2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

Are you saying the season is over after September ?

Not to much left of this capeverde season. We shall see if anything tries to get going in the Caribbean In October but I would not hold my breath.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1305483780233351169?

For the far eastern Atlantic, it usually winds down this time of year. The season itself is far from over.

[Loveweather12]

I understand. He said Caribbean and being surprised that if anything forms. I was just asking because I know most storms in October form in Caribbean

Are you saying the season is over after September ?

Not to much left of this capeverde season. We shall see if anything tries to get going in the Caribbean In October but I would not hold my breath.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1305483780233351169?

For the far eastern Atlantic, it usually winds down this time of year. The season itself is far from over.

[northjaxpro]

A bigger concern to me than any current AEW, a potential follow-up to Sally "ridge over troubled water" homegrown next week similar to this, made more of a concern because of La Nina:

https://i.imgur.com/NeTjcIk.png

GFS develops this feature along a stalled out frontal boundary and keeps this feature basically stalled and meanders. just off the Southeast U.S. Coast for a week. Big Blocking High to the North and Northeast keeps it pinned down in that area thru Sept.26 on this morning's 06Z GFS run.

It will initially be baroclinic should it develop, and the 06Z GFS run intensifies it to a 1003 mb cyclone, which probably would over time attain tropical characteristics.

We will see how this plays out potentially.

[SouthFLTropics]

I understand. He said Caribbean and being surprised that if anything forms. I was just asking because I know most storms in October form in Caribbean

Are you saying the season is over after September ?

For the far eastern Atlantic, it usually winds down this time of year. The season itself is far from over.

Based on the pattern we've been seeing I would have to agree that the CV season is going to wind down. I can't imagine it can pump out anymore than it has. I mean it even managed to get Vicky named (that escalated quickly). Now our eyes turn more towards the Western Caribbean. I'll be watching the models closely to see if they start to set up a CAG down there as we head into early October. For us folks in Florida, this is the time of year that can be most dangerous to us. Something spins up in the Western Caribbean and then a trough sweeps in and brings it up and over us like Wilma did in 2005.

[Nuno]

Its still September 14, not October 14. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a couple more CV storms pumped out in the next week at this rate.

If anything it just seems like the CV season was merely delayed

[chris_fit]

Just came here to make a quick mention about the Models and how quickly things can change.

As of the 9/11 00Z Model Runs - Not one ensemble member, Euro nor GFS, had anything close to a system in the GoM out there for Today 9/14.

That's a little over 3 days out, and not one of the Major models had a clue here...


Euro:



GFS:

[sma10]

Just came here to make a quick mention about the Models and how quickly things can change.

As of the 9/11 00Z Model Runs - Not one ensemble member, Euro nor GFS, had anything close to a system in the GoM out there for Today 9/14.

That's a little over 3 days out, and not one of the Major models had a clue here...


Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/NAdcMh2.png


GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/i1p0EDu.png

It's the model thread, so discussion will ensue. But your point is excellent: claiming anything about the rest of the season based on current model runs is folly. Not sure how many examples we need this season about model fallibility

[Spacecoast]

Just came here to make a quick mention about the Models and how quickly things can change.

As of the 9/11 00Z Model Runs - Not one ensemble member, Euro nor GFS, had anything close to a system in the GoM out there for Today 9/14.

That's a little over 3 days out, and not one of the Major models had a clue here...


Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/NAdcMh2.png


GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/i1p0EDu.png

Well, there was this 9/09 0z ECMF run that sniffed out Sally fairly early....


It subsequently dropped develoopment, however.

[SFLcane]

Let’s hope nothing pops in the Caribbean and the models miss it.

[aspen]

Meanwhile, the CMC wants Hurricane Wilfred in the MDR and Hurricane Alpha in the SW Gulf.

[StPeteMike]

I’ve seen constant model support for a Azores storm in the next coming days, that might become Wilfred.

[blp]

A bigger concern to me than any current AEW, a potential follow-up to Sally "ridge over troubled water" homegrown next week similar to this, made more of a concern because of La Nina:

https://i.imgur.com/NeTjcIk.png

00z GFS fully onboard. Looks like a piece of Sally get trapped.

[Fancy1001]

The 00z CMC has both Alpha and Beta by the end of the month, and possibly gamma.

[blp]

CMC also showing this. If it gets caught under a strong ridge watch out. This is very dangerous setup.

[blp]

The 00z CMC has both Alpha and Beta by the end of the month, and possibly gamma.

Yeah, I am thinking we are not getting any lull until November. This is incredible. No way the Atlantic can produce so many systems. It's like a video game at this point.

[sma10]

The 00z CMC has both Alpha and Beta by the end of the month, and possibly gamma.

Yeah, I am thinking we are not getting any lull until November. This is incredible. No way the Atlantic can produce so many systems. It's like a video game at this point.

Looks like many opportunities to rack up more names in the next 10 days. The new AEW looks promising; the area near the Azores has a decent chance, as well as the W Gulf. Plus, stirrings of a home grown near the Bahamas. Could easily be at Gamma by middle of next week

[Loveweather12]

Where does this go? East?

CMC also showing this. If it gets caught under a strong ridge watch out. This is very dangerous setup.

https://i.ibb.co/SVwmXHx/gem-z850-vort-seus-fh186-240.gif

[northjaxpro]

The 00z CMC has both Alpha and Beta by the end of the month, and possibly gamma.

Yeah, I am thinking we are not getting any lull until November. This is incredible. No way the Atlantic can produce so many systems. It's like a video game at this point.

Looks like many opportunities to rack up more names in the next 10 days. The new AEW looks promising; the area near the Azores has a decent chance, as well as the W Gulf. Plus, stirrings of a home grown near the Bahamas. Could easily be at Gamma by middle of next week

Yep. Several other opprtunities to see tropical cyclones develop in the next 10 days. Plus, a Huge 1040 High Pressure will set up across New England, which will set up potentially an unbelievable Nor'easter across the Northeast Florida Coast beginning Friday and lasting well into next week, which I am monitoring extremely closely here in the days to come.

[AutoPenalti]

I’ve been gone for the weekend and all of the sudden there’s 5 named systems in the Atlantic...

What in the world...

[aspen]

06z GFS has started to show the Gulf TC that the CMC has been insistent on for the last week. If it, 98L, and 99L all develop, we could hit Beta by next week, and two of those could become hurricanes.