ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[nutkin517]

Can we please get a break with the flooding in SETX? Harvey in 2017 and Imelda last year was enough. I don't think I can go through all of that again. During Harvey, I did not sleep at all for a whole week because it rained the hardest at night. It sounded like someone was dumping a gigantic bucket of water on my roof continuously. It was the loudest and heaviest rain I had ever seen until Imelda. Luckily, that only lasted one night though.

[Aric Dunn]

all the recon data suggest something will likely reform or the center getting pulled to the NE..

Can you explain? I always like your input and I see the two lower pressure areas but the southern one actually has a wind direction change to me that would be the stronger one wouldn't it?

there are multiple wind maximum well away from the center fixes. this wind maximum also have curvature. they are also down shear and typically this type of set up leads to reformations.

the ridge is building in quickly so any furter reformations are unlikely after this one.

so now we wait to see how strong the ridge is and the orientation of the ridge.

[ElectricStorm]

4mb drop between recon passes

[catskillfire51]

all the recon data suggest something will likely reform or the center getting pulled to the NE..

Can you explain? I always like your input and I see the two lower pressure areas but the southern one actually has a wind direction change to me that would be the stronger one wouldn't it?

there are multiple wind maximum well away from the center fixes. this wind maximum also have curvature. they are also down shear and typically this type of set up leads to reformations.

the ridge is building in quickly so any furter reformations are unlikely after this one.

so now we wait to see how strong the ridge is and the orientation of the ridge.

So is that 996mb latest one the center or you think it will move further?

[Aric Dunn]

Can you explain? I always like your input and I see the two lower pressure areas but the southern one actually has a wind direction change to me that would be the stronger one wouldn't it?

there are multiple wind maximum well away from the center fixes. this wind maximum also have curvature. they are also down shear and typically this type of set up leads to reformations.

the ridge is building in quickly so any furter reformations are unlikely after this one.

so now we wait to see how strong the ridge is and the orientation of the ridge.

So is that 996mb latest one the center or you think it will move further?

from the varrying wind directions. the circ is pretty elongated with a distinct wind maximum to the NE... another reformation is possible.

[setxweathergal64]

Can we please get a break with the flooding in SETX? Harvey in 2017 and Imelda last year was enough. I don't think I can go through all of that again. During Harvey, I did not sleep at all for a whole week because it rained the hardest at night. It sounded like someone was dumping a gigantic bucket of water on my roof continuously. It was the loudest and heaviest rain I had ever seen until Imelda. Luckily, that only lasted one night though.

I'm in bmt..and our locals seem to think this will not be a Harvey.

[hurricanehunter69]

The storm is definitely tilted. We can almost track the mid level vort from long range radar out of NOLA. As always, if and when this thing stacks....look out. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[tropicwatch]

Not seeing any signs of the front flattening out yet and Beta seems to be moving with it.

[Dean4Storms]

Ok, where’s the west turn and why do I have the feeling this storm might defy the models like Sally just a few days out?

[Aric Dunn]

Not seeing any signs of the front flattening out yet and Beta seems to be moving with it.

that wont be for several days... not until after it apprioches the texas coast.

the ridging comes first.

[aspen]

Beta’s odds of becoming a hurricane have both increased and decreased. On one hand, it has strengthened far more than expected. On the other hand, this center shift could make it go right into Louisiana and not even stall in the Gulf, despite models forecasting for DAYS for that to happen.

[ElectricStorm]

Ok, where’s the west turn and why do I have the feeling this storm might defy the models like Sally just a few days out?

Doesn't look like it's turning any time soon but should tomorrow. I'm not liking the fact that it's likely already up to 60mph. Wasn't supposed to hit that for 36 hours.

[hurricanehunter69]

If it keeps moving NNE, we're talkin tropical storm into the north gulf coast. If the Beta blocker puts on the brakes, we're talkin about a stacked hurricane sitting under a ridge of high pressure that only significant amounts of dry/cool air could stop it from going major?

[nutkin517]

Can we please get a break with the flooding in SETX? Harvey in 2017 and Imelda last year was enough. I don't think I can go through all of that again. During Harvey, I did not sleep at all for a whole week because it rained the hardest at night. It sounded like someone was dumping a gigantic bucket of water on my roof continuously. It was the loudest and heaviest rain I had ever seen until Imelda. Luckily, that only lasted one night though.

I'm in bmt..and our locals seem to think this will not be a Harvey.

I’m in Beaumont too and I don’t trust the locals. They didn’t think Harvey was going to be “Harvey” either.

[edu2703]

Forecast peak at 70 kts

[SoupBone]

Beta’s odds of becoming a hurricane have both increased and decreased. On one hand, it has strengthened far more than expected. On the other hand, this center shift could make it go right into Louisiana and not even stall in the Gulf, despite models forecasting for DAYS for that to happen.

It doesn't have a choice. When the ridge builds it, it puts on the brakes. It can't plow through a ridge.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC still sticking with it hooking west. Peak upped to 80mph. This thing is about to dump a ton of rain on the areas affected by Harvey and Imelda. Stay safe to all who are in the path of this mean Greek.

[setxweathergal64]

Can we please get a break with the flooding in SETX? Harvey in 2017 and Imelda last year was enough. I don't think I can go through all of that again. During Harvey, I did not sleep at all for a whole week because it rained the hardest at night. It sounded like someone was dumping a gigantic bucket of water on my roof continuously. It was the loudest and heaviest rain I had ever seen until Imelda. Luckily, that only lasted one night though.

I'm in bmt..and our locals seem to think this will not be a Harvey.

I’m in Beaumont too and I don’t trust the locals. They didn’t think Harvey was going to be “Harvey” either.

Yeah, not a lot of people did. I have a graphic of a map with some high predictions that was forecasted.

[aspen]

NHC still sticking with it hooking west. Peak upped to 80mph.
https://i.imgur.com/IFr6cvt.png

I really don’t like how long the NHC has it be a hurricane and stall over 29-30C waters. Yes, dry air will be present, but low shear once the trough moves out means it won’t be shoved into the core that hard, and there is a chance the core could retain a nice moisture pocket. If such a pocket forms, we might have to watch out for another Sally-like surprise.

And then there’s the fact that Beta seemingly wants to tour the landfall points of Hanna, Laura, and potentially Sally. What a jerk.

[jaguars_22]

If I’m in Victoria is it too early to tell if I will get any impacts? Since it relocated further NE