it..we’re not in the cone. It’s inconsistent and a large population is hunkered down and we aren’t even in the cone. It is what it is..I’ve never seen a large population area under a hurricane warning and not in the cone. Basically the NHC is saying it isn’t coming here..great! Why the warning?

He answered it in the post you replied to. Uncertainty. It’s already not behaving as modeled or forecasted and steering currents are weak

My last post on the matter...then shouldn’t New Orleans still be in the cone of error? Many people are not as savvy with storms as we are on this site are very worried..some are freaking out because we are under a Hurricane Warning. The warning says conditions are pretty eminent. The cone narrows it down. Perhaps they are saying to the public still expect hurricane conditions even if you aren’t in the cone of errors. No -removed- here. I don’t want it. Drop the warning and leave us alone..let us resume our normal life.

[ConvergenceZone]

A bit off topic since this forum is so slow tonight:
It was asked about how people often get excited when storms are rapidly developing and tend to vanish when they aren't. The closest analogy I can use is Tornado Chasing. I use to do some amateur tornado chasing when I l lived in Eastern Colorado.
If you've ever seen the movie Twister, it's not far from the truth with the rush that you feel when a tornado is on the ground.... When you go out in the field chasing, you are hoping to see tornado's develop and touch down. At the same time, you just hope they don't cross into any populated areas. But regardless, you go out hoping to see the funnel drop down and develop to a tornado on the ground and feel disappointed if you drive home and don''t see that. I find that very similar to watching hurricanes develop. One loves to watch them develop offshore. It's an adrenaline rush to watch the magic of mother nature. At the same time, you hope that if it does hit land that it will go into the less populated areas, OR the best case scenario, weaken rapidly right before landfall. Anyway that's best analogy I can give from a severe weather nut like myself.

[bayoubebe]

Serious question..Why is Metropolitan New Orleans, a City of 1.4 million people metro and almost 3 million within 50 miles of the Central Business District under a Hurricane Warning and we aren’t even in the cone? I just got home after running several errands and there are literally thousands of cars parked on the neutral ground waiting for a storm and flash floods. It’s ridiculous and is confusing to the general public. Is this proper forecasting? I doubt we will have hardly any rain. Maybe breezy..why? It’s not happening here, thank God! How about telling the people here waiting and concerned about a storm. They know we are under a hurricane warning. Why are we? Let’s get it together. Keep it real.

Tell me
About it! I’m
North of
NOLA and we had Mandatory Evacuation orders. Why?
They missed the forecast track again! Second time schools have shut down prematurely on a weird CoVId schedule already. What concerns me is people may not take the warnings seriously now when they really need to. No lectures about better to be safe. Yes, I know. Still frustrating.

Have to take it seriously always, but, if we aren’t even in the cone drop the Hurricane Warning..unless they think we will have hurricane conditions. That would be odd..we’re on the Western side.

I still have the Hurricane warning also,and have not been in the cone all day.It is better to be safe...

[cheezyWXguy]

I get it..we’re not in the cone. It’s inconsistent and a large population is hunkered down and we aren’t even in the cone. It is what it is..I’ve never seen a large population area under a hurricane warning and not in the cone. Basically the NHC is saying it isn’t coming here..great! Why the warning?

He answered it in the post you replied to. Uncertainty. It’s already not behaving as modeled or forecasted and steering currents are weak

My last post on the matter...then shouldn’t New Orleans still be in the cone of error? Many people are not as savvy with storms as we are on this site are very worried..some are freaking out because we are under a Hurricane Warning. The warning says conditions are pretty eminent. The cone narrows it down. Perhaps they are saying to the public still expect hurricane conditions even if you aren’t in the cone of errors. No -removed- here. I don’t want it. Drop the warning and leave us alone..let us resume our normal life.

As has been stated numerous times on this board, the cone represents historical margin of error. It doesn’t represent current uncertainty. We’re all in agreement that it should, but it doesn’t. The NHC has valid reasoning to keep you under a warning but you seem to be ignoring the reasoning several posters here have given

[AtlanticWind]

I get it..we’re not in the cone. It’s inconsistent and a large population is hunkered down and we aren’t even in the cone. It is what it is..I’ve never seen a large population area under a hurricane warning and not in the cone. Basically the NHC is saying it isn’t coming here..great! Why the warning?

