ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Aircraft found winds supporting 50 kt already. Once the center is fixed I'd expect a Special Advisory.

I Hope that wind shift isn’t a new coc forming

Honestly I think the center has been in there the whole day, but it’s been hard to confirm because the circulation is elongated. Rotating towers have been present on vis since this morning

[curtadams]

From the discussion:

This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast.

Reducing anxiety and heart palpitations on the Gulf Coast? Yep, that's about right.

[ClarCari]

50kts per recon. pretty much what I figured.

I choked when I saw that.

[ElectricStorm]

1001.9 mb

[tailgater]

50kts per recon. pretty much what I figured.

I choked when I saw that.

58 mm/hr* (2.28 in/hr*

[ConvergenceZone]

Aircraft found winds supporting 50 kt already. Once the center is fixed I'd expect a Special Advisory.

Just wondering how can it be that strong with the center displaced so far south of the convection? Unless I read the last map wrong?
Perhaps the actual center is under the convention?

[Aric Dunn]

Also does appear the center is being pulled to the NE or reformirng..

[edu2703]

999.6 mb extrapoled

And a flagged 65 kts SFMR wind

[Nimbus]

Recon found a pretty intact surface pressure profile down to 999mb so this doesn't look like the trough shear is going to win. Got dragged pretty far NE so the ridge may not bring this all the way back to the coast.

[gqhebert]

50kts per recon. pretty much what I figured.

If recon hadn't had issues with lightning earlier this would probably have a different name....

[aspen]

Well, this is going to make forecasts and models more complicated, to say the least. I think we’ll have even less of an idea of where Beta is going than before.

[Aric Dunn]

This reformation is quite a good bit farhter NE than all the models. expect models shift.

[SoupBone]

This reformation is quite a good bit farhter NE than all the models. expect models shift.

Shifts where? Why do you always type posts like the Sopranos final sce.........

[abk_0710]

This reformation is quite a good bit farhter NE than all the models. expect models shift.

What will this do for the future track?

[jaguars_22]

IMO that means Houston and Louisiana. If it’s further NE I’m feeling a little better in port o connor

[davidiowx]

Looks like there is the “other” center. Very interesting

[tropicwatch]

If HH find that Beta is actually moving northeast. I would think we would get a special advisory before 10.

[Aric Dunn]

This reformation is quite a good bit farhter NE than all the models. expect models shift.

What will this do for the future track?

well farther NE might keep it off the coast of texas. later in the forecast it probably wont have too much affect once the trough flattens out.

the UKMET had a NE position compared to the other models.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/FrankCarcaterra/status/1307101411730247682

[DestinHurricane]

This reformation is quite a good bit farhter NE than all the models. expect models shift.

What will this do for the future track?

well farther NE might keep it off the coast of texas. later in the forecast it probably wont have too much affect once the trough flattens out.

the UKMET had a NE position compared to the other models.

Hi Aric. Is the turn NE or ENE putting Florida panhandle or big bend still in play? You mentioned that as a possibility yesterday but models have trended away from that solution today.