ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

What will this do for the future track?

well farther NE might keep it off the coast of texas. later in the forecast it probably wont have too much affect once the trough flattens out.

the UKMET had a NE position compared to the other models.

Hi Aric. Is the turn NE or ENE putting Florida panhandle or big bend still in play? You mentioned that as a possibility yesterday but models have trended away from that solution today.

It is still quite possible. as with all systems it will come down to timing. And in this case the tilt to the trough will be very important.

[jasons2k]

I think the theme for this storm...as Jeff Lindner, the NHC and pretty much every Pro-Met have said all along...is that expect more surprises along the way. And remember it's not uncommon to see a lot of wild swings with the first set of advisories while the center and core get established.

[SoupBone]

I think the theme for this storm...as Jeff Lindner, the NHC and pretty much every Pro-Met have said all along...is that expect more surprises along the way. And remember it's not uncommon to see a lot of wild swings with the first set of advisories while the center and core get established.

I hope this is ok since this thread is still slow and not crazy serious. If no, please delete it.

[Steve]

It’s been drizzly here most of the afternoon with only light breezes. It’s all light rain and I haven’t drank any of it yet, but I’ll get some later. Only Hammy has all the data but this has to be the 4th system west of 90 and 8th or so west of 80. Somebody put some spice in the ocean this year, as there is no stopping low pressure. Maybe this is one of those times where coming up, the center will only follow convection NNE to a point. Hopefully we don’t get anything extreme out of this, but the various model tracks want to indicate that a lot of areas might be affected.

We are going to make a run to Pensacola tomorrow to check on my place. Early reports were that the garages and lower levels didn’t flood, but there was roof damage to our building. That’s on the COA, but I need to make sure I’m not getting leaked in and also we need to clean out the refrigerator. As anyone knows when power is out for a few days and you aren’t there, it gets rank. I only had a half gallon of horizon milk and some sticks of butter besides beer and water. But it needs to be tended to.

[Visioen]

Surface winds a little higher than FL winds, according to recon. (max SFMR 47 kt)

[Visioen]

Trend continues, with max SFMR 48 kt.

[ElectricStorm]

22L BETA 200919 0000 25.1N 92.4W ATL 45 1000

[Shawee]

It’s been drizzly here most of the afternoon with only light breezes. It’s all light rain and I haven’t drank any of it yet, but I’ll get some later. Only Hammy has all the data but this has to be the 4th system west of 90 and 8th or so west of 80. Somebody put some spice in the ocean this year, as there is no stopping low pressure. Maybe this is one of those times where coming up, the center will only follow convection NNE to a point. Hopefully we don’t get anything extreme out of this, but the various model tracks want to indicate that a lot of areas might be affected.

We are going to make a run to Pensacola tomorrow to check on my place. Early reports were that the garages and lower levels didn’t flood, but there was roof damage to our building. That’s on the COA, but I need to make sure I’m not getting leaked in and also we need to clean out the refrigerator. As anyone knows when power is out for a few days and you aren’t there, it gets rank. I only had a half gallon of horizon milk and some sticks of butter besides beer and water. But it needs to be tended to.

I then to agree with the follow the NNE as oppose the current models run earlier. Good luck with you Pensacola run, hopefully the COA is able to to secure the roof before it causes more problems below!

[aspen]

22L BETA 200919 0000 25.1N 92.4W ATL 45 1000

It was revised to 50 kt/1000 mbar.

[Steve]

It’s been drizzly here most of the afternoon with only light breezes. It’s all light rain and I haven’t drank any of it yet, but I’ll get some later. Only Hammy has all the data but this has to be the 4th system west of 90 and 8th or so west of 80. Somebody put some spice in the ocean this year, as there is no stopping low pressure. Maybe this is one of those times where coming up, the center will only follow convection NNE to a point. Hopefully we don’t get anything extreme out of this, but the various model tracks want to indicate that a lot of areas might be affected.

We are going to make a run to Pensacola tomorrow to check on my place. Early reports were that the garages and lower levels didn’t flood, but there was roof damage to our building. That’s on the COA, but I need to make sure I’m not getting leaked in and also we need to clean out the refrigerator. As anyone knows when power is out for a few days and you aren’t there, it gets rank. I only had a half gallon of horizon milk and some sticks of butter besides beer and water. But it needs to be tended to.

I then to agree with the follow the NNE as oppose the current models run earlier. Good luck with you Pensacola run, hopefully the COA is able to to secure the roof before it causes more problems below!

Thanks. If it’s going to happen like that it’s going to have to be quick. Look at that high centered around Wisconsin/northern Lake Michigan. Maybe some energy splits and a center stays south?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv-mid

[SoupBone]

So how would the LLC chasing the convection to the NE affect the models? They all still have the system jumping NE, then back west. So what changes?

[Steve]

So how would the LLC chasing the convection to the NE affect the models? They all still have the system jumping NE, then back west. So what changes?

Look at the flow on that mid WV loop. If it jumps it hits tomorrow night or Sunday on the NGC and continues out along the front. Some energy might , but every model I ran this afternoon runs the main surface low into a block. If it was up at like 27/28N right now, it might have a chance. But it seems unlikely to me.

[Aric Dunn]

hopefully they fly back to the NE.

[bohai]

I think what's in Houston's favor is the forward speed once it starts moving. Unike Harvey, it looks like it would get pushed out. I haven't seen a model yet that stalls it over Houston. Now, Corpus Christi is a different story, and the latest GFS looks really bad for overall rainfall as it sits on top of them for over a day and a half.

There will be rain away from the center. If it goes into Corpus Christi, there will be several bands of rain training across southeast TX. The center of Harvey was never over Houston. It made landfall in Rockport and meandered around that part of the state for 3 or so days. The heaviest rains were over southeast Texas during that timeframe..well away from the center.

NHC indicates Harvey made landfall three times, near Rockport, south of Houston and near Cameron LA. I lived north of Houston at the time so I remember it well. From the NHC "After moving offshore, Harvey made a third landfall just west of Cameron, Louisiana on the morning of the 30th and brought more heavy rainfall to the Northern Gulf States."

[Ptarmigan]

We are already at Greek letters Beta. The last time that happened was in 2005. We did not get Beta until late October 2005! We have 10 storms so far in September!

We could see over 30 storms possibly.

[SoupBone]

So how would the LLC chasing the convection to the NE affect the models? They all still have the system jumping NE, then back west. So what changes?

Look at the flow on that mid WV loop. If it jumps it hits tomorrow night or Sunday on the NGC and continues out along the front. Some energy might , but every model I ran this afternoon runs the main surface low into a block. If it was up at like 27/28N right now, it might have a chance. But it seems unlikely to me.

Yeah I remember people talking about a small window to miss the Texas coast, but it still doesn't seem north enough to catch a ride on out. That's why I was asking, this jump might just mean it never rides the coast like the GFS shows. How many miles more NE is it than the NHC path?

[ElectricStorm]

Oh no... 996.0mb

[SoupBone]

I wonder if the HWRF sniffed this out. It's jump NE on it's last run was very pronounced, then it headed almost due west, then buried itself into Central Texas.

[Aric Dunn]

all the recon data suggest something will likely reform or the center getting pulled to the NE..

[catskillfire51]

all the recon data suggest something will likely reform or the center getting pulled to the NE..

Can you explain? I always like your input and I see the two lower pressure areas but the southern one actually has a wind direction change to me that would be the stronger one wouldn't it?