ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blow_Hard]

Wow....12z ECM right over P'Cola.

Icon was pretty much the same as well

What so concerning about the Euro is how much slower it is. This could be painstaking for folks in Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa and Walton counties...

[Javlin]

I know the official movement is NW but the past three center fixes have been to the northeast and the next one will be even further east.

09/15 ........ 2:00 AM 28.8N 88.0W 90MPH 986mb W at 3 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 2:00 AM Stewart
1609/15...... 5:00 AM 28.9N 88.1W 85MPH 983mb Wnw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 5:02 AM Stewart
16A 09/15...8:00 AM 29.1N 88.0W 85MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 7:47 AM Brown
17 09/15...11:00 AM 29.1N 88.2W 85MPH 983mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 10:47 AM Brown
17A 09/15...2:00 PM 29.2N 88.2W 80MPH 982mb Nw at 2 MPH H1 Sally 09/15 1:44 PM Brown

88.2 is west isnt it?

Yea runs E-W/ R-L you are six clicks to my E I am at 88.9'W Biloxi

[kthmcc7319]

There were posters here yesterday saying that bridges were closed in Walton (1.5 hrs east of Pcola), apparently it spread around quickly.[/quote]

Yes, these are rumors only. Walton County Emergency Management Has addressed this situation. Bridges will not close unless winds reach sustained 40 mph. Up to date information is found on their website or through Facebook or twitter.
https://www.co.walton.fl.us/1063/Emergency-Management

[Jonny]

I don’t know where the rumor originated from. I just posted that they were closing after work claimed so and said to leave. Wasn’t trying to share misinformation (blame whomever spread it), and yes, it is common knowledge that they usually don’t close unless there are sustained winds of 40MPH.

[kthmcc7319]

https://www.co.walton.fl.us/1063/Emergency-Management
Also on Twitter and Facebook

[Florabamaman]

I live in Pace and work in Milton. My employer just texted me and told me I was to report to work tomorrow afternoon. My reply was: "Lol...I'll be standing by for more updates."

[StPeteMike]

I guess sally wants to go visit Marco island first.. Radar showing it heading along the coast to the NW almost NNW.

well right of track if it gets that far north.

Haha that’s why I asked if the slower speed and weaker system would be impacted more by land interaction compared to a stronger system or one moving ~15 mph. My prediction is an AL/FL or just east landfall.

Pretty good prediction and against the models.

[bella_may]

Convection is increasing on the west side now

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Going to step away for a while now. Good luck everyone to our east & stay safe.

[bella_may]

Is recon still out there? Looks like a strengthening storm to me. Nice banding setting up on the west side now

[tropicwatch]

Is recon still out there? Looks like a strengthening storm to me. Nice banding setting up on the west side now

Yes

[ClarCari]

This has to be one of the, if not, the biggest forecasting nightmare of any tropical cyclone. This has the drenching stalled out nature of Harvey and the drunkedness movement of Ophelia 2005. Just plain brutal and annoying.

[Dean4Storms]

Would expect with the ECM and other guidance coming eastward near P'Cola that Hurricane Warnings would come east to Ft Walton Bch or Destin.

[DestinHurricane]

Would expect with the ECM and other guidance coming eastward near P'Cola that Hurricane Warnings would come east to Ft Walton Bch or Destin.

Doubt it dean. They are expecting it to be very weak. We'll see though.

[Jonny]

Just received 2 alerts for volunteer evacuation in Walton county.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Would expect with the ECM and other guidance coming eastward near P'Cola that Hurricane Warnings would come east to Ft Walton Bch or Destin.

Doubt it dean. They are expecting it to be very weak. We'll see though.

Guess last night the feeling I was getting was right . . . East of Mobile. Once we were in center of cone that was all I had to see.

[Mob1]

Recon finding appreciably higher FL winds now.

[FLpanhandle91]

Much stronger in the NE quad this pass.

[wx98]

FL winds have come up significantly on the latest pass in the NE quadrant. SFMR is up as well but the highest values are flagged.

[Blown Away]

Would expect with the ECM and other guidance coming eastward near P'Cola that Hurricane Warnings would come east to Ft Walton Bch or Destin.

Doubt it dean. They are expecting it to be very weak. We'll see though.

Maybe if the E trend continues, but the hurricane winds are not that far from center and your out of cone now