ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

I'd keep it at 70 kt though, since the SFMR is more uncertain in very shallow water (such as the northern Gulf shelf water).

I don't know, posted that link awhile back with that oil rig recording 91mph sustained and gusts over 100mph and SE of the Center.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KVOA&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

[edu2703]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 88.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

[wx98]

7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 15
Location: 29.6°N 88.0°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

[LarryWx]

I'd keep it at 70 kt though, since the SFMR is more uncertain in very shallow water (such as the northern Gulf shelf water).

I don't know, posted that link awhile back with that oil rig recording 91mph sustained and gusts over 100mph and SE of the Center.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KVOA&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

But the oil rig's winds are measured well above the ground.

[ClarCari]

They’re gonna most likely wait to see this strengthening trend continue for a few more hours. Given how much her fluctuation has been. Poor guys must have a headache.

[MetroMike]

Eye has taken a Eastward jog quite a bit off the track according to this radar loop.
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... flanim.gif

[NDG]

7:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 15
Location: 29.6°N 88.0°W
Moving: N at 2 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

Landfall with pressure in the 960s at D-Max is not out of the question at this point, IMO.
Buoy south of Orange Beach still reporting SST of 83 F.

[supercane4867]

Recon data delayed?

[NDG]

Breaking news, 18z Euro changed its mind, it now shows landfall in Gulfshores at 5 AM


Edit: I was looking at the GFS
It actually shows Orange Beach at 8 AM landfall.

[CrazyC83]

The VDM came out with 85 kt FL winds. That supports an intensity of 75-80 kt.

[aspen]

Recon data delayed?

This is an AF mission. Of course it is, as normal.

[Dean4Storms]

I'd keep it at 70 kt though, since the SFMR is more uncertain in very shallow water (such as the northern Gulf shelf water).

I don't know, posted that link awhile back with that oil rig recording 91mph sustained and gusts over 100mph and SE of the Center.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KVOA&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

But the oil rig's winds are measured well above the ground.

It says its elevation is 53ft.

[supercane4867]

Data in the entire eastern eyewall all went missing...lol

[CrazyC83]

I don't know, posted that link awhile back with that oil rig recording 91mph sustained and gusts over 100mph and SE of the Center.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KVOA&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

But the oil rig's winds are measured well above the ground.

It says its elevation is 53ft.

That would support at least 75 kt as well. Possibly 80 kt.

[DestinHurricane]

What is going on with NE eyewall data? It is missing on tt.

[edu2703]

LOL

[LarryWx]

I don't know, posted that link awhile back with that oil rig recording 91mph sustained and gusts over 100mph and SE of the Center.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KVOA&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

But the oil rig's winds are measured well above the ground.

It says its elevation is 53ft.

Thanks. How does 91 mph sustained at 53 feet correlate to official wind measurements? At what elevation are official taken? And is that oil rig measurement reliable?

[aspen]

Sally appears to be starting one last burst of intensification before landfall. Assuming the eyewall isn’t broken, she could very well return to Cat 2 status tonight and bottom out in the mid 960s at this rate.

[supercane4867]

IR says it's ramping up big time.

[Frank P]

Eye has taken a Eastward jog quite a bit off the track according to this radar loop.
https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... flanim.gif

Sure looks due East to me on radar, if it’s a wobble it’s a very pronounced one... well East of the track IMO... maybe she’ll correct herself shortly...