ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

And the jokes keep coming...

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1307325810928480256

[drezee]

When does the next recon flight take off?

C. 19/2130Z

[SoupBone]

So someone explain the dry air from a front/high versus a SAL dry air intrusion. Is frontal dry air as potent or less than what SAL puts out?

[catskillfire51]

Looks like sheer is still pushing the new burst of convection to the north east

[Craters]

Geez, it's tough to tell outflow boundaries from banding close to the CoC.

Which, I guess, brings up a question: with the dry air being ingested, if a cell were to collapse, would there be a visible outflow boundary in that kind of vortical environment?

[FLpanhandle91]

Tower appears to be washing out due to the shear.
Leaving a nice warm-core feature though.
In pulse mode now.
When the next tower fires will indicate how rapidly this may intensify.

I was under the impression that evaporation in the storm's convection results in cold pool. How does convection washing out here leave warm core features? Also can you explain how cold pool features form and what it means for convergence outside of the cold pool? I'm just now learning about these dynamics of TCs.

[FLpanhandle91]

Geez, it's tough to tell outflow boundaries from banding close to the CoC.

Which, I guess, brings up a question: with the dry air being ingested, if a cell were to collapse, would there be a visible outflow boundary in that kind of vortical environment?

I know they're very obvious on radar in non-tropical mesoscale environments.

[wxman57]

Was looking quite impressive for a bit, but now I see lots of outflow boundaries as the convection collapsed. It's barely moving north now, a sign that a turn is imminent. The convection building NW of the center was the first clue that the ridge was starting to build to the west. It certainly could become a Cat 1 within 24-36 hrs as it tracks west. Beyond that, though, there is quite a bit of dry air over Texas that is flowing offshore. It'll be sucking that dry air up when it nears Texas.

[Hurricane Mike]

Was looking quite impressive for a bit, but now I see lots of outflow boundaries as the convection collapsed. It's barely moving north now, a sign that a turn is imminent. The convection building NW of the center was the first clue that the ridge was starting to build to the west. It certainly could become a Cat 1 within 24-36 hrs as it tracks west. Beyond that, though, there is quite a bit of dry air over Texas that is flowing offshore. It'll be sucking that dry air up when it nears Texas.

Hurricane Claudette looked similar in July 2003 prior to the westward turn and becoming a hurricane.

[jaguars_22]

Claudette was a strengthening cat 1 at landfall I witnessed her center come right over Victoria. I don’t think this will be close to her. I’m hearing about a Don scenario???

[Cpv17]

Claudette was a strengthening cat 1 at landfall I witnessed her center come right over Victoria. I don’t think this will be close to her. I’m hearing about a Don scenario???

Oh geez, I hope not. We need some rain here. Don went poof.

[jaguars_22]

Our luck here it’s either a monster or a dud... I have a feeling this is a dud... it looks like the center may come right over me again in victoria but not aure

[catskillfire51]

Imelda was a year ago today, dumped 40" of rain and flooded many, I don't see that much rain at least for Beta but Imeldas predicted rains were about the same as Beta.

[Cpv17]

Our luck here it’s either a monster or a dud... I have a feeling this is a dud... it looks like the center may come right over me again in victoria but not aure

Yeah I could see it being a dud. Lots of dry air out there.

[SoupBone]

Imelda was a year ago today, dumped 40" of rain and flooded many, I don't see that much rain at least for Beta but Imeldas predicted rains were about the same as Beta.

I don't remember but was Imelda getting hit by dry air from a front?

[catskillfire51]

Imelda was a year ago today, dumped 40" of rain and flooded many, I don't see that much rain at least for Beta but Imeldas predicted rains were about the same as Beta.

I don't remember but was Imelda getting hit by dry air from a front?

Looking at old satellite images it doesn't look like it.

[tomatkins]

Imelda was a year ago today, dumped 40" of rain and flooded many, I don't see that much rain at least for Beta but Imeldas predicted rains were about the same as Beta.

I don't remember but was Imelda getting hit by dry air from a front?

Looking at old satellite images it doesn't look like it.

if I remember correctly imelda was able to tap into some moist mid level air from a Pacific storm that had come ashore into Mexico a few days earlier.

[catskillfire51]

First image is Beta now and second image is Imelda (2019) at landfall.

[us89]

https://i.imgur.com/9KGLQ69.png
https://i.imgur.com/uKI7MAy.jpg

First image is Beta now and second image is Imelda (2019) at landfall.

Interesting that both storms also had a hurricane in the open Atlantic at the same time.

[mpic]

Voluntary evac notices going out for parts of unprotected Galveston and Seabrook areas as we speak. Also Boivar Peninsula.