2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[St0rmTh0r]

06z GFS has started to show the Gulf TC that the CMC has been insistent on for the last week. If it, 98L, and 99L all develop, we could hit Beta by next week, and two of those could become hurricanes.

I predicted 15 storms to form in September in the thread it's looking closer to reality than I thought

[sma10]

06z GFS has started to show the Gulf TC that the CMC has been insistent on for the last week. If it, 98L, and 99L all develop, we could hit Beta by next week, and two of those could become hurricanes.

I predicted 15 storms to form in September in the thread it's looking closer to reality than I thought

Certainly 10+ is looking like a lock for September, which is amazing in itself.

A bit longer term, towards the end of Sept, there appears to be a hint of a signal coming out of the Central/Western Caribbean on the GEFS/GFS Para. Something to keep an eye on.

[St0rmTh0r]

06z GFS has started to show the Gulf TC that the CMC has been insistent on for the last week. If it, 98L, and 99L all develop, we could hit Beta by next week, and two of those could become hurricanes.

I predicted 15 storms to form in September in the thread it's looking closer to reality than I thought

Certainly 10+ is looking like a lock for September, which is amazing in itself.

A bit longer term, towards the end of Sept, there appears to be a hint of a signal coming out of the Central/Western Caribbean on the GEFS/GFS Para. Something to keep an eye on.

Just have that feeling October is going to feature some monsters this year.

[SFLcane]

Long range para all ready hinting...

[ElectricStorm]

Long range para all ready hinting...

https://i.postimg.cc/hPp0PFB4/A5-F3-FEC5-8773-4742-A574-C2-D5-FE589441.gif

I don't even want to think about what would happen if a well-organized storm gets in when Western Caribbean in October this year

[St0rmTh0r]

Long range para all ready hinting...

https://i.postimg.cc/hPp0PFB4/A5-F3-FEC5-8773-4742-A574-C2-D5-FE589441.gif

That's just the 1st. October could see a record number of storms this year.

[BigB0882]

06z GFS has started to show the Gulf TC that the CMC has been insistent on for the last week. If it, 98L, and 99L all develop, we could hit Beta by next week, and two of those could become hurricanes.

Where is it showing it in the Gulf and what general direction will it be heading? I know this is all just model watching but I am curious and any images that may have been posted wont load because imgur is blocked at my work. Thanks.

[toad strangler]

Long range para all ready hinting...

https://i.postimg.cc/hPp0PFB4/A5-F3-FEC5-8773-4742-A574-C2-D5-FE589441.gif

That's just the 1st. October could see a record number of storms this year.

Not sure how many storms the Caribbean / Gulf can spit out. It's not like they have a pezz dispenser source for waves like the MDR does.

[aspen]

06z GFS has started to show the Gulf TC that the CMC has been insistent on for the last week. If it, 98L, and 99L all develop, we could hit Beta by next week, and two of those could become hurricanes.

Where is it showing it in the Gulf and what general direction will it be heading? I know this is all just model watching but I am curious and any images that may have been posted wont load because imgur is blocked at my work. Thanks.

It’s from the Gulf AOI. It curls into the BoC, develops, and wanders into the central Gulf before turning west and making landfall in Mexico. Development appears to be in about 3 days and landfall could be as much as another 5 days out.

[PTrackerLA]

Aye carumba!

[aspen]

Aye carumba!

https://imgur.com/X17BE6Y

And the Euro is the last to join the party. The GFS, GFS-Para, CMC, ICON, and HWRF have all jumped on board with development of a TC in the western Gulf today, although the Euro has it develop much later.

[stormlover2013]

euro actually develops it good, steering currents weak but euro shifted north .

[chris_fit]

euro actually develops it good, steering currents weak but euro shifted north .

12Z EPS @ 240 hours.
GoM looks busy.

[SFLcane]

CFS hinting at Caribbean development.

[toad strangler]

CFS hinting at Caribbean development.

That's 35 days out.

[blp]

CFS hinting at Caribbean development.

That's 35 days out.

Yes, but I have been watching CFS the last week and it is has been pretty consistent showing October development potential. Considering how favorable this area will be I think this may not be so much fantasy. We will see once the GFS gets inside that range.

[gfsperpendicular]

That's 35 days out.

When the CFS shows something run-to-run you gotta keep an eye out for it. It showed Isaias well over a month in advance.

[aspen]

CFS hinting at Caribbean development.

That's 35 days out.

Yes, but I have been watching CFS the last week and it is has been pretty consistent showing October development potential. Considering how favorable this area will be I think this may not be so much fantasy. We will see once the GFS gets inside that range.

Didn’t the CFS also sniff out Isaias and this ongoing phase of enhanced activity weeks before they came?

[SFLcane]

Long range GFS onboard with Caribbean development.

[SFLcane]

GFS-P