2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

We can always do some model eye candy..

[NevadaFan18]

The CFS has also shown a Caribbean system like that, and the CFS has done well sniffing out systems like Isaias weeks in advance. I guess we better start preparing ourselves for Cat 5 Hurricane Delta or something like that.

There's also a great thread on Twitter detailing how the WCAB could feature some activity as we get into October
https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/ ... 28900?s=20

[HURRICANELONNY]

One of these times the GFS is gonna be right this far out and nobody gonna believe it including me. Get Florida Soon= GFS

[Fancy1001]

There is your South Florida hurricane. ROFL!!

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200918/894881983571b1ab42d395b826e0fd39.jpg


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It needs to be a category five so I can check it off my 2020 bingo card. Technically it doesn't have to be a category five at landfall.

[CourierPR]

One of these times the GFS is gonna be right this far out and nobody gonna believe it including me. Get Florida Soon= GFS

If I see a tweet by Met. Joe Bastardi calling for Caribbean development, then I will take notice. He is very adept at pattern recognition regarding cyclogenesis.

[SootyTern]

We can always do some model eye candy..

https://i.imgur.com/u31RpqN.png

Looks like backside. Will probably be blowing 15 to 20 with partly cloudy skies at my house. Will feel like an idiot for putting up the shutters and pulling all the orchids inside

[SFLcane]

We can always do some model eye candy..

https://i.imgur.com/u31RpqN.png

Looks like backside. Will probably be blowing 15 to 20 with partly cloudy skies at my house. Will feel like an idiot for putting up the shutters and pulling all the orchids inside

Backside? Um nope... How about the northern quadrant of a potential major cane if your in dade and Broward. Obviously for now this is fantasy range

[SootyTern]

We can always do some model eye candy..

https://i.imgur.com/u31RpqN.png

Looks like backside. Will probably be blowing 15 to 20 with partly cloudy skies at my house. Will feel like an idiot for putting up the shutters and pulling all the orchids inside

Backside? Um nope... How about the northern quadrant of a potential major cane if your in dade and Broward. Obviously for now this is fantasy range

I was joking. Because I can, because it is fantasy range

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS drops the long-range Florida hurricane but has a Central American Gyre developing in the first few days of October.

[MarioProtVI]

18z GFS drops the long-range Florida hurricane but has a Central American Gyre developing in the first few days of October.

Signs that early October could be trouble...

[SFLcane]

Gfs-Para...

[TheStormExpert]

If anything were to develop in the next 1-2 weeks down in the Western Caribbean it would likely be drawn north as the NAO will be going negative.

[SETXstorms]

might have us an october storm a-brewing

[DestinHurricane]

If anything were to develop in the next 1-2 weeks down in the Western Caribbean it would likely be drawn north as the NAO will be going negative.

Due north or northeast or would either be possible?

[aspen]

The CMC has sniffed out the next wave to watch. Another low-latitude AEW is set to emerge off of Africa on Monday the 21st and track just about due west, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Sunday the 27th. This might be the wave that spawns the Caribbean hurricane the GFS was showing for a while.

[Blinhart]

What are the potential of systems inside the Caribbean?

[SFLcane]

Some ensembles extreme long range.

[otowntiger]

Some ensembles extreme long range.

https://i.postimg.cc/D0CYv2y3/CB0-F2-F6-F-82-D6-483-F-9-F10-AC1-A6486-B593.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/zfm2X25v/2-A4-BC2-E0-75-ED-4-FF5-9-FBC-924-B591-A5733.jpg

Interesting to note, to me it looks like the synoptic set up in both images would push those systems into Mexico, right? Of course I realize this is well into fantasy land but that’s very opposed to climatology for that area, that time of year. Isn’t the predominant trough pattern usually pulling storms out of the NW Caribbean ENE?

[psyclone]

Some ensembles extreme long range.

https://i.postimg.cc/D0CYv2y3/CB0-F2-F6-F-82-D6-483-F-9-F10-AC1-A6486-B593.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/zfm2X25v/2-A4-BC2-E0-75-ED-4-FF5-9-FBC-924-B591-A5733.jpg

Interesting to note, to me it looks like the synoptic set up in both images would push those systems into Mexico, right? Of course I realize this is well into fantasy land but that’s very opposed to climatology for that area, that time of year. Isn’t the predominant trough pattern usually pulling storms out of the NW Caribbean ENE?

Not necessarily. there are plenty of late season storms that move into central america. Recall Mitch 1998 actually dropped south in October of that year. We are probably going to have some storms...perhaps significant come from this area. A north and northeast trajectory (eventually) is favored...it even happened with Mitch's remnants..but central america/Mexico remain very much at risk. The models starting to ping development should come as no shock considering the calendar and season to date thus far. stuff is going to happen but specifics are a long way off..

[SFLcane]