He answered it in the post you replied to. Uncertainty. It’s already not behaving as modeled or forecasted and steering currents are weak

My last post on the matter...then shouldn’t New Orleans still be in the cone of error? Many people are not as savvy with storms as we are on this site are very worried..some are freaking out because we are under a Hurricane Warning. The warning says conditions are pretty eminent. The cone narrows it down. Perhaps they are saying to the public still expect hurricane conditions even if you aren’t in the cone of errors. No -removed- here. I don’t want it. Drop the warning and leave us alone..let us resume our normal life.

The cone is where the center of the hurricane will likely end up,The NHC is always very clear that effects can be felt
outside the cone.

[869MB]

URNT12 KNHC 150255
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL192020
A. 15/02:31:40Z
B. 28.78 deg N 087.67 deg W
C. 700 mb 2985 m
D. 988 mb
E. NA
F. OPEN S
G. C20
H. 62 kt
I. 358 deg 34 nm 02:21:30Z
J. 090 deg 60 kt
K. 358 deg 36 nm 02:21:00Z
L. 52 kt
M. 270 deg 22 nm 02:42:30Z
N. 002 deg 56 kt
O. 269 deg 34 nm 02:46:00Z
P. 10 C / 3048 m
Q. 15 C / 3041 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF305 0819A SALLY OB 41
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 311 / 57 NM 00:47:30Z


Here we go again, like last night, according to this VDM, Sally may be back to a five degree temperature difference between the inner and outer eyewall. Strengthening maybe around the corner again if she can maintain or increase this temperature differential - of course like last night, all else being equal.

[bayoubebe]

Where’s the delete?

[Sean in New Orleans]

He answered it in the post you replied to. Uncertainty. It’s already not behaving as modeled or forecasted and steering currents are weak

My last post on the matter...then shouldn’t New Orleans still be in the cone of error? Many people are not as savvy with storms as we are on this site are very worried..some are freaking out because we are under a Hurricane Warning. The warning says conditions are pretty eminent. The cone narrows it down. Perhaps they are saying to the public still expect hurricane conditions even if you aren’t in the cone of errors. No -removed- here. I don’t want it. Drop the warning and leave us alone..let us resume our normal life.

As has been stated numerous times on this board, the cone represents historical margin of error. It doesn’t represent current uncertainty. We’re all in agreement that it should, but it doesn’t. The NHC has valid reasoning to keep you under a warning but you seem to be ignoring the reasoning several posters here have given

I know a lot more than you suspect. I’m slightly playing naive. So basically, the NHC is telling everyone in Metropolitan New Orleans that hurricane conditions are “expected” in our area within 36 hours. So we should “expect” hurricane conditions by tomorrow evening. I’m being technical, but, your dealing with over a couple of million people sitting at home “expecting” hurricane conditions by tomorrow night. I’ve told quite a few people that we are really looking good...they are ready for the full brunt. That’s wrong. They are laymen. They don’t know.

[cheezyWXguy]

My last post on the matter...then shouldn’t New Orleans still be in the cone of error? Many people are not as savvy with storms as we are on this site are very worried..some are freaking out because we are under a Hurricane Warning. The warning says conditions are pretty eminent. The cone narrows it down. Perhaps they are saying to the public still expect hurricane conditions even if you aren’t in the cone of errors. No -removed- here. I don’t want it. Drop the warning and leave us alone..let us resume our normal life.

As has been stated numerous times on this board, the cone represents historical margin of error. It doesn’t represent current uncertainty. We’re all in agreement that it should, but it doesn’t. The NHC has valid reasoning to keep you under a warning but you seem to be ignoring the reasoning several posters here have given

I know a lot more than you suspect. I’m slightly playing naive. So basically, the NHC is telling everyone in Metropolitan New Orleans that hurricane conditions are “expected” in our area within 36 hours. So we should “expect” hurricane conditions by tomorrow evening. I’m being technical, but, your dealing with over a couple of million people sitting at home “expecting” hurricane conditions by tomorrow night. I’ve told quite a few people that we are really looking good...they are ready for the full brunt. That’s wrong. They are laymen. They don’t know.

Wouldn’t you rather people prepare for an event that has a real chance of occurring, even if it doesn’t happen, than have people not prepare and get caught by surprise? How many laymen do you think will prepare if they say “prepare, but it probably won’t happen”?

[bvigal]

He answered it in the post you replied to. Uncertainty. It’s already not behaving as modeled or forecasted and steering currents are weak

My last post on the matter...then shouldn’t New Orleans still be in the cone of error? Many people are not as savvy with storms as we are on this site are very worried..some are freaking out because we are under a Hurricane Warning. The warning says conditions are pretty eminent. The cone narrows it down. Perhaps they are saying to the public still expect hurricane conditions even if you aren’t in the cone of errors. No -removed- here. I don’t want it. Drop the warning and leave us alone..let us resume our normal life.

The cone is where the center of the hurricane will likely end up,The NHC is always very clear that effects can be felt
outside the cone.

"The cone is where the center of the hurricane will likely end up,The NHC is always very clear that effects can be felt outside the cone." This is the ANSWER to the question. The cone is area where CENTER of storm may go. The hurricane force winds extend outward from there, justifying Hurricane Warning for possibility of hurricane-force winds. It may only be a 40-60% chance of those winds in NOLA, but worth warning people to prepare.

[NotoSans]

The “cone” is based on historical error and does not represent case-by-case forecast uncertainty. NHC should have scrapped it and switched to a cone determined by ensemble spread. But for the time being, just remember the cone does not accurately represent uncertainty.

Even if the cone accurately represents uncertainty, it does not mean impact cannot be felt outside the cone. The cone is based on forecast center position, but a hurricane is not a dot and hurricane-force winds can extend significantly outward from the center.

Mathematically speaking, area covered by hurricane warnings should always be outside the cone, because it should be track uncertainty + forecast hurricane-force wind radii.

[stormhunter7]

May be my eyes messing with me... But in last 15-20 minutes on 1 minute imagery I think I see what could be an eye developing in the deep convection. Clearly see some type of spin, where recon just tagged center. The ring is small, with cold tops around the small spin. Guess will see in the coming hour or so. 1 minute imagery is pretty remarkable!

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I do think the NHC will adjust downward the intensities in the ultimate best track. I'd personally have had it at 70 kt at 1200Z, 80 kt (peak) at 1800Z and 70 kt at 0000Z and now. That's just my opinion though.

[bayoubebe]

My last post on the matter...then shouldn’t New Orleans still be in the cone of error? Many people are not as savvy with storms as we are on this site are very worried..some are freaking out because we are under a Hurricane Warning. The warning says conditions are pretty eminent. The cone narrows it down. Perhaps they are saying to the public still expect hurricane conditions even if you aren’t in the cone of errors. No -removed- here. I don’t want it. Drop the warning and leave us alone..let us resume our normal life.

As has been stated numerous times on this board, the cone represents historical margin of error. It doesn’t represent current uncertainty. We’re all in agreement that it should, but it doesn’t. The NHC has valid reasoning to keep you under a warning but you seem to be ignoring the reasoning several posters here have given

I know a lot more than you suspect. I’m slightly playing naive. So basically, the NHC is telling everyone in Metropolitan New Orleans that hurricane conditions are “expected” in our area within 36 hours. So we should “expect” hurricane conditions by tomorrow evening. I’m being technical, but, your dealing with over a couple of million people sitting at home “expecting” hurricane conditions by tomorrow night. I’ve told quite a few people that we are really looking good...they are ready for the full brunt. That’s wrong. They are laymen. They don’t know.

I’m one of those laywomen and admittedly naive, so this quote along with a Hurricane warning is why it can be confusing to the average person.” Author: Osama Ayyad, Doug Mouton / WWL-TV Sports Director
Published: 10:44 PM CDT September 14, 2020
NEW ORLEANS — The meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in New Orleans said on Twitter: "Southeast Louisiana will see minor effects from Hurricane Sally, but we dodged the bullet... again."

[cheezyWXguy]

I think upwelling is getting to sally. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically, and it’s structure on radar is pretty lackluster. Unless we see another burst like we saw this morning, I think the intensity forecast will be nudged